orioles

ChiSox @ Cubbies

Jeff Samardzija deserves some respect for the numbers he's put up so far this season, but Phil Humber has steadied the ship a little after his perfect game seemed to unsettle him.

The White Sox have won six of the last nine meetings on the North Side, so I'll play the Cubs' losing streak.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 121/100; 2.21; 121

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 32-38 (-4.73)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

St Louis @ San Francisco

Wainwright has been inconsistent this season; his numbers look poor and he's lost his last three starts at AT&T with a 4.09 ERA.

Matt Cain has been outstanding, but has received no run support, but I'll take his strong arm to get the home side over the line.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 50/59; 1.84; -118

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 31-38 (-5.57)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Boston @ Tampa Bay

Clay Buchholz is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last four matchups with the Rays and 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts at Tropicana Field. This Rays lineup is hitting a collective .238 against him, but his form this season has been horrible. Hellickson is toting a 2.05/7.56 WHIP/ERA line L3 (even worse on the road) and is putting too many people on - a fatal error.

The story for Jeremy Hellickson is almost the direct opposite; his numbers on the season are excellent (1.15/3.12 L3) and he has been particularly strong at home. However, he is 2-1 lifetime with a 4.99 ERA against the Red Sox and this lineup is hitting .270 against him. He gave up 5 runs in 5 IP in April at Fenway.

Boston is hitting the cover off the ball at the moment (.305 vs righties L5) and Buchholz has got a ton of run support to hide his poor performances, so backing him is risky, but I won't back the home team at 1.71. So, I'll look for some value elsewhere and take the Red Sox surging bats and solid pen to get Bucholz home and cover it with Overs.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 13/10; 2.30; 130
Pick: Over 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 31-36 (-3.57)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Oakland @ Halos

An example of the perils of totals betting in the early game; the wind changed against us on a hot day and bang - four homers, nine runs and catastrophe! Keep a sharp eye on the weather.

This is an interesting match up; Santana has the better numbers L3, but the Angels are struggling to get runs home and the pitchers' splits reveal that, on the road, Colon has a 0.92/1.59 WHIP/ERA line and Santana has a 1.11/5.23 WHIP/ERA.

Also, Santana has struggled lately with the A's and Colon has beaten him already this season. A former Angel, Colon is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA over five starts against his old team and looks the value here.

Pick: Oakland As @ 29/20; 2.45; 145

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 31-35 (-2.57)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Detroit @ Chisox

Max Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA in his last seven starts against the White Sox and is running into some form, but Jake Peavy has been a revelation this season, with every single start this term a quality start. Peavy has only given up 3 runs once and is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA at home and looks the bet here.

Neither ball club is finding much consistency at the plate, and with Detroit hitting just .200 against Peavy and the White Sox hitting .210 against Scherzer, I'll go Under too.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 50/57; 1.87; -114
Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 31-33 (-0.57)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Cubbies @ St Louis

The Cubs are hitting .247 (.253 vs righties) L10 and despite stellar numbers, Ryan Dempster hasn't got a win this season because he's received almost no run support. It's difficult to see them turning things around tonight against Jake Westbrook (1.13/2.21 WHIP/ERA).

I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 31-32 (+0.43)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Angels @ Texas

Going under at a sunny Arlington, with the the wind out and the way Texas are hitting, is a dangerous call, but the two pitchers today are capable of keeping the score low if they can keep it in the park.

The worry is Weaver staying on top of the Rangers; they are hitting (a not terrifying) .244 against him and he has a very strong 0.81/0.43 WHIP/ERA line L3, so he can keep a lid on it.

Feliz is .118/.237/.118 Avg/OBP/SLG against the Halos and he is 1.21/3.79 WHIP/ERA L3, which should be enough to keep them in check.

However, Weaver doesn't typically enjoy Arlington (1-6/5.35 ERA in his last 11 in Texas) so I'll take a little on the runline too in case he gets lit up.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 8/5; 2.6; 160
Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 30-31 (-0.17)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

San Diego @ Philadelphia

Let us pray.

OK, Edinson Volquez has a 0.93/1.40 WHIP/ERA line L3. Halladay was rocked by the Braves, but otherwise he's been, well, Doc Halladay. Besides, the Padres are hitting like the Padres always do.

The Phillies are heating up at the plate, but they're hitting Volquez at just a .200 clip.

These pitchers have lifetime ERAs at about the 2.00 mark against tonight's opposition.

It's a 6.5 line and unless there's a really good reason to go Over, I always look for the Unders bet.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

Seattle @ Pinstripes

Neither pitcher fills me with joy, particularly on the disastrous run I appear to have embarked upon, but Hector Noesi has given up 4,3,1 runs L3 and is sure to want to impress back at Yankee Stadium for the first time.

I don't like Hughes and he can be vulnerable if he starts badly. The Yankee bullpen is still a little unsettled, so I'm going to take a punt on Hughes stumbling and Noesi and Montero getting some payback.

Pick: Seattle Mariners @ 9/5; 2.80; 180

Halos @ Texas

There are some hot bats in this one, with the Rangers in particular hitting the pill hard. Texas are batting .366 vs lefties L5 and this afternoon's lefty has a 1.21/5.17 WHIP/ERA line L3; collectively, the Rangers are hitting .326 against C.J.Wilson and they should reach him today, so I like the look of the runline.

As for the totals; Matt Harrison's numbers are poor L3 (2.09/9.98) and he has struggled at home. The wind is out and HP ump Hunter Wendelstedt went 13-2 O/U against high totals' lines last year (not a stat to take seriously!) and so even with the number at 9, I'll go Over.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 13/10; 2.3; 130
Pick: Over 9 @ 4/5; 1.87; -125

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 29-28 (+1.83)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)