orioles

San Francisco Giants @ Oakland As

Neither of these pitchers inspires: Cahill was aces to start but has completely fallen apart of late and after starting 6-0, the Athletics have lost the last seven games in which Cahill has started. During that spell, he has issued nearly 6 free passes every 9 innings and that will always be catastrophic - he also occasionally decides to hurl it into Row Z, never a good sign.

He may get some help from some of the coldest bats in the majors, as the Giants seem almost allergic to getting players home and are an awful 0 for 15 with runners in scoring position in this series.

However, Oakland are hardly hitting the hide off the ball either and if there is value here, it's with Matt Cain and the Giants, who just need to wake up at the plate (sleeping Giants, geddit? Genius!) Cain has been solid L3 and should be least in danger of imploding.

Pick: Giants @ 1.95

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Indians

Both of these pitchers have been strong recently: Karstens' figures L3 are stellar, and Masterson has been unfortunate to have got almost no run support. They are collectively 1-5 O/U L6.

Not always a happy bet at Progressive Field, but I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.91 (WH)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

47-55 (-6.41pts)

Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves

Harrison is a pitcher I like and has decent numbers L3. He's going back to the team that drafted him in the 3rd round in 2003, then traded him in the Teixeira deal. The Rangers have been struggling, but snapped the streak last night at Turner Field and look the value to win again against Lowe, who got roughed up in his last game and doesn't have a good inter-league record.

Pick: Rangers @ 2.01

Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

The Nats are rolling; their bats are hot, and with Zimmerman pitching well and Matusz struggling, they should have little difficulty with my boys.

Pick: Nats @ 1.7

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

45-56 (-9.12pts)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox

Marcum has good numbers generally, and against the batters he goes against tonight the collective numbers are encouraging: .194/.274/.364. Lackey has only faced four of tonight's Brew crew, so the sample size is a little small, but what there is isn't too startling.

The weather looks changeable and although I'm tempted to back Marcum, I'll go Under because the Red Sox are hot, Milwaukee is weak on the road and I'm beset with doubt!

Pick: Under 9.5 @ 1.83

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

45-55 (-8.12pts)

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

Garcia is pitching well generally and has been strong against the Cubs, his day/night splits are encouraging too. Davis has struggled against the Yankees, and his numbers are frankly poor.

With the Yankees a heavy road favourite, this is an instance where a stronger case can be made for betting the run line - particularly given the offense New York are producing.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.00 (VC)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

45-54 (-7.12pts)

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

Dickey has beaten Atlanta already and has good numbers L3; added to the sneaking suspicion that the Mets may have discovered they can be the sum of their parts. Minor has worrying numbers, putting too many on (.407 OBP at home) and may suffer from the cooling Braves' bats.

The losing streak plays again here, making the Mets the play.

Pick: Mets @ 2.21

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

45-53 (-6.12pts)

Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

I have no idea which god I've offended, but I've got more chance of taking flight than catching a break.

It's a three game losing streak for the Rangers (see below for betting streaks) and Holland has not done well on the road against the Yankees. 1.84 is as short as I'd like to go on Nova, but I suspect he just has to keep the bombers in it and he'll get enough run support to take the game.

Pick: Yankees @ 1.84

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-53 (-6.96pts)

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Nobody hits worse than the Padres - dead last in the MLB in nearly every batting stat and a sparkling .240 L10. When Chase Headley went deep on June 9, it was the first homer this season by Padres No. 3 hitters, who are batting a combined .205/.301/.269. Anthony Rizzo, supposed to bolster the bats (and ensure my inevitable march to victory in the fantasy league) has done f all.

Colorado can hit, but Mat Latos has been strong recently (1.35/3.18 WHIP/ERA L3) and his daytime splits are even better (.123/.190) which suggests he can exert some control.

It's a risk at the most hitter friendly park in the majors, but I'll go Under; so smash into Overs.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-52 (-5.96pts)

Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

My family are getting worried about me sobbing into my cornflakes every morning as I check the results, so this had better go Under. Please God!

Hamels 0.74/1.17 WHIP/ERA L3, Volstad a worry, but Phils 18th in hitting ranks and hitting just .224 against righties L10. The weather supposed to be poor too - but then it was supposed to be last night and the forecast turned out to be cobblers.

There's not much value elsewhere, so Unders is the call.

Under 8 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-51 (-4.96pts)