My MMA betting thread

Strikeforce: heavyweight GP quarterfinals

5. Ubereem vs fabricio werdum £20 @1.40

congrats on the ufc 131 predictions I went for maia. I think kj noons might be value at around 1.7, defiantly agree with werdum getting beat though

thanks, i put a tenner on kj to win, the odds seem pretty good, but masvidal is no pushover, if kj can keep a high pace and avoid the takeowns, i think he'll win a decision. the last fight i saw masvidal in he gassed slightly in at the end of round 2

6.K.J Noons vs Jorge Masvidal £10 @ 1.67
7.Josh Barnet vs Brett Rogers £10 @ 1.33

Well it was a bit of a crap fight but  overeem won via one sided decision.
Barnet manhandled rogers anddominated the whole fight, ending up in rogers's guard and getting a arm choke
K.J noons got beat up pretty bad, he took a lot of damage in the 1st round and got dropped, he couldnt seem to get going from there.probably should of only put a fiver on kj noons as that one bet wiped the profits out from the other 2, especially as the other 2 fights odds were rubbish.

5.Ubereem vs fabricio werdum - WIN
6.K.J Noons vs Jorge Masvidal -LOSE
7.Josh Barnet vs Brett Rogers -WIN

New bank :£129.00

Alright predictions for this weekend. UFC Live Marquardt v Story.
Not going on the main event, hard to predict. Looking with interest how Nate handles the cut and if he can negate Story's takedown attempts. So wont be betting on the main event. But think there is coin to be made on the card.

Im liking; Mitrione, Howard, Roberts and I like Vazquez.

Include at risk: Barry @ 2.50, Lauzon when his odds come up.

Roughie: Nik Lentz over Oliveira (he will smother him and if can avoid the subs I like his chances., and Brenneman over T.J Grant)

BET: Parlay Mitrione, Howard, Lauzon, Vazquez and Brenneman.
Will post odds when they are available.

What do people think?

Betfair have only put up 5 fights on this card atm, some of your picks arent on there [:(] not sure if they're going to put the rest of the fights up or what?

I was going to agree with you on the Marquardt vs Story fight until i saw Nate's odds were at 2.16 as the underdog, going to put a bit at 2.2 to see if it gets matched. story seemed to gas a little bit against alves, so against Nate who is gonna be bigger than Alves, he might be able to wear story out more. also nate has a lot better wrestling than Alves, so might be able to negate story's take-downs and keep it standing.
I am going to pick howard over brown, both have good standup, howard possibly has more power, but i think his ground game is better.
I can't remember much about roberts fights but attonito seems to get better with every fight and is quite well rounded now, not gonna bet on this one but think attonito can pull of UD.
vazquez seems a good pick too but im not sure what the odds will be, and as this is at featherweight Stevenson should be bigger. Joe is coming of 3 losses and vazquez is coming of 2 loss, but he hasnt fought since November, so I'm going to leave this one.
as for Barry vs Kongo, i think Barry will be at a reach disadvantage and may be hesitant to throw his kicks as he may get taken down by Kongo, who has a better ground game,Standing up though i think Barry has a better chin. i pick Kongo for this one.
might pick Olivera over Lentz, depending on the odds, Olivera was extremely cocky coming into his last fight so hopefully he has had a wake up call and will be more focussed coming into this fight.
Going for Mitrione too but the odds aren't too great so im a bit hesitant atm. both of these fighters are underhyped in my opinion, especially mitrione, i think if he wins this he definately needs a bigger name to fight.
Last pick i think i might put a bit on Gamburyan to beat Griffin, his odds are 2.7 at the moment, or it may be worth laying griffin at 1.4 . there is going to be a lot of pressure on griffin as he has lost 3 in a row, but a move to featherweight seems like a good idea for him. Manny is coming of a loss to aldo  but has some good wins before that and his standup may prove to be troubling for tyson.

not a great start to the night,Marquardt was going to be my biggest bet tonight,especially considering the odds had him as the underdog, mainly due to the weight cut( saw a video blog about his weight cut and he looked great, with no problems.) now he went and got himself cut from the UFC for unexplained reasons..
ok bets for tonight, got some nice odds for the kongo fight:

8. Cheick Kongo vs Pat Barry £10@ 1.65
9. Matt Mitrione vs Christian Morecraft £10@ 1.44
10. Tyson Griffin vs Manny Gamburyan £5 @2.1 (risky one, got terrible odds for this, didnt think he'd go as high as 3's.)

May bet on the story brennerman fight when some odds come up for it.

Terrible odds for story. barely worth betting on
11. Rick story vs Charlie Brenneman  £10 @ 1.24

just saw the stevenson vazquez fight, joe got beat, kinda get the feeling that if he stuck to the gameplan he should of won, his mentality seems a bit frail.

i lumped on griffin half way through 2nd round, vicious leg kicks, manny's gonna find it hard to take griffin down now

bet on manny after 1st round but its all tyson atm
    UFC Live / Griffin v Gamburyan / Winner    Tyson Griffin    Back    15318251020    27-Jun-11
01:45         1.38    50.00        1.39    27-Jun-11 01:45

Betfair had the market still up after the decision was announced, full bank at 1.39!! theres 3 quid of 1.01 left if anyone wants it haha

12. John Howard vs Matt Brown £5@ 1.48

cheick kongo best knockout ive ever seen great acc win for me. great fights

amazing comeback by kongo, one of the best i've ever seen. all the other fights were really good too, bets didnt go to well though, big upsets by brenneman and the matt brown one too. also betfair voided all of my bets on griffin as they apparently didnt know the event had started....

8. Cheick Kongo vs Pat Barry WIN
9. Matt Mitrione vs Christian Morecraft WIN
10. Tyson Griffin vs Manny Gamburyan Lost
11. Rick story vs Charlie Brenneman Lost
12. John Howard vs Matt Brown Lost

New bank £119.9

Last card definitely wasn't as cut and dry as 131.
I lost on Howard and Roberts.. But made good money on Vazquez. I don't know whats wrong with Joe Stevenson. He is a shadow of his former self.

132.
Im loading up on... Guillard, Bowles, Bader

Caution:
Silva over Leben.. Silva @ 1.52 hasnt fought in over a year, his chin is suspect and ring rust will be a factor. G-Sot @ 1.38 over Dos Anjos, was almost KO'd at 127.. I question his chin, however Dos Anjos is no where near the striker Siver is.

Roughies I like:
Tavares @ 2.70 over Simpson. Condit @ 2.00 over Kim.

Not interested in betting on the main event. Thoughts?

see value in winner its a must win fight for him an i think he will get it done.

guillard should win by stoppage, and i can bowles and bader winning by decision.

silvers always had prob with his stamina so can see him struggling, and if i had to bet on the cruz faber fight id pick faber but its to close to call.

i think the best 2 bets tonight are bader and guillard, am going to put a bit on silva too, as his striking is more technical than lebens, leben got battered by bisping who after that fight got schooled by silva. im putting a bit on faber and dos anjos mainly for value reasons, as i think there odds should be shorter. but faber has beaten cruz before, in like 90 seconds, although cruz has improved since then i dont think he's gonna be as strong as faber. condit seems good value too at the moment, he probably has better striking than DHK and kim's stamina is a bit suspect. i was going to put a bit on bowles too but dont like the odds.

13.Wanderlai Silva vs Chris Leben £5 @1.68
14. Ryan Bader vs Tito Ortiz £35 @1.26
15. Dominick Cruz vs Urijah Faber £10 @2.26
16.Melvin Guillard vs Shane Roller £20 @1.41
17. George Sotiropolous vs Rafael dos Anjos £5 @2.75
18. Dennis Siver vs Matt Wiman £10 @1.86
19. Don Hyun Kim vs Carlos Condit £8 @2.12
20. Bader by dec/tech dec £5 @2.16

got to agree with you razz. ortiz is still fighting as he always has/he hasnt adapted as the game has.good luck with your bets

Razz do you ever perm your singles up?

Im going for Leben just for value and think Wandy is wild so hoping for a counter! But wont be betting this one
Im calling for Faber think he'll out grapple cruz and sub him!
Going for Bader decision via lay and pray
George Sotiropolous by sub or decision.

Havent had a bet yet tho. Prob will just lump on Faber think he is the value bet of the Card.

Isn´t this supposed to go in play?

dont usually on one card, sometimes i do with a couple fights on a few different cards tho

Tito WOW!

they are in play now, just lost a fair bit on the tito fight, kinda pleased he won tho

totally gutted,was also on the Bowles Guillard Bader treble big time cant believe was let down by bader,

i woundnt back anything shorter than 1/2 in the UFC there all too good,only takes one shot. BOOM!

I quote "Im going for Leben just for value and think Wandy is wild so hoping for a counter!"" lol

think i will just avoid ufc betting full stop now,to make things even worse i tipped up leben 13/8 dos anjos 7/4 and condiut 1/1 and wimped out on having a penny on any of them and just loaded up on the odds on shots instesd

Bader ruined a 4 fold for me, thought he was the banker of the lot.

not a great result, bader lost me a lot, was kinda cool to see tito win though. thats 2 bad cards in a row, gonna be a bit more carefull with some of my bets for the next card.

13.Wanderlai Silva vs Chris Leben Lost
14. Ryan Bader vs Tito Ortiz Lost
15. Dominick Cruz vs Urijah Faber Lost
16.Melvin Guillard vs Shane Roller Win
17. George Sotiropolous vs Rafael dos Anjos Win
18. Dennis Siver vs Matt Wiman Win
19. Don Hyun Kim vs Carlos Condit Win
20. Bader by dec/tech dec Lost

new balance £105.28

Rashad evans and vitor belfort are gonna be my main pics for ufc 133

Think Rashad and Nogueira would be a decent double, Belfort seems more interested in god these days not quiet the animal he once was! Excited about the Rivera v Sakara fight! both love a scrap.

I fancy Franklin TDH. Lil nog hasnt impressed me since he started in the UFC.
Rashad by KO/TKO he hits hard.
Thats my double.

im really surprised by franklins odds, i would of thought he would be favourite going in to this, i think he's one of the most underated fighters in the ufc. although i suppose it makes a bit more sense considering nogueira's boxing skills. little nog is 1-2 in his last 3 fights, but all of those were against good wrestlers, he could easily of won the bader and phil davis fights imo, i thought the judges got it wrong, but he probably should of lost the brillz fight. 
going for belfort because he's a lot bigger than akiyama and a better technical striker with more power, and akiyama has been known to run out of gas in some of his fights.
a evans and belfort double looks nice at just over 2's

Franklins competion over the last 5 fights i think is better than lil nogs even tho he lost to forrest but could of gone either way. Should be a good fight tho but think Rich is a better all round striker and @ 5/4 roughly think his worth a punt. 4/1 by KO/TKO [:)] cheeky £10er maybe lol.

I'm surprised that no one seems to give Phil Davis a chance against Rashad Evans.  I'm no so sure Rashad will win that one. He hasn't fought for such a long time.  New camp after moving away from Jacksons.  Davis is a bit of a monster... bit like Jon Jones.  Still young and can progress quickly.  It would not surprise me if Davis takes a decision here.

I also fancy Nog as he's gone 2 losses in a row and needs to come back from that. It's a tough road when fighters start losing 3 and 4 in a row and they get extra motivated.

he has a chance, but not a very big one imo, he had a hard time taking down little nog in his last fight, and the decision for that fight could of gone either way(i thought nogueira won though). As davis had a hard time taking nog down, i think going against vastly superior wrestler is gonna be hard for him, davis hasnt seemed to improve on his feet as much as i would of expected, and rashad's stand up is pretty good these days.

just looked at a couple of multiples, for the next few events,
saw a nice one with ladbrokes that pays 5-1, however the aldo fight isnt official yet, so he could be facing florian which should mean that the odds will go up slightly. thoughts?

Selection2/9 - Jon Jones
EventQuinton Jackson vs Jon Jones
MarketFight result


Selection2/9 - Anderson Silva
EventYushin Okami vs Anderson Silva
MarketFight result


Selection4/11 - Vitor Belfort
EventYoshihiro Akiyama vs Vitor Belfort
MarketFight result


Selection10/21 - Diego Sanchez
EventMatt Hughes vs Diego Sanchez
MarketFight result


Selection1/4 - Georges St-Pierre
EventNick Diaz vs Georges St-Pierre
MarketFight result


Selection1/3 - Jose Aldo
EventChad Mendes vs Jose Aldo
MarketFight result

phil davis out. TITO in. new main event tito ortiz v rashard evans. big respect to tito for taking the fight not long after he fought, its his destiny to have another run at title. WAR TITO

Yeah Tito manned up big style.  I like the match up as well.  Bit of history going into it.  Would love to see Tito take out Evans just to see the grave digger celebration again.

Some good fights getting announced all the time:

Cro Cop v Roy Nelson
Meathead v Kongo
Aldo v Florian
Guillard v Lauzon
Penn v Condit

It's going to be a good few months!

Yeah Tito manned up big style.  I like the match up as well.  Bit of history going into it.  Would love to see Tito take out Evans just to see the grave digger celebration again.

Some good fights getting announced all the time:

Cro Cop v Roy Nelson
Meathead v Kongo
Aldo v Florian
Guillard v Lauzon
Penn v Condit

It's going to be a good few months!

I really think Florian is gonna give aldo a good fight to tight to call. Wont be betting.
Guillard is gonna kill lauzon.
Going for Condit he is on a good run of finishes and think he will be too big and strong for Penn.
I would like meathead to win think his a funny guy and like his fighting style wont be betting tho.
not interested in Crop cop bores me. lol

phil davis out, little nog out, then they take franklin of the card as they cant seem to find anyone to fight him...
will be interesting to see how tito will do against evans in this rematch, tito would of won the last fight if he hadnt gotten a point dedunction, evans has probably improved a bit since then though, gonna leave this one. dont fancy florian's chances here, i dont think florian's chin is gonna stand up to aldo.
going to go big on guillard as i really cant see him losing, he's on such a hot streak i see this as a step down in competition for him. his speed and power are out of this world at the moment, i dont see many people surviving on there feet against him.
im not gonna touch the condit- BJpenn fight (maybe for trading purposes) though i'd take penn, last time condit fought a high level technical striker he got picked appart (against kampman) i dont see condit being able to take penn down, especially if fitch could'nt, and i dont think condit is as big as fitch .also BJ has one of the best chin's in MMA, and i dont think i can ever remember seeing him rocked. thinking about it i might put a bit on BJ now
im gonna stay the hell away from cro cop/nelson. probably gonna be cro cop's last ever fight so i hope he wins as he's done so much for the sport.

Leben v Munoz... that's what we get as our headliner !

Should be a decent battle but I'd like to see the big names over here.

not liking all these changes to the 133 card, the only fight im betting on atm is the belfort akiyama, i think hallman, gustaffson, mcdonald could have some value, but i'll have to re watch a lot of there old fights before i decide.

strikeforce this weekend i fancy fedor against hendo, i know he has lost his last 2 fights but his weight should be to much for hendo, an i can even see him stopping him, 2/5 for fedor isn't bad i guess.
The next fighter i fancy is paul daley, i know he struggles against wrestlers, woodley is not as good as koscheck at  wrestling  an i feel if daley can just keep it on the feet even for a small amount of time he will ko woodley. I might be a bit biased towards daley because he is one of my favorite fighters, at 2/1 tho id rather be on daley, than at 4/11 on woodley.
Looking forward to the women's fight as well miesha tate is hot, wont be betting on it tho, to close to call.

Hendo 15/8
Kennedy 4/11
Daley 15/8

£10 treble
Paddy Power.

Wish me luck.

Surly fedor at 2/5 has gotta be value

Fair play and respect to Hendo but Herb Dean stopped that waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early imo.

Has to be one of the poorest produced Strikeforce events for a long while too. Seemed to go on way to long too.

Woodley has to be one of the worse fighters to have an undefeated record and be on a main card. seriously.

Zuffa's intentions quite clear. destroy the opposition. Coker keeps saying the buy out will be great for MMA in the long run. Yeah right. Heard Kharitanov might be the next one out (before the Barnett fight) they dont like how he's been doing Kickboxing matches in between fights. the HW tourney is a complete joke.

The Overeeem sacking is messed up. The guy has a broken rib with ligament damage.

Zuffa dont like negotiatating with fighters there way or the highway.

FEDOR value at 2/5 you must be joking surely? Henderson @ 2/1 is what u call value. I'd back him at that against anyone apart bones jones A Silva. and the big ufc H/Ws. You know your gonna see a fight when Hendo is fighting win or lose.

Woodley is another kos IMO. Boring fighter.

rubbish stoppage from herb normally he is one of the best around but that was to early in my opinion, saying that tho hendo looked a lot better and i still think he would of finished fedor at some point.
woodley wont gain to many fans with his borein performance, but he still got the job done, i was pleased with daley's wrestling improvement tho, an he keeps working on it he can be a force agin. would love to see him fight nate now in bamma.

i dont think it was stopped that early, maybe a few seconds, but fedor to me looked pretty out  of it when he rolled over.it was a really good fight though, reminded me of daley and diaz a bit.
the daley fight was strange, because i dont agree that woodley's takedowns should of won the fight as he didnt really do anything with them, i cant really argue with the decision because when the fight was on the feet, daley threw less punches than woodley, daley looked like he was waiting to counter woodley, and i think that if he opened up in each round more he could of won, he threw the fight away imo.

Fedor fight was a good one. Think Henderson caught him with an uppercut and Fedor was out for a few seconds. That's why the ref stopped it. Think the ref had to stop it. Once the figher looks out he has to jump in. To dangerous not to.

missed 133 so i had to watch a recording on sunday, only had 1 bet which i didnt post:

Vitor Belfort vs Yoshihiro Akiyama £15 @1.38 Won

2011-08-07
03:28    15680946913     2011-07-27
13:13     UFC 133 Belfort v Akiyama / Winner / Vitor Belfort
Back          1.38    15.00    Won         5.70   

New balance = £110.70

UFC live:  Hardy vs Lytle

charles olivera vs donald cerone £5 @1.83
Chris Lylte vs Dan Hardy £5 @2.04
Jim miller vs Ben Henderson £10 @1.68
Kyle Noke vs Ed Herman £10 @ 1.74

Kyle Noke @ 1.74
also
Karlos Vamola vs Ronny Markes £5 @1.41
Amir Sadollah vs Duane Ludwig £3 @ 4.2 (unmatched atm)

Not the best event for you there Razz.  Find the Live events harder to predict.  I went for a Cerrone and Lytle double.  I had a little on Volkmann but I didn't touch the rest as thought the odds were too skinny for the fighters I preferred (e.g. Vamola, Sadollah, J Miller, C Miller)... lucky as nearly all of them lost.

no not a good weekend for those picks, i greened out on the bendo fight, lost half my profit on the ludwig fight thanks to a stream on ufc.tv that was 7 minutes behind the betting, so i greened out when in real time he'd already won, the hardy fight I regret picking him over the more versatile lytle. as for kyle noke staying on the ground with ed herman after several close sub attempts by herman, made me pretty angry when he could of just stood up as his take down defence is decent and probably would of out-struck herman.
was amazed by how undisciplined vermola was, was just swinging wildly, showed very little technique and gassed because of the wild punches and grappling. not betting on him again unless he shows a marked improvement in technique
i was really impressed by cerrone and ben henderson though, 2 wec guys who a lot of people thought wouldnt be able to hang in there with the best LW's in the ufc let alone dominate them in that fashion.
placed a lot of bets in play, but I wasn't aware of how behind my stream was for a while so some of the bets changed.

Mixed Martial Arts / Hardy v Lytle : Winner     15-Aug-11 02:00     15-Aug-11 04:08    -12.50
Mixed Martial Arts / Miller v Henderson : Winner     15-Aug-11 02:00     15-Aug-11 03:32    8.92
Mixed Martial Arts / Oliveira v Cerrone : Winner     15-Aug-11 02:00     15-Aug-11 02:57    -5.00
Mixed Martial Arts / Sadollah v Ludwig : Winner     15-Aug-11 02:00     15-Aug-11 02:37    4.21
Mixed Martial Arts / UFC Live : Vemola v Markes     14-Aug-11 23:00     15-Aug-11 02:05    -5.00
Mixed Martial Arts / UFC Live : Herman v Noke     14-Aug-11 23:00     15-Aug-11 02:05    -10.00


New bank £91.33

going for schaub tonight, will post bets after