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13 Jul 11
19:41
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11 Jul 11
Stage 12: Cugnaux -- Luz-Ardiden for a long distance of 211 km.
In 1541, the naturalist Conrad Gesner, decided upon what was then an extraordinary decision. Writing to a friend he said; 'I am resolved that as long as God grants me life, I will each year climb some mountains, or at least one, at the season when the flowers are in bloom, in order that I may examine these, and provide noble exercise for my body at the same time enjoyment for my soul.'
Gesner was talking about the Alps, and he wouldn't be riding a bicycle since bicycles hadn't yet been invented, nor did roads exist over high passes; but he did see something worthwhile in them, and it is in the mountains where we will likely see the GC winner of the Tour for this year.
Whether or not it is going to be in this stage remains as yet unknown.
The first major climb, a summit finish. Many questions will be answered, odds will fluctuate as a result. Time to drill down: What's up with Contador, has he still got it, and will he want it this year? Did Andy need to show form prior to the Tour? How will his brother perform and will their combined force on Leopard blow the competition out of the water, or more appropriately off the mountains? Will Cadel Evans confirm that he doesn't have the arsenal to contain attackers or attack himself? Will Basso put in a fair performance now that he some fair Polish-ed assistance? Does the wily Amets Txurruka still have the confidence to attempt to snaffle a mountain stage?
Maybe we won't have all these answers by the end of tomorrow's stage, but things will become a lot clearer in relation to gaining a more broader picture of who is where, and where they'll likely be in the mountains, in terms of ambition and effectiveness; and therefore their likelihood of a place on the podium in Paris. We will gain some much needed structure to the important scene in the Tour.
Cheers,
SP
In 1541, the naturalist Conrad Gesner, decided upon what was then an extraordinary decision. Writing to a friend he said; 'I am resolved that as long as God grants me life, I will each year climb some mountains, or at least one, at the season when the flowers are in bloom, in order that I may examine these, and provide noble exercise for my body at the same time enjoyment for my soul.'
Gesner was talking about the Alps, and he wouldn't be riding a bicycle since bicycles hadn't yet been invented, nor did roads exist over high passes; but he did see something worthwhile in them, and it is in the mountains where we will likely see the GC winner of the Tour for this year.
Whether or not it is going to be in this stage remains as yet unknown.
The first major climb, a summit finish. Many questions will be answered, odds will fluctuate as a result. Time to drill down: What's up with Contador, has he still got it, and will he want it this year? Did Andy need to show form prior to the Tour? How will his brother perform and will their combined force on Leopard blow the competition out of the water, or more appropriately off the mountains? Will Cadel Evans confirm that he doesn't have the arsenal to contain attackers or attack himself? Will Basso put in a fair performance now that he some fair Polish-ed assistance? Does the wily Amets Txurruka still have the confidence to attempt to snaffle a mountain stage?
Maybe we won't have all these answers by the end of tomorrow's stage, but things will become a lot clearer in relation to gaining a more broader picture of who is where, and where they'll likely be in the mountains, in terms of ambition and effectiveness; and therefore their likelihood of a place on the podium in Paris. We will gain some much needed structure to the important scene in the Tour.
Cheers,
SP
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Replies: 69
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Prediction?
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I predict Txurruka has no chance, he crashed out 3 days ago.
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I predict Txurruka has no chance, he crashed out 3 days ago.
I predict the same. How did I miss that...? Oh! wait, I was applauding the fact that Vino was out in that same stage. Some people like him. I wasn't happy he was hurt though, just that he had abandoned. Prediction? I predict Contador in a bruising encounter from the Schleck double-team. It won't be easy, may not even be pretty, but I tend to think that you don't just lose the ability he showed previously, and even prior. He'll want to make a statement this early. But I'll be having a close look at laying Evans undoubtedly. Looks like free money to me, and I'm confident of not having to pay the liability. Cheers, SP |
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I predict the principals d*cking about a bit more, and a breakaway doing the job again.
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Yeah if a mountain stage will end with a breakaway win then this is it for sure.
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A number of things could happen but here's my stab
being Bastille Day the French will try a madcap escape ... expect some grouping of Moncoutie, di Gregorio, Kadri to form. A second group of "just below GC" will go on the Tourmalet - the likes of Cunego, Velits and possibly Tiralongo as Astana only have the stage wins to aim for now. Leopard will test Bertis's knee (which will be fine) on the Tourmalet but Berie will wait until the last 2/3 km of the stage to launch his attack. Being the Pyrenees Sammy Sanchez will launch an attack on the descent of the Tourmalet. Luz Ardiden is special to Euskatel as that was their first Tour stage win in 2001. Sammy to win the stage; Moncoutie in polka dot; Bertie & Andy to put time into Evans |
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All valid, all expanding the scope of the picture being drawn to an exciting stage start. SP.
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Contador to attack and gain 5 metres then to eyeball Shleck,Shleck eyeballs him back as he levels and repeat.
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Tommy Voeckler will be one to watch, He will hold the yellow jersey or die trying :-)
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Got to be a breakaway today with all the faves marking each other out of it.
Looking at Basques in their own terrain and Frenchmen on Bastille day obviously so let's see who gets up the road. Alan Perez, Cristophe Riblon and Remy Di Gregorio spring to mind as obvious ones at big prices but lets see what happens. |
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Two other things interest me.....
1) How the alliance between Sam Sanchez and AC works out. and 2) How the two Italians Cunego and Basso (particularly Cunego) approach it. I've got a feeling that Cadel and the Schlecks will know they are in a race after today. |
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Tommy Voeckler will be one to watch, He will hold the yellow jersey or die trying :-)
You know with Voeckler he's going to leave his heart on the mountain. Proud Frenchman on France's national holiday whilst he's in yellow, there'll be blood, there'll be tears; it'd be a mistake to discount him doing something special to hold onto the Maillot-Jaune. Nice one gOldstarr. Cheers, SP. |
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my tearaway tigers for today
mollema@ 80s arroyo@ 90s riblon@ 110s tiralonga@ 120s gl all |
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Group of six being allowed a good lead - Geraint Thomas virtual yellow jersey
More of a watch and see stage for me It will be cold, windy and possibly wet on Tourmalet / Luz Ardiden - a particularly testing first mountains stage Evans will hold up pretty well today (or at least it will be his best performance in the mountains) |
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This is what the Tour is really all about. Bring on the lumpy bits!
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Had my usual speculative triple figure pyraneean Euskaltel escapologist bet...but went for Martinez.
One day I'll pick the right one... Looking forward to Luz Ardiden. |
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Cunego or Uran for me.
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Cunego and Taamarae(sic) for me.
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About time MIM you put your's in, especially since you got us started with the question. Cheers, SP.
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Lol I am adding in Gesink and Veltis
GL All |
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Expecting big ride from Sammy Sanchez, three ascents, two fast descents looks like suiting him. He came to the line on that awkward stage before the rest day with a double handful so looks in form.
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i thought it looked like the yellow jersey was going wide round 'Geraint corner' just as they cut for the break!
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Leopard Trek setting a brutal pace
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Good stuff from Thomas. Think he's probably blowing himself away, but still, nice and aggressive.
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Great stuff from Gilbert and Voeckler, can they keep it up?
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Can't believe I didn't get on Sanchez with 6km to go
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great pick clonmullin! made a few quid on sanchez - ta!!
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Since I authored the thread, it's only appropriate I go over it in an appropriate fashion:
@ clonmullin Being the Pyrenees Sammy Sanchez will launch an attack on the descent of the Tourmalet. Luz Ardiden is special to Euskatel as that was their first Tour stage win in 2001. Sammy to win the stage; Moncoutie in polka dot; Bertie & Andy to put time into Evans Tick! @ g0ldstarr Tommy Voeckler will be one to watch, He will hold the yellow jersey or die trying :-) Gold star for you monsieur! @ Handsome Frank Two other things interest me..... 1) How the alliance between Sam Sanchez and AC works out. Interesting interest! @ red and white Expecting big ride from Sammy Sanchez, three ascents, two fast descents looks like suiting him. He came to the line on that awkward stage before the rest day with a double handful so looks in form. The best read pick, in my view! @LazyRamper Can't believe I didn't get on Sanchez with 6km to go Doh! Cheers, SP |
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Chapeau.
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I may be going to the well once too often but the same logic applies tomorrow as for stage 12 so it's Sammy again for me with a saver on Frank Schleck who looks the strongest of the favourites in the mountains this year. Can't believe his price for tomorrow is higher than Contador's who needs to be eating plenty of beef to regain last year's form.
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@red and white
I think you are going to a well which has become a little foul, since according to the analysis of the esteemed Jean-Francois Pescheux: "Every rider who has previously won at Plateau de Beille has gone on to the win the Tour that same year." Question: Do you think Sammy is going to wear the golden fleece on the podium in Paris? If not; don't drink from the well. Cheers, SP |
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Vanendert to win the tour then based on winning on the Plateu De Beille then ? Err
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@gOldstarr
I only went by Jean-Francois Pescheux, mate. That's how it looks in the record books, I don't doubt him. It looks like this established pattern will be no more according to you, since it's an Err from you. Cheers, SP |
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Vanendert
20th position. 12'06 behind. Won by 46' seconds over the first of the Principals. Given that, he would need to win each stage remaining or simply beat the Principals, by double that margin, to stand on the podium in Paris in Yellow. Safe to say that even if I got to write 1000 on my ticket, I wouldn't take it for a quid. Cheers, SP |
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Lies, damn lies and statistics. Another good ride from Sammy though and I can see him finishing on the podium as he's not a bad time trialler.
Nothing special from the main contenders in the Pyrenees. Hope for a bit more attacking in the Alps. I suppose the Schleck brothers had a go but I can't help feeling the two of them together are less than the sum of the parts. For example I wouldn't put my hard earned on a guy who says he'd love his brother to win as much as himself (that was Andy and he looked like he meant it). I prefer someone a bit more single minded and for that reason I'm all in on Evans who I think will hold it together sufficiently in the Alps to win it in the time trial. The only guy in my view who could take time off him on the penultimate stage is Contador who doesn't look the part this year and should be riding in a jersey with either black and white horizontal stripes or arrows. |
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@ red and white
I assure you I am no liar, and statistics, whilst they manifest in odd patterns are used by most bookmakers to frame markets. It's one of the primary factors of influence in forming a market for a scrupulous bookmaker. On this occasion, however, it's nearly impossible for the pattern to continue to be extended. Agreed, another good ride from Sammy, I was amazed the Principals would have let him go after he won the 12th stage, and which I thought you read best. It hasn't been a contest in the mountains that's true, but it would be foolish for me to imagine that some rider feeling good during an Alp stage isn't going to attack and bury himself in pain for a good half hour to try and set up the GC win for himself. Conversely, Evans is my best bet to lay, and with the value about Frank I can't go past him to get a couple of quid on to back. Yes, Evans will do well in the ITT but I think that from the available evidence, he won't be able to defend a gap which by that time should be more than over 2 minutes. I agree that Contador has been very average and suitable for a host of positions to fill such simple attire. I was a supporter of his chances, but not anymore. Cheers, SP |
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Nothing meant by the off the cuff quote swingingpick. The tour has been odd at the top this year with non of the main contenders showing dominance at this stage, hence the Plateau de Beille stat was a busted flush. Voeckler is a battler but it's odd how easily he kept position in the Pyrenees. Perhaps it's a 'clean' year for a change. Let's hope so. I feel sure Contador will be stripped of last year's beefy win. The Alps will be a different test and Evans has been broken before, that's why I'm hoping he can cling on as I reckon he can take a minute out of Andy in the tt and two out of Frank.
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@ red and white
Precisley, Evans has been broken, yet he has never done the breaking in the Tour, to my knowledge. You bring up a good point, one I hadn't considered, this could be a clean year indeed, and therefore the reason behind it being such an open race. And so, I see the time between the Schlecks the other way around, since I'm hopeful of Frank (perhaps I'll have a saver on Andy, also) burying himself into an intensive period of pain, where he just goes and whoever goes with him will have to be better suffer than him to win the stage, in the Alps. In my view, it won't be so much like it has been with one of the brothers looking back to see what the attack has done to the pack, it'll just be full committment. Meaning: Voeckler will battle on, as will Evans, and the other Schleck won't get involved, causing indecision to the rest. Which leaves Contador as the only other real contender to make a sharp gap and match the attack, and settle in to a world of pain. If no such attack occurs and the times which you are talking about are left, coming out of the Alps, and into the ITT, Evans will be in the best position to create his own win, with little doubt. I see magic happening through suffering of the kind which wins races, in the places where attendance is by invitation only through strong past results in the real mountains. Frank represents value, with a little saver on his brother in case brotherly love is something I don't understand. I've said Evans is my best bet to lay for the win in Paris, however, as they enter the Alps I'll much prefer to lay for the stage where his dividend reflects that for the lay for the Tour. This will likely be stage 18, but Contador is pretty much out of time and he may get desperate before then, which in my view would change the dynamics of my understanding. It's unlikley that he would be left alone for a breakaway attempt before the main Alp stages, however. Moreover, he doesn't have it this year or else he would have done something by now, I tend to believe. Schlecks still seem likely, Evans has been beaten, but leave him to repair where and when he can, and he can turn it into a victory in the ITT. Cheers, SP |
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*Evans has bee beaten.
Evans has been broken before. |