orioles

Mets @ Miami

Johan Santana has owned the Marlins over his career (6-1/1.46 ERA) and this Miami lineup is hitting a collective .197 against him lifetime.

Santana is 1.02/1.83 WHIP/ERA L3 and with the Mets hitting lefties at .282 L10 (contrast the Marlins hitting .210 vs lefties L10) and on a 5 game wining streak, odds against looks too much value to turn down.

For you in-running fans, the Marlins' bullpen (1.84/4.43 WHIP/ERA L3) is still rocking, making them vulnerable in the late innings - something to bear in mind if Buehrle doesn't go deep into the game.

Pick: New York Mets @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 29-27 (+2.83)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Tampa Bay @ Damned Yankees

This is a straightforward pick; David Price's form lifetime against the Yankees, and his numbers on the season, make the 'price' too attractive.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 5/4; 2.25; 125

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 29-26 (+3.83)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Tampa Bay @ Bronx Bombers

Play streaks, particularly losing streaks, because losing teams find ways to blow games.

That's all well and good, but I'm not backing David Phelps at 1.7+. Jeff Niemann, is solid at Yankee Stadium and the Rays look value, despite the streak.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 5/4; 2.25; 125

Colorado @ San Diego

Not a couple of teams to back with any confidence. The Padres are hitting lefties at a .214 clip and the Rockies are hitting just .119 against right handed pitching L5.

The home team are generally struggling to get runs home and that may help Christian Friedrich to keep it in the park. The Rockies have a miserable run total on the road in general this term and at Petco in particular recently.

I'll go Under.

Under 7 @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 28-25 (+3.58)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Mets @ Philadelphia

When I see a Totals line at 6.5, I go Under ... usually. However, although Halladay is a bona fide ace and Niese has good stuff, their numbers on the season are poor.

The line is a combination of factors; these two have outstanding records against tonight's opposition. Halladay is 7-0 with a 1.68 ERA against the Mets since joining the Phillies in 2010. Niese has won three of his last four starts against the Phillies with a 3.38 ERA, allowing one or no earned runs in each of the victories.

Add in 67 degrees, overcast and stormy and the line has been forced down.

I'm going to give more weight to 1.31/5.62 WHIP/ERA and 1.50/6.05 Niese/Halladay L3 and go Over.

Pick: Over 6.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 27-25 (+2.58)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Eeeevil Empire @ Kansas

The numbers on these two pitchers are eye-watering; Phil Hughes has a 1.32/6.59 WHIP/ERA L3 and Luke Hochevar 1.70/7.04. Their home/away splits are actually worse.

The Yankees need to heat up at the plate, but they hit Hochevar at a .311 clip. Kansas are struggling too, but have shown signs of life of late. I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 26-25 (+1.58)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

The Reds at the Bucs doesn't exactly inspire, mainly because these are a couple of awkward pitchers to size up with confidence.

Mike Leake has been poor and posts 1.66/7.47 WHIP/ERA L3 (and his home splits aren't any better) but he has a 2.65 ERA lifetime against the Pirates, including 4QS out of 6 starts where he was shaded by a run to take the loss in three of those appearances.

James McDonald certainly has the better numbers this season (0.91/2.41 L3) but Pittsburgh are weak at the plate and it's difficult to rely on a lot of run support tonight.

However, the home team are hitting a collective .290 against Leake, whereas the Reds have a .269 line against McDonald, so I'll roll with Pirates and hope they get a few runs home to help their guy.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 25-25 (+0.63)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Baltimore @ Boston

Hammel has started well - 1.11/1.89 WHIP/ERA L3. Cook has been called up from Triple-A ball for a spot start against a team hitting .319 against him.

Both teams are on qualifying streaks; Baltimore have W3 in a row and Boston are going in the opposite direction.

The road dog is the value.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 107/100; 2.07; 107

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 24-25 (-0.44)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Texas @ Cleveland

Tonight's pitchers have excellent numbers L3; Colby Lewis 1.05/2.25 WHIP/ERA and Jeanmar Gomez 0.98/2.70.

The Indians are hitting .227 against Lewis and while Gomez hasn't faced the hard hitting Rangers before, his even lower splits at home suggest that Unders is the bet.

Under 8.5 @ 83/100; 1.83; -120

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 24-24 (+0.56)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Dodgers @ Cubbies

Wrigley Field - if the wind is in, go Under; if the wind is out, well, go Over.

As it appears the wind this afternoon is off Lake Michigan, I'll test the theory and take the Under, but double check the weather, as it's always a risky, last minute bet.

Pick: Under 7 @ 19/20; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 24-23 (+1.56)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)