orioles

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Those pesky streaks are back; Texas are on a 3 win run, Detroit have lost 3 in a row. Conventionally, this is the point to start betting the streaks.

Texas are also tearing it up, and the lefty Wilson should be too much for the Tigers' struggling batters, who haven't hit lefties at all well so far.

I'm tempted to just take the 1.77 SU Hills are offering, but the Rangers can knock Brad Penny about, so I'll bet the runline.

Pick: Texas -1.5 @ 2.25

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

8-10 (-1.84 pts)

Colorado Rockies @ NY Mets

These two pitchers have been ugly this season and the Evens on offer at Boyles looks too attractive, even in a pitcher-friendly park like Citi Field.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.0

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

As an Orioles fan, it's nice to label this matchup the battle for last place! The Rays flat out stink, and Hellickson has struggled (although I like his stuff) so I'd be surprised to see them emerge from the post-Manny debacle with a win at Fenway. That said, Daisuke Matsuzaka hardly inspires confidence and the Bosox are horribly inconsistent at the plate. The price for the Red Sox straight up is too skinny, which leaves totals or the runline.

I don't trust these pitchers, and that's enough to go Over.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.8 (PP)

Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres

Latos is coming off the DL, but he has the stuff to beat Volquez and the Reds who haven't won in San Diego for six years. The price is right enough.

Pick: Padres @ 1.87

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

6-9 (-2.64 pts)

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

From the trends section : The Tigers are 8-0 since May 13, 2010 when Justin Verlander starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches and Detroit won in his previous start.

Well, the Rangers are on a tear, but Verlander fares well against them. Alexi Ogando was money out of the pen, and should do ok today after a strong start, making everything point to Unders. The weather (18 degrees/WSW at 17mph) isn't too discouraging in a park without a high hitting index, so I'll take the 1.87 on offer generally.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.87

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

5-9 (-3.51 pts)

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Beckett has struggled against the Yankees, posting a 10.04 ERA in five starts against New York last year. In contrast, Sabathia is 4-0, with a 2.72 ERA in his last seven games against Boston, who are hitting a miserable .187 against lefties. Add in New York's deep bullpen, which got it done just as I'd hoped yesterday, and the 1.91 available on the Bronx Bombers is just too much to resist.

Pick: Yankees @ 1.91

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

5-8 (-2.51 pts)

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Well, Lackey was poor last night, but Hughes outdid him! The guy looks injured and may be pulled (not least because he's on several of my fantasy teams, which seems to be a curse) but it allowed the Bosox to get off the mark - had Hughes not imploded though, the Yanks would've taken it and that's why I'll take the 2.35 on offer today on New York.

I'm not sure Boston are out of the woods yet, and Buchholz has struggled with the pinstripes historically. Nova is a solid pitcher - Joe Girardi wants 5 maybe 6 innings of solid work and then the deep Yankees' pen can step in and close out the game. It's a rigid gameplan, but with Nova coming off a good spring and a decent debut, I can't resist the price.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 2.35

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

4-8 (-3.86 pts)

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

0-6? BOSOX? Amazing! A proud record that reaches back to when my daddy was climbing into a Spitfire and doing victory rolls over Biggin Hill.

Streaks are powerful in baseball and worth betting from 3 either way out (3 losses/3 wins; just bet the streak) so I'm not going to stay away from the 2.25 on offer at B365.

Neither pitcher started well this season, but I like Hughes and if he has made progress this week after being plagued by a loss of velocity, he can get it done today against a Red Sox team hitting .181. Lackey is a little too prone to falling in a heap and getting shelled for my liking, so Overs may be an option, but with the line at 10 and better the Evens on offer for New York, I'll take the bombers (geddit?)

Pick: Yankees @ 2.25

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

4-7 (-2.86 pts)

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

I like these pitchers (I know 'The Doc' is a no-brainer, but I rate Niese too) and with a gentle breeze blowing in from centre, and these two putting up a 2.56 and 2.14 ERA respectively historically in this matchup, Unders has a tempting look to it. However, both these teams have put up runs recently.

I think the Phils will take this behind Halladay, but I can't take the price SU, so I'm going to rely on him to really shut down the Mets and take the runline. The Phils have hit lefties nicely this year and their bats are hot; it's time for Halladay to open his account.

Pick: Phils -1.5 @ 2.1

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

3-7 (-4.06pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

The ballpark was relatively pitcher friendly last year (although that's a reversing trend) and these two pitchers are strong - that would seem to point to Unders.

However, the Rays are horrible at the moment and, with nearly no run production and Haren on the mound (1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Rays last season) I can't oppose the losing streak at the price.

Pick: Angels @ 1.96

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

2-7 (-5.02pts)

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Well, the Phils are keeping their end of the deal up at the moment; ace rotation and power hitting racking up the wins. The Mets aren't doing too badly either, winning their last two, but they should be over-matched tonight.

Hamels hasn't had much success against the Mets, but the numbers aren't terrifying;Young on the other hand, has an ERA well north of 6 at Citizens Bank Park and may struggle tonight.

Try this trend: The Phillies are 13-0 since July 23, 2010 at home after a win in which they left 18+ men on base.

Say what?

I like the Phils here enough to bet the runline.

Pick: Phils -1.5 @ 2.2

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

2-6 (-4.02pts)

Minnesota Twins @ NY Yankees

The ball has been getting out of Yankee Stadium with indecent haste these days and the weather looks favourable enough to suggest that these two pitchers - neither of whom look like shut down material - will give up runs tonight. The Yankees should take the game, but I'm not taking the price. The totals are high, but I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 10 @ 1.91

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

2-5 (-3.02pts)