orioles

San Francisco @ Miami

These two pitchers are in rare form; 0.98/0.84 and 1.10/2.14 WHIP/ERA L3 Ryan Vogelsong and Anibal Sanchez respectively, and with the Unders available at Even money, that looks the value, despite the ballpark.

Recently, when I've shot for Over, home runs have been solos (including back to back to back!) and Unders have seen grand salamis and multi-run dingers - even this afternoon's game saw Detroit's offense squander 5 free passes and go 0-9 RISP! So strap in, I'm on one of those runs that reminds you that baseball is an 'anything can happen' game.

God, I love it :)

Pick: Under 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 36-43 (-5.54)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Detroit @ Cleveland

My extensive research (OK, someone else's research) and mathematical analysis (someone else's maths too) shows us that turning heavy road favourites into dogs is the best way to bet the runline.

This is just such a game.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 36-42 (-4.54)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Texas @ Seattle

Both these pitchers have run into a little form and although taking on the Rangers' bats is a worry, I'll take this to go Under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

Boston @ Baltimore

I like betting totals, but I'm taking a helluva beating on the live games.

These two pitchers are not to be trusted; Arrieta had a great outing last time, but he's dreadfully inconsistent and Daniel Bard has an ERA north of 6.00 away from Fenway.

These are two teams who can put up runs ... this MUST go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 20/23; 1.87; -115

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 35-42 (-5.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Toronto @ Tampa Bay

Matt More has good stuff, and is still being touted as a rookie of the year candidate, but he's off to a decidedly average start. He carries a 5.20 ERA into this game and L3 he has a 0-3/1.60/7.20 W/L/WHIP/ERA.

Drew Hutchison was selected in the 15th round by the Jays and never figured to tear it up in the bigs and sure enough, his numbers aren't good (1.51/4.38) but there has been an improvement of late (1.38/3.13 WHIP/ERA L3) and a little buzz, having given up one run on five hits against the Yankees last time out. However, both pitchers are issuing too many walks.

Toronto are hitting .310 against lefties L3, and although I don't expect them to drop the hammer on someone like Matt Moore the first time they see him, the Jays are at least hitting. The Rays are scuffling a little at the plate and if Hutchison can cut out the free passes, he looks the value tonight.

I like the Unders too; these pitchers are unknown quantities for the lineups, one offense is struggling and at least one of these pitchers is capable of shutting down a team.

A tight, low scoring game at the Trop with Toronto edging it? Here's hoping!

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays @ 31/25; 2.24; 124
Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 35-40 (-3.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Atlanta @ Cincinnati

There's no point sugar coating this one; these two pitchers stink. Mike Minor is sporting a 1.45/7.09 WHIP/ERA on the season (1.57/7.53 away) and Mike Leake 1.59/6.21 (1.89/8.53). Horrible.

Atlanta have been slightly gun shy at the plate L2, but faced decent pitching and even if Jones is still out, it shouldn't unduly handicap them. The Reds are hitting nicely and should reach Minor without too much trouble.

Overs looks an obvious call at Great American Ball Park with a couple of rag arms on the mound, so it'll probably be a three run pitchers' duel, but what the hell.

Pick: Over 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 35-39 (-2.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

St Louis @ Dodgers

Both pitchers stumbled last time out, but Lohse has much the better numbers on the season. Billingsley's splits are slightly better at home and the Dodgers have the sign over the Cardinals having won the last six meetings.

That head-to-head streaks aside, these two are streaking in the opposite direction and, despite Kemp's absence and Billingsley's vulnerability, the Dodgers look the value.

Pick: LA Dodgers @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 34-39 (-3.52)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Boston @ Philadelphia

Cliff Lee has been his usual self, pitching up a storm, but he's been getting little or no run support. I suspect he'll need to be sharp today against a Red Sox team that has started hitting the ball hard.

Josh Beckett has had an interesting first quarter and may just be pitching with a little fire in his belly, but again he'll need to have his stuff against a Phillies' lineup hitting .306 L5.

Lee is too short and with the line at 7, my instinct is always to go Under, but I have a feeling there could be some runs on offer and Under is short enough, so I'll take my courage in my hands and go Over.

Home plate umpire Paul Emmel is 7/0 O/U!

Pick: Over 7 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 34-38 (-2.52)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Baltimore @ Washington

It has to be the Birds, they're running too hot.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 100/101; 1.99; -108

Minnesota @ Milwaukee

The Twins are hitting the ball hard (.281 vs righties L5) whereas the Brewers, Braun excepted, are not (.198).

Given the respective streaks, Minnesota look the bet, but Pavano is banged up and looks vulnerable, particularly at Miller Park. Gallardo has the stuff, but struggled at the beginning of the season and his ERA is inflated as a result, however he can be reached and the surging Twins should test him.

I can't have the home team at the price, but this one could see some runs scored, so I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 33-38 (-3.52)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)