orioles

I like this bet.

Winston may be in for a really terrible Sunday: Lewis Hamilton terrible. The Broncos will key on pressuring Winston and they'll get there all day. Sims might profit from a little over zealous pass rushing, but it shouldn't be enough.

Siemian has been quietly efficient and Tampa Bay are awful deep, so as long as he doesn't do anything stupid the Broncos can put the hurt on the Bucs.

Give the points and blow the kids' college fund.

Pick: Broncos -3.5 @ 2

West coast team heads East ... a spot that bettors traditionally love, but capping Flacco is a thankless task; it's mostly what side of the bed he fell out of that morning.

Derek Carr has a strong arm and a talented receiving corps, so look for some deep throws. With the visitors' run game likely to struggle against a tough interior, the key for the Ravens is to get pressure on Carr and the injuries along the Raiders' O line may give Baltimore the edge they need.

Flacco so far has more or less got it done, but the Raiders are giving up a ton of yardage, so the Baltimore triggerman should have gone to sleep with a song in his heart, let's hope he fell out of the happy side this morning.

Pick: Ravens -3.5 @ 1.95

The proud NFL tradition of sending reluctant (don't believe the hype, they HATE coming here) teams that stink over to London continues with these two delights.

The Jags may have someone else on the sidelines next time out, never a good spot, but the Colts have to get their game going. They're lucky Bortles is all potential at the moment against an Indianapolis secondary that looks mighty vulnerable, even with key players coming back from injury. Similarly, the Jags' run game is oddly toothless behind an O line that's struggling to open lanes.

Andrew Luck needs to stop turning the ball over, but he should be able to get points on the board and Frank Gore will trundle to his usual 70yd game as a useful change up.

Their should be points in foggy old London ...

Enjoy.

Pick: Colts -2.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 48.5 @ 1.95

The Bengals should win here (I can see Jeremy Hill having a big game against a poor Miami run D) but the game feels a little trappy. Cincinnati are much the better team, but have struggled to find any rhythm, so I'd stay away.

If you must, buy the half point.

Pick: Dolphins -7 @ 1.91

9-10, -1.38

Two excellent offenses (Brees is happiest at home) and middling to poor defenses promise a bucket load of points.

This could go down to the wire with punch and counter-punch, so I'll take the points, but make the Over my primary bet.

Pick: Falcons +2.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.95

I couldn't successfully tip a barrow load of it onto the turf. If you're Laying these picks, you might want to send me a few quid for warm clothes for the winter.

The Bears are a poor team who are now beset by injuries and have no chance against the Cowboys, who should be able to pressure Brian Hoyer (a great Geordie name for a QB that is utterly lost on Americans - trust me, I spent an hour yesterday explaining the joke) all night.

Look for Chicago to win going away.

Pick: Cowboys -6.5 @ 1.95

Well, this is where the rubber meets the road for the Wentz show. The Steelers are my pick to go all the way and while the Eagles have a ton of momentum behind a rookie who's playing out of his mind, they've beaten the Bears and the Browns to go 2-0 and Pittsburgh won't be as generous.

Pick: Steelers -3.5 @ 2

If I ever pick against Belichick again ...

Washington will step it up for this game, but there are already unhappy rumblings in the locker room and the Giants' defense is aggressive and it's likely that, confident their secondary can handle the Redskins' receivers, they'll give Cousins a rough time. DeSean Jackson is injured, limiting Cousins' options. The Giants aren't giving much up to running backs so it might get messy.

Eli Manning has Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shepard to aim at, and while the Redskins have a decent secondary, that's an awful lot of talent to cover, especially as the change up with the run game is an option against a Washington run D ranking 27th ypg.

A confident pick in the NFC East is a bit like taking on Belichick, but this is my first strong pick of the year.

Pick: Giants -3 @ 1.95

6-8, -2.23

If anyone can find a way to slot in a #3 QB, it's Belichick, but this is a big ask.

Houston are tough on opposing trigger men and a young QB off a short week is bound to struggle. Blount will see a ton of the ball with James White and D.J. Foster changing it up. Otherwise it'll be quick strikes to Edelman and Amendola and the Gronk is talking up his chances too - we'll see. Anyway, that's a brutal front seven and a decent secondary to challenge with Brissett under center.

Osweiler has been workmanlike (the picks need work) and Miller is morphing into a workhorse back, but it's out wide that the Texans can find some joy: DeAndre Hopkins and outstanding rookie Will Fuller should provide Houston with enough to get past a hobbled home team. I like the Under, too.

Pick: Texans @ 2
Pick: Under 40.5 @ 1.95

The difference tonight may well be on the sidelines. Vic Fangio can win it for the Bears.

Pick: Bears -3 @ 1.95
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2.75