orioles

Halos @ Cleveland

The Angels are stinking it up at the moment; it won't last, but they're really struggling to get going and are on an ugly four game losing streak. They need their offense (particularly Pujols) to click and their bullpen to produce.

The batting averages and runs scored are a case in point; the Angels are batting 13 points better than the Tribe, but have scored ten runs less. Similarly, the Angels' bullpen has a 1.38/5.57 WHIP/ERA line compared to Cleveland's 1.16/2.42 L3.

Jered Weaver is 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA in six starts at Progressive Field and has carried his excellent form from last year over into this season. Justin Masterson has been poor (1.62/6.65) but seems solid at home (0.92/2.77) and as I can't have the Angels at the price, I'll bet the home dog on the basis that losing teams find ways to lose.

This looks a solid Unders bet too, but again, the price is just too short, so I'll look for a little value and go Over.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 141/100; 2.41; 141
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

Toronto @ Baltimore

One team that seems to be turning in its usual early season good form (only to tank halfway through May) and the other that isn't living up to its pre-season sleeper hype.

What is particularly striking in tonight's game are the horrible numbers of the two pitchers; Drew Hutchison is 1-0, but has a 2.06/8.44 WHIP/ERA and Brian Matusz is 0-3, 2.25/7.98. That makes picking the winner awkward, because one or both of these guys could implode spectacularly against two decent enough offenses.

On balance, the value here is probably to go Over, with the pitcher, park and umpire numbers seemingly in our favour.

Pick: Over 9 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 15-19 (-3.54)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

Both of these pitchers have got good stuff, although Hellickson has started the season poorly (too many hits and too many walks) and Wilson got knocked about by the Rays last time he faced them in Game 1 of the ALDS. Wilson's record otherwise against Tampa Bay (and at Tropicana field) is outstanding and if he gets any run support, he'll be difficult to beat tonight.

The problem is, the Angels have been struggling to get runs home, particularly with Pujols failing to launch with his new club.

I like the streak here for the Rays and the home dog looks value.

Given Wilson's record at the Trop (1.23 ERA/.141 opposition average) and the Angels' scoring woes, I'll also take the Unders and hope Hellickson keeps it in the park.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ Evens; 2.00; 100
Pick: Under 7.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

Houston @ Milwaukee

The Brewers are heavily favoured here and they should be; J.A. Happ has an 0-2/8.78 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee, who are hitting a combined .345 against him. Shaun Marcum, on the other hand, is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA L3 and Houston are hitting him at just a .170 clip.

The Astros are 2-8 L10 and Happ looks as though he could give up some runs this afternoon against a Brewers' lineup that seems to be heating up, so I'll take the Over and Milwaukee on the run line.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ 59/50; 2.18; 118
Pick: Over 8 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 12-18 (-5.45)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Cleveland @ Oakland

Not a thrilling prospect, this one. Cleveland are on a little streak however, and the A's are stone cold at the plate, so I'll favour the marginal road dog.

Masterson has been rocked by the A's in the past and isn't pitching well. Ross doesn't inspire much either (although he had a nice outing last time out) but it's not really a game to get heavily involved.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 103/100; 2.03; 103

Texas @ Detroit

After a touch of ill-fortune, I'm bloody but unbowed and it's worth stressing that betting on baseball is a war of attrition.

In this one, I'm going with Detroit. Colby Lewis has struggled against the Tigers (he's 2-2 with a 7.48 ERA career against them and 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA at Comerica Park) and although he's a strong pitcher, there are always some teams/parks that pitchers just don't like.

The other factor is Drew Smyly. I've spoken before of my interest in young lefties up against lineups for the first time and that's the case here. There's no doubt Smyly has the stuff, although with this Rangers lineup, it'll be some test.

Something to note - major league hitters are by definition highly adaptable (there's a lot of different stuff coming in from 60 yards away) and if you're sitting pretty on Smyly, think about laying some back when he goes through the order for a second time.

I also like the Under here.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 121/100; 2.21; 121
Pick: Under 9.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 11-16 (-4.36)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

San Francisco at New York Mets

I like the Giants here; the Mets are returning to form and San Francisco are beginning to find their feet.

Ryan Vogelsong has a steady enough record against the Mets - although the sample size is small. He goes up against Mike Pelfrey who enjoys taking on the Giants and has started well this season, but his 0-5 record and 4.97 ERA in his last nine home starts hardly inspires.

San Francisco are on a qualifying winning streak, and New York a similar losing streak.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 51/50; 2.02; 102

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 11-15 (-3.36)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Bombers @ Boston

This looks like there'll be runs; both these pitchers have terrifying lines with ERAs well north of six historically in this fixture, and 4.15 and 9.82 on the season. The wind looks as though it's out to left, and it makes me want to take on a bet I'd never dream of touching usually.

Pick: Over 10.5 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 11-14 (-2.36)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Texas @ Detroit

A tough call, with two streaking teams fielding pitchers who look vulnerable. The difference here may  be the number of hits Yu Darvish is giving up; 17 hits in 11 innings of work and a WHIP of 2.21 are dangerous numbers for a pitcher going up against an offense as capable as Detroit's. If he hangs one against Prince Fielder, look out, the big man likes taking Texas pitching deep.

Wilk is filling in for Doug Fister, but has been steady enough to suggest he can keep his team in this clash of the AL pacesetters.

I'll take some of the 2.11 on offer for the Tigers SU, but that's about as short as I'd like to go.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 111/100; 2.11; 111

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 11-13 (-1.36)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Cincinnati @ St Louis

The Cards are swinging a hot stick and Bronson Arroyo can give up runs. Equally, Adam Wainwright is struggling to find his feet after Tommy John surgery. So, despite the Reds' ice cold form at the plate and my instinct to bet the under, I'll go Over for a little value.

Pick: Over 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 10-13 (-2.36)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)