Eurovision 2010 - Outright Winner......

poland to win...eastern european sympathy vote?

Not too long to go now, before this event kicks off. We have seen some market movers from the early prices naturally and a quick update on a few of the more likely contenders, as for now.


Azerbaijan 5/2 - Spend a few sterlings on a decent video, Safura is going around Europe and singing on different shows and the whole setup from the Swedish Team behind her, means business. The best song in the competition and all I wrote about Azerbaijan previously stands. It is an extremely likely winner, since it is guaranteed high points from so many countries. Since no other country got that + factor and the fact that the competition is so weak, this could be a comfortable victory in the end.

Germany around 4/1 - This smells place 10 or worse. Not that the song is not different and not catchy, it is. But it is not a traditional song for the competition and most of those songs (Yeah Lordi was an exception) never finish high up, unless they got a big east-block of votes behind them (Ukraine song a few years ago). Can it win? Yes it can, but I think it stands way less chance than the prices indicates. Very easily a lay for me.

Israel 8/1 - If Israel had friends, this would be right up there with Azer and I would then not be surprised to see it win. A beautiful ballad but in a language that noone understands. A dark horse in it's full meaning and can pull of a high finish. But if Europe decides Israel are not for them yet again, this wont be better than 6th-8th.

Denmark 9/1 - The winner from the ESC "official fans competition" where they predict the winner each year, from their musical taste....and though their opinion should not be underestimated, they average person voting there is not the average person voting come 2 weeks. This song is written by a well-known Swedish composer and it sounds something Sweden left 5-6 years ago in this competition. It is an ok song, sure. However, it's not brutally good and the singers lack charisma, leaving the likes of the first 3 mentioned artists looking like a young Michael Jackson. Could be worth a bet for Top 4, not more I would think.

The rest should have very little chance. Norway is a bit forgotten now, I expect that to get down from 30/1 to 20/1 before the final.

Azerbaijan has been the fav all the time and it is a very likely winner indeed.

Good Luck with your bets

/Saslokk

here you will find a big analysis about betting ESC 2010

http://www.escforum.net/forum/showthread.php?p=1855725&posted=1

Saslokk does it not be a concern that Azerbajjan are the first country to sing and by the time it finishes people might have forgotten about that song ..

I can't see that Belarus one doing well to be honest. Admittedly, it really isn't bad, but the winning song's going to be something more up tempo.

Azerbaijan going 1st isn't good, I'm sure I heard that whoever went 1st has never won. Of course, tradition could be broken, but it's a long wait from 1st to last songs.

Y1DOS Each Way bit value?

Best songs ive heard are

ICELAND
ROMANIA
GREECE

Take them Top 4

Anyone got a lineup of whos next?

Belgium can gtfo.

The Belgium guy sings too high to sound like Tracy Chapman. Suspect this one could make the top 4 tho.

germany fav now without singing

AZE-performance soooo bad?!

I had a cheeky few quid e-w on Moldova at 125/1, I'd say that's probably one of the better songs thus far..

I don't understand Eurovision, how can Germany be faves yet be so much higher than Turkey and Azer on top 10 finish?

Serbia could make the top 10. It was a bit cheesy but had a touch of the goran bregovich about it which i liked. Performer likely to go down well too.

Spain to perform again? surely thats nailed on for at least top 10 now?

How come Spain get to go again? I wasnt really watching - did something go horribly wrong?

Sympathy? So bad they get a chance to.. fail.. again..

Thanks for the Moldova tip.Got 17/2 for a Top Ten finish.[;)]

How come Spain get to go again? I wasnt really watching - did something go horribly wrong?


Someone from the audience jumped on stage during their first performance.

I'd say that's got a superb chance. Quite pleased with the 125/1 e-w i got!

Not the friggin irish pipes again. I would suggest that the lady would do better wearing black rather than purple.

OMG Greece are awful. No semblance of a tune just a lot of Opa's

OPA! :D

UK even worse...lame singer...rubbish song which would not have even made the charts in the 80s.

arrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh OPA!

Hi! Does anyone of you have a link to the list of voting. Is Aserbadjan voting first if they kicked of the show or?
Anyone seen a list? Thanks in advance.. still looking for it..

turkey are shocking

GoldenRun - After Turkey it's:

Albania
Iceland
Ukraine
France
Romania
Russia
Armenia
Germany
Portugal
Israel
Denmark
Spain

Turkey very disappointing I agree. Boring euro rock. However a very safe bet to make the final 10 I would say,

Thanks ocukstinky
But have you seen the list of 'running order' of votes?
Ie a list where it is written the list/order of countries voting.
Trying to find out if the Semi final beaten countries are voting a swell - nd if so.. where they will do this.
In the middle or after the participating countries etc..!?

It's pretty random:

   1.  Romania
   2.  Ireland
   3.  Germany
   4.  Serbia
   5.  Albania
   6.  Turkey
   7.  Croatia
   8.  Poland
   9.  Bosnia and Herzegovina
  10.  Finland
  11.  Slovenia
  12.  Estonia
  13.  Russia

   

  14.  Portugal
  15.  Azerbaijan
  16.  Greece
  17.  Iceland
  18.  Denmark
  19.  France
  20.  Spain
  21.  Slovakia
  22.  Bulgaria
  23.  Ukraine
  24.  Latvia
  25.  Malta
  26.  Norway

   

  27.  Cyprus
  28.  Lithuania
  29.  Belarus
  30.  Switzerland
  31.  Belgium
  32.  United Kingdom
  33.  Netherlands
  34.  Israel
  35.  Macedonia
  36.  Moldova
  37.  Georgia
  38.  Sweden
  39.  Armenia

Yes wykhaimst
Turkey will get great points from Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Cyprus. Stone sure Top10... year after year after...

Albania - Sam Sparro not in sight for a similar sounding song to Black and Gold

Thank you 'ocukstinky'..

After their volcano stopped flights across europe and their dodgy banking system I suggest that Iceland will get very few votes from other european countries.

Singer looks like awful too.

No worries :)

Jeez, hope they've reinforced the stage ready for this bird.

I hope for her sake they dont end the whaling ban.

nice bird. too bad she sings like sht

market swings back to AZE?

yeh she looks good and not a bad song but her voice is kinda raucous. Tempted to put a bet on her making top 10 but decided against it.

wykhamist:
"After their volcano stopped flights across europe and their dodgy banking system I suggest that Iceland will get very few votes from other european countries."

I would like to put forward it is Europe with the dodgy banking system. Iceland simply gave to fingers to them. Fair play to them ...

Is that William Gallas singing for France?

french haka

The Romanian gal looks like she is trying to look like Shania Twain. Totally naff with very little chance.

Ok who wants to back Iceland for 3.5K? On the scotch anybody?

Be careful betting on Germany.  The losing semi-finalists have been voting for the past few years and a couple of years ago all just seemed to vote for those in the semi-finals (it made you wonder if they were just using their semi votes rather than doing it properly).  If that happens again, Germany won't get any points from them.

Although of course Germany will give it's 12 points to Turkey and vice-versa as always!

france from 300 to 25!

Just put up a bet backing UK to get nul points at 9.4. Dunno if I will get any takers, but those seem like great odds. I mean, who will actually vote for the UK?

Ireland usually give us a couple.

Someone else has offered 9 and I dont want to go lower than that. Agree there is a strong chance someone will give them 2 but I defy them to make more then about 10 points.

Well, Portugal aren't going to win this year either!

HAHAHA - now Germany aren't favourites any more. I guess that was the first time most people have heard their song.

I'm on Albania at 270

I've bet against Germany and Israel in the outright and had a play with the top 3/4/10.  Backed Germany in those, not so sure now as it wasn't as good as I thought it was meant to be.

Also backed Germany to give their 12 to Turkey and vice-versa.

I really liked Holland's entry but it didn't get through the semis.  Same happened last year :-(

Well the German song was pretty catchy. I dont think it will win but should make the top 10.

Denmark sounds like complete ripoff od Every Breath You Take

That's my thoughts on Germany too - really can't see them winning due to the voting system - the lines were open from the start and she was one of the last to sing.  If people watched the semis then they may have voted long before she was on.

Spain might get a few sympathy votes now.

simply red + leo sayer = spain singer

Managed to back the UK to get nul points at 14. Now laying at 6 and hoping to get a taker!

I was going to make a Leo Sayer comment ;-)

So how come Azerbaijan are favourites?  It wasn't that good, but then again what else was there?

Come on Azerbaijan, if she wins i'll marry her so she can get access to the UK without having to smuggle herself in through Calais.

I think Germany has chance still, the song was already charting pretty well in central europe. Though on downside her performance was pretty nervy

Denmark or Iceland all the way

My lay of Israel at 11.5 is looking good, already out to 50!

By the way anyone know when actual results start to roll in?

I'm out of my lay of Germany for now - if Azerbaijan vote first then they won't be winning from the start ;-)

Germany and France for me - UK to score less than 10

oh the excitement!

France? r u having a laugh?

Anyone but France, though I would love to vote for these guys singing now

Does anyone actually know who votes first, is it Azerbaijan or do they go through the losing semi-finalists first this year?

How in the hell do all these Europeans know the dance moves? We must join the Euro NOW!

Its actually quite impressive, fair play to them

Backed France at 80 s now trading mid 30s - so not alone on that one!

4 points for the UK from Ireland ;-)

Why suspend? GSM?

Never underestimate power of German TV, which half europe watches, who are playing their song now stop

sorry meant non-stop

Luckily I was able to lay the UK getting nul at 6, having backed at 14. So nothing gained but nothing lost either.

Looking good for the Germans

It is, glad the odds shifted up enough to get out before the voting started.

but only 4 points from the last 3 votes for the germans

some hope denmark yet

oh god that was suicide voting from denmark!!

oh god that was suicide voting from denmark!!

Oh the French with their obsession with their silly language

d'accord

Nice to be able to lahy Denmark @1.67 after just 2 of 39 votes being in.

yup - that was good :)

Am actually in Germany at the moment, and can hear them all out in street going nuts!

I need a late charge from Azerbaijan - need them top 4!

Thanks Georgia ....

What a mess! Don't have a clue how I've done as there was a lot of laying of Azerbaijan late on!  I won on a few markets but don't want to look at the top 3 and top 4[:(]

Pretty good profit on germany. Bonus few quid after Romania snuck into top three. Last min bet on silly two man piano turned out good.

i feel your pain basil333 what the fook happend there, i was on at 4/1 blinked and they wer 11/10, got fcuk all!

As I said before dont underestimate the power of German TV/radio pushing their girl.

That said they will be unsufferably smug now, acting as if they won the world cup.

Just tried to work it out and it isn't as bad as I at first thought - not good though!

Still waiting for BF to settle the account, but looks like I will be just very slightly down on the evening. My main bets were for Germany Turkey and Belgium to make final 4, so I was dismayed to see Belgium fall away at the end. Also had a few small bets on the top 10 which did not come off and took Turkey at 12 to 1 to win for 2 quid so lost out there.

UK got what they deserved. I do think Belgium actually had the best song, but I guess they could not get enough support.

I was laying the field on the top 3 and top 4 as there was a huge margin - kept Germany, Azerbaijan and Armenia low and not too much against Turkey either.  Laid a lot against Azerbaijan during the voting - wasn't sure how that last vote would go (geography not good enough) or could have made a profit.  Fortunately the margin was huge so the loss isn't as much as I thought.  Backed 4 in the top 10 (Germany, Armenia, Denmark, Greece) - all came in so that has helped, and made a little on Germany in the outright.  I reckon I'm down just over £100.00 over all but it could have been a whole lot worse!

I don't understand I was about €47 green on Germany when the market closed, but seems like BF gave me a -€24, anyone experienced something similar?