orioles

Tampa @ Detroit

I will bore you all with the theory of betting streaks in baseball, but not today, save to say that the streak becomes 'live' at 3 wins/losses. Both these teams have started 3-0, which makes the pick difficult using just that rule.

However, I'll take the Tigers.

Moore goes for the Rays and those of you who've read this stuff last year, know that I favour firebrand rookie lefties (I know he came up last season, but it was late) but it'll be a tough assignment, against a pretty fearsome lineup that is red hot. Moore has had some injury problems that have affected his spring and he seems to be a slow starter, so the 1.92 Detroit looks value.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 25/27; 1.92; -108

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 3-7 (-3.07)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Milwaukee @ Chicago Cubs

I don't like the look of the Cubs; a bunch of old men (minus Castro) some of whom weren't much good when they came up.

Volstad has actually done ok against Milwaukee, but he's not a pitcher I trust to dominate; he gives up too many hits and right handers have battered him and there's some right handed power on show tonight for Milwaukee.

Marcum is in the last year of his contract and there's a feeling that if the Brewers don't start well, they'll begin to offload payroll, so I'd like to think these guys will be keen to impress. As it is, Marcum has the stuff and is 2-0 in two starts against the Cubbies with an ERA of just 1.93.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

Miami @ Philadelphia

Hamels was strong last season and looked solid in Spring training, so I'd be reluctant to oppose him. However, I'm equally reluctant to back him at 1.67.

Anibal Sanchez is 1-6 with a 6.58 ERA at Citizen Bank Park, but the Phillies haven't looked like lighting anybody up so far, so I'll take a small interest in Unders and hope Sanchez shows some form and Philadelphia don't suddenly wake up for their home opener.

Pick: Under 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 2-6 (-2.94)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Chisox @ Texas

The Rangers look as though they're seeing the ball nicely at the plate and they can reach Gavin Floyd tonight. Floyd has a 4.73 lifetime ERA against Texas and they have beaten him up in the past.

Harrison was a revelation last year and has a 3.54 ERA in five career starts against the White Sox.

Those of you who follow me, know that I'm very reluctant to bet the runline (and I've already made a dumb bet like that this season) but it looks value here.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 6/5; 2.2; 120

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 2-6 (-4.14)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay

I like the Overs here. The Rays have started nicely, and the Yanks' Phil Hughes had a difficult year last year and will be searching for form early in this term.

Similarly, Hellickson had a poor Spring training and will need to be better against a team that has generally fared well against him.

The weather looks set fair and there should be runs from two capable offenses.

Pick: Over 8 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 2-5 (-3.14)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

St Louis @ Milwaukee

Wainwright, 7-4 with a 2.06 ERA in 21 games against the Brewers, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery that saw him miss all of last season.

Zack Greinke was strong against the Cards in 2011, until the post-season, when he got badly roughed up. He is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA lifetime versus the Redbirds.

St Louis have had the sign over Milwaukee recently and have started well and I can't resist odds against on an arm like Wainwright's, even if it is surgically repaired.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals: 28/25; 2.12; 112

Atlanta @ New York Mets

Meet The Mets,
Meet The Mets,
Step right up and greet the Mets!
Bring your kiddies,
bring your wife;
Guaranteed to have the time of your life

The poor old Mets - I've always had a soft spot for them and saw them occasionally at the old Shea when I was in town, but things are tough after Madoff met Wilpon. There's no money, players have left, Major League Baseball is keeping an eye on the situation and there's not much fun to be had at Citi Field these days.

The Metropolitans saw off the 'offense-lite' Braves in the first game of this series, but the 1.9+ on offer for Atlanta looks too attractive to swerve here. Dickey is up for the home team and like all knuckleballers, it's feast or famine. If the wind is behind and the weather fair, he can be tough, but Dickey is a notoriously slow starter and could be vulnerable this afternoon.

Jair Jurrjens has good stuff and carries a 2.94 ERA in 13 starts against New York into this game. The Braves' hitters may find a little power and so Atlanta look the bet.

I'd be tempted by the Unders, too, but the Mets have radically altered the fences in the off-season to make Citi Field more hitter friendly, so I'll leave it and see how the 'new' park plays.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 2-3 (-1.14)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

San Francisco @ Arizona

This should be a cracking game. There's history, a little bad blood, two fine pitchers and an early opportunity to put a marker down for the NL West title.

Lincecum doesn't enjoy facing the Diamondbacks and although this will be hard fought, I like the 1.95 on offer for the home team and even at Chase Field, I'll also go Under.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @ 20/21; 1.95; -105
Pick: Under 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 1-2 (-1.09)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Chisox @ Texas

If not actually rebuilding, the White Sox are trying to reinvigorate and regather their side under new rookie manager Robin Ventura. After losing Mark Buehrle, Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin and seeing their established players under-perform last season, it may be a significant task.

I like Texas for the AL West, they will put up big numbers on offense (and have added bats including Nelson Cruz) and made a nice move signing Yu Darvish.

Today, Texas are best price 1.56 and with this pitching matchup, I can't have them. Colby Lewis has had success against the White Sox, but sports a 5.93 ERA against them lifetime. John Danks has just signed a big contract and will be looking to show he's worth $65 million over five-years.

Danks has a 3.81 ERA against Texas, and although it's a tough ask, Chicago look a live chance at 2.75 with him on the mound.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 7/4; 2.75; 175

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 1-1 (-0.09)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Boston @ Detroit

Two teams that are best watched at such an early stage.

Detroit have made a clear statement of intent bringing Fielder in and expectations are sky high. With Cy Young winner Verlander on the mound this afternoon, they look good for the win against a Bosox team that must be wondering what this season has in store after a horrible September and losing their new closer just before the season opener.

Backing below 1.75 is not recommended, but if you must, the Tigers look the bet. Although Lester was poor at the back end of last season, it was a symptom of the wider malaise at Fenway, so I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 0-1 (-1)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)