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10 Jul 11
14:04
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16 Nov 08
seems v short. he doesnt look in great form and has to make up over a minute on schleck - cant see him doing that
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if he can stop crashing, he will win easy imo. Wait to see for the real mountain stages, the stage yesterday was not steep enough to make a difference.
considering there was apparently nothing between contador and schleck last year in the mountains i cant see him taking over 1 min out of schleck this time round with him looking unimpressive so far. and remember, no blood transfusions this time!!
and he says his knee is worrying him after todays crash
Doesn't look good for him. He is grimacing on the climbs & they have hardly begun.
Two falls on the same knee a big concern.
Also we don't know whether or not he put everything into the Giro possibly expecting to be excluded from this.
The Schleck boys can work as a team to ensure victory for their team.
If one of them attacks in the mountains , Contador will have to decide whether it is wise to go with him knowing it may be set up to wipe them both out leaving the field clear.
I enjoy Le Tour too much to spoil it with a bet , but I would be laying Contador if I did.
Two falls on the same knee a big concern.
Also we don't know whether or not he put everything into the Giro possibly expecting to be excluded from this.
The Schleck boys can work as a team to ensure victory for their team.
If one of them attacks in the mountains , Contador will have to decide whether it is wise to go with him knowing it may be set up to wipe them both out leaving the field clear.
I enjoy Le Tour too much to spoil it with a bet , but I would be laying Contador if I did.
looks grim for him
hurt knee, minute down, schleck looking fresh, poor team for support in mountains, tired from giro with half an expectation he wouldnt be allowed to ride here
and as denis says, when you consider he only won by 39secs (with 39secs gained by chaingate last year) it looks bleak
hurt knee, minute down, schleck looking fresh, poor team for support in mountains, tired from giro with half an expectation he wouldnt be allowed to ride here
and as denis says, when you consider he only won by 39secs (with 39secs gained by chaingate last year) it looks bleak
My thoughts on Contador - I don't bet on cycling by the way...
Can't have him, although Vandenbroucke abandonining today is a plus for Contador. He's already behind, and his moves have been covered with ease. NB: Contador is obviously at his best on the really tough climbs.
It looks very much like he has trained thinking Giro first, and Tour second (for obvious reasons). He's had some bad luck, and SaxoBank are nothing like the team that they were in the past.
The Schleck brothers would clearly die for one another, which helps their collective cause. Evans also looks way more comfortable than Contador, though he's not the natural climber that the Spaniard is.
The wildcard is this though... Come the Alps, there will be teams that find themselves with nothing to gain on a stage or two. Given how toxic Contador looks to pro cycling as a whole, it would be no surprise if, as stages pan out, some riders start working for an ABC - 'anyone but Contador'. Commercially, teams could easily take the view that they are better off stopping Contador from winning the Tour in the first place than him winning and then getting chucked out.
Leopard-Trek (the Cancellara/Schleck team) are a little unusual in that they are largely funded by a man who doesn't really give a t*ss about brand awareness, and might, uniquely, be prepared to deflect attention to teams that helped them if they got the win. The Schleck brothers are popular within the peleton.
Granted Evans isn't so popular, and who knows who else might emerge.
Can't have him, although Vandenbroucke abandonining today is a plus for Contador. He's already behind, and his moves have been covered with ease. NB: Contador is obviously at his best on the really tough climbs.
It looks very much like he has trained thinking Giro first, and Tour second (for obvious reasons). He's had some bad luck, and SaxoBank are nothing like the team that they were in the past.
The Schleck brothers would clearly die for one another, which helps their collective cause. Evans also looks way more comfortable than Contador, though he's not the natural climber that the Spaniard is.
The wildcard is this though... Come the Alps, there will be teams that find themselves with nothing to gain on a stage or two. Given how toxic Contador looks to pro cycling as a whole, it would be no surprise if, as stages pan out, some riders start working for an ABC - 'anyone but Contador'. Commercially, teams could easily take the view that they are better off stopping Contador from winning the Tour in the first place than him winning and then getting chucked out.
Leopard-Trek (the Cancellara/Schleck team) are a little unusual in that they are largely funded by a man who doesn't really give a t*ss about brand awareness, and might, uniquely, be prepared to deflect attention to teams that helped them if they got the win. The Schleck brothers are popular within the peleton.
Granted Evans isn't so popular, and who knows who else might emerge.
Its a great price now at 3's for Contador. He is the better climber than Schleck and by far by Evans, when the percentages go high. Remember last year Contador didn't have to beat Andy in the mountains, he just had to follow him, which he did without any problems. Imo last year was the year to beat Contador, Andy had all the opportunities, but couldn't take them. To quote Hinault on that performance: "He rode so badly last year, when Contador was there for the taking."
This year Contador actually has a team riding for him, that can take him to the last mountain, where he can finish off an attack by himself. And im confident, that Contador can drop Andy when it goes up. Also it should not be forgotten, that there is still a tt where Contador will be sure to take around a minute or more on Andy and probably double on his brother.
This year Contador actually has a team riding for him, that can take him to the last mountain, where he can finish off an attack by himself. And im confident, that Contador can drop Andy when it goes up. Also it should not be forgotten, that there is still a tt where Contador will be sure to take around a minute or more on Andy and probably double on his brother.
sorry i just cant see it. he looks hurt (not surprisingly), out of form and rather demoralised to me. I've laid him top 3 and top 6, not convinced he will even finish
sir denis spot on
if hes hurting, struggling and realizes he cant win he'll bag it, wouldnt surprise me at all
if hes hurting, struggling and realizes he cant win he'll bag it, wouldnt surprise me at all
He looks woefully out of shape to me, the climbs at the end of the stages have been very short but they have had some steep bits and he put a dig in on one the other day and couldn't sustain it...he couldn't even drop Hushovd. He might sort himself out by Thurday but I'm not risking cash on it.
Good post by Historymaker.
I remember a year when the other teams didn't want Roche to win the Giro or Vuelta and all combined to stop him winning.
The alliances and favours done in the Tour are often repaid in the Worlds or by a contract for next year.
I agree that Contador hasn't looked comfortable particularly when making an effort.
I remember a year when the other teams didn't want Roche to win the Giro or Vuelta and all combined to stop him winning.
The alliances and favours done in the Tour are often repaid in the Worlds or by a contract for next year.
I agree that Contador hasn't looked comfortable particularly when making an effort.
i backed him for top 3 finish, shall i consider laying him now?
Another thing to consider and I don't think it's that far fetched.
The spectators on the mountains could play a part here , whether deliberate or not I think they will give him a very hard time to such an extent that they hinder his progress
The spectators on the mountains could play a part here , whether deliberate or not I think they will give him a very hard time to such an extent that they hinder his progress
Contadors a real champ and I wouldn't back against him despite all the signs to the contary. He's capable
of a big day in the mountains and turning the race on its head. He'll still be highly motivated and the
pressure is on the Schlek brothers.
of a big day in the mountains and turning the race on its head. He'll still be highly motivated and the
pressure is on the Schlek brothers.
It is worth remembering that the little digs he's had so far have not been on home turf, so to speak, and it would have been a serious worry for any of the GC contenders if he did let them get away. He's never going to be blowing anyone away on short 8% climbs.
I still think that he doesn't look all that good though. A few questions may be answered tomorrow. I know that the first proper mountain stage is usually a damp squib, but the organisers have massively backloaded the climbs this year, so that might mix things up.
As I said before, I don't bet on cycling, on the principle that I'm definitely less knowledgable than your average cycling punter but the outlier price to me seems to be Kloden outright at a back/lay midpoint of 170ish. He's nowhere near big enough.
If you gave me £100 and stuck a gun to my head and forced me, in one bet, to back or lay A.Schleck(2.38)/Contador(2.98)/Evans(5.9), I'd be laying Contador.
I still think that he doesn't look all that good though. A few questions may be answered tomorrow. I know that the first proper mountain stage is usually a damp squib, but the organisers have massively backloaded the climbs this year, so that might mix things up.
As I said before, I don't bet on cycling, on the principle that I'm definitely less knowledgable than your average cycling punter but the outlier price to me seems to be Kloden outright at a back/lay midpoint of 170ish. He's nowhere near big enough.
If you gave me £100 and stuck a gun to my head and forced me, in one bet, to back or lay A.Schleck(2.38)/Contador(2.98)/Evans(5.9), I'd be laying Contador.
I wouldn't even back him for the podium after today. He really is struggling.
surprised he hasnt gone even bigger tbh, just laid 6.6 again
how is he pulling back 2mins+ on frank, just under on other 2
how is he pulling back 2mins+ on frank, just under on other 2
ah yes - Floyd's epo motorbike , great memories!
Final TT.
Only real danger is Andy, presuming he can get to his best level.
Only real danger is Andy, presuming he can get to his best level.
After what I've seen on this tour so far, 2.50 to be in the first 3 doesn't look a bargain to me. I'd rather be against than for in that market.
Have to go by the evidence of your own eyes and Contador could not mark Frank's attack. Race looks between him and his brother to me.
not 1 attack today
2mins behind still
cant see how he can possibly win it, 6.0
tommy voeckler
2mins behind still
cant see how he can possibly win it, 6.0
tommy voeckler
Wish I was one of the people who had Tommy Voeckler backed at 1000s
he 4 min behide Voeckley...and Voeckler and he team did most of the work
Voeckler a real chance if he keep riding like this
Voeckler a real chance if he keep riding like this
he still at 14/1 why take Contador at 5/1 who 4min behide and looks like he was holding on to dear life today
a.schleck, evans and voeckler
thats the podium imo
contador had to attack today but couldnt, yet hes still at 6.0, wheres he finding 2mins on main guys and 4mins on voeckler when he cant attack
evans/voeckler didnt have to but still looked better than contador...andy schleck also looked strong and improving
thats the podium imo
contador had to attack today but couldnt, yet hes still at 6.0, wheres he finding 2mins on main guys and 4mins on voeckler when he cant attack
evans/voeckler didnt have to but still looked better than contador...andy schleck also looked strong and improving
Those that are backing Contador for the 1st 3 at 2.00 after today's stage are seeing something I'm not. I don't think he's got it in him to make up the time of 3 or 4 in front of him. If his form is as bad as it looks, he won't be making up a minute on The Schlecks and co in the time trial. - unless he gets some 'help' in the alchemy department.
The markets love of Contador continued to baffle me today, he was heavy favourite for the stage for most of it despite not being able to offer any sort of attack so far in the race. I've never seen such an obvious case of people betting on past events rather than what is in front of their eyes. His pedalling is awkward and he's hanging in there hoping for a recovery by next Friday...it might come but even if it does...will it be enough??
Agree Contador of a couple of years ago would have won today by a couple of minutes. He's not going to be able to take any time out of Andy Schleck in the mountains - can he make up 2 minutes in the time trial?
irrelevant anyway
forget andy schleck, hes not even close to closing the gap between himself and evans in the mountains and theres no way hes making up 2mins to evans in the time trial, he'll lose more time
dont know hes still 5.5 tbh
forget andy schleck, hes not even close to closing the gap between himself and evans in the mountains and theres no way hes making up 2mins to evans in the time trial, he'll lose more time
dont know hes still 5.5 tbh
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