orioles

Miami @ San Francisco

Both of these pitchers have been strong in this matchup in the past; Anibal Sanchez has gone 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA - the Marlins have won six straight at AT&T Park. Whereas Ryan Vogelsong has a 1-2 record with a 2.16 ERA against the Marlins.

With the loss of Sandoval, the Giants are missing some punch at the plate and Sanchez should be able to dominate a lineup hitting a collective .253 against him. Vogelsong has a 1.11/2.14 WHIP/ERA at home and I like this to go Under too.

Pick: Miami Marlins @ 9/10; 1.88; -113
Pick: Under 6.5 @ Evens; 2.0; 100

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 22-23 (-0.32)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Philadelphia @ Atlanta

These two offenses beat the hell out of each other yesterday and there's a theory that you should bet the Under after a game like that, but today's pitchers have numbers that suggest Over is the value.

Joe Blanton is 1.53/4.42 WHIP/ERA L3 and Randall Delgado is an eye-watering 1.87/7.20. The home and road splits aren't any better, at 1.89/6.17 and 2.17/6.52 respectively.

So, I'll hope the bats haven't used up all their energy and go Over. Make sure you check the weather before betting - it looks changeable.

Pick: Over 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 22-22 (+0.68)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Mets @ Houston

Chris Schwinden (0-0, 11.25) does not inspire; he's 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA in five major league starts and is 2.00/11.25 WHIP/ERA on the season. Wandy Rodriguez on the other hand, is 0.95/1.35 WHIP/ERA L3 and has gone 2-0 with a 1.73 ERA in four games against the Mets at Minute Maid Park.

The Mets look as though they're heading in the wrong direction and so reluctantly, I'll try and eke out some value on the runline.

Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 @ 29/20; 2.45; 145

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 21-22 (-0.77)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Arizona @ Washington

A difficult call; Zimmerman is aces and will make the Diamondbacks work for their runs, but the Nats are swinging like a rusty gate. Washington are hitting .176 L5 and are on a four game losing streak that makes them look vulnerable.

This will be a real test of the power of the (losing) streak, but it looks like the play here.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @ 13/10; 2.28; 128

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 20-22 (-2.05)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Texas @ Toronto

Going Under at the Rogers Centre is never a comfortable call, but Yu Darvish and Kyle Drabek have been strong L3 - 0.89/1.43 WHIP/ERA Darvish, 1.34/2.41 Drabek.

I'll look for Darvish to shut down the home team and Drabek to get a break against a slightly nicked up Texas offense to take this Under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 1.83

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 19-22 (-2.88)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Arizona @ Miami

Sorry about mislabelling the late game last night!

This game is a straightforward pick as it features a young, talented lefty first time up against a lineup that is hitting just .146 L10 against left handed pitching: Corbin's the value.

The weather is terrible in Miami, with the wind in (and Buehrle has good stuff) so I'll also go Under.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8/5; 2.6; 160
Pick: Under 7.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 18-21 (-3.48)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

San Francisco @ San Diego

Madison Bumgarner has run into form and Clayton Richard enjoys pitching against the Giants.

Go under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Detroit @ Yanks

Another two capable pitchers who've been slow out of the blocks this season. CC Sabathia is carrying a 1.24/5.27 WHIP/ERA and Max Scherzer an even worse 1.83/8.24 going into this game.

That said, Scherzer has a 4-0 record against the Yankees with an ERA of 2.16 and Sabathia counters with a 2-0/1.80 ERA record at Yankee Stadium against the Tigers. That might suggest an Unders bet, but with the wind out to centre, even with such a high line, I'm not viewing the 1.84 as too good to resist.

Detroit's bullpen has been awful and Sherzer hasn't been going deep into games, so I'm going to rely on CC's home record and the Yankees' hotter bats to lay the runline.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 16-21 (-5.44)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Chicago @ Philadelphia

With neither team pulling up trees, I certainly can't have the Phillies at 1.6+, and the Cubs aren't filling me with joy either.

Both of these pitchers reflect their team's early problems and the stats show that they're putting too many people on with a WHIP of 2.20/1.32 for Randy Wells and Joe Blanton. While, fairly obviously, these offenses aren't rolling, the Phillies are hitting .299 L5 (.304 vs Wells) and the Cubs are hitting .309 lifetime against Blanton.

Neither bullpen has done well L3 and with a breeze out to centre forecast at Citizens Bank Park, Overs looks the value.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

As the Royals' game is postponed, I thought I'd reproduce a thrilling post of some stuff I've put together on betting baseball games. Enjoy!

Quick Checklist

Look at pitcher
Look at pitcher vs. line-up
Look at pitcher vs. team
Consider the park
Respect streaks at 3+ (particularly losing streaks, bad teams will find a way to lose)
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
Try not to lay runs
Look at the pitcher again

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Pitching always dominates hitting.
More often than not a good pitcher will have its way with a team before a hitter lights up a good pitcher.

Study both starting pitchers recent starts. Remember, starting pitcher is only as good as his last 2-3 starts.

Look at runs scored and runs against over a pitcher's previous 10 games as a gauge instead of won-loss record.

Learn about WHIP; it's one of the most important handicapping stats in baseball.

Check Sagarin pitcher ratings based on predicted ERA, rather than actual ERA

Look at the guys who are lesser known and have made a few good starts, because they won't be valued like an elite pitcher yet.

An automatic play is a left-handed pitcher making his debut or going through the league the first or second time.

Go against favourites who have a pitcher coming off the disabled list.

Check how the pitchers have done over the course of their career on the field their playing on. Players often perform well at certain parks for no apparent reason.

Similarly, check to see how a pitcher has done over the course of career vs. the current opponent.

Check the past couple of day's box scores to see how much the manager has worked the bullpen. A manager often has no plan to use certain pitchers in the game, because they've thrown too many innings in the past couple games.

It’s not enough to know that a team has a good bullpen.
You need to know how that bullpen has been used for the previous three nights.
Will the closer pitch?
Did he go two innings the game before?
Has the middle reliever been getting shelled?
How does he do against the lineup he's facing?

You need to drill down and check how a middle reliever does against a guy who may have been on a different team last year.

Always shop for the best odds.

Avoid betting on your favourite team. Your opinion is a biased one and your judgement is skewed.

Avoid accas.

Always check injury reports before placing bets.

Check weather reports. Bad weather and/or winds may make for an easy under or over play.

Watch lots of games.  Also, try to watch or listen to pre-game reports.

Study and handicap the games without betting them. It will raise your winning percentage.

Always consider and look for underdogs first.

Keep track of your records. Track and monitor how your sides, totals, runline and accas do. Break them down even further to see if favourites or underdogs are treating you good/bad.

Consider learning to bet on totals; they are much easier to beat.

Unders are easy money with good pitchers on the mound.

Most people at first glance will see a low number like 7 and automatically jump on the OVER because that number is so low.  In reality, it should be the exact opposite.