orioles

Boston @ Toronto

Thank god that month is over!

Felix Doubront has been solid this season. He has performed well against Toronto already this term and the Blue Jays are hitting just .232 against lefties L10.

Drabek has been a pleasant surprise, but got hit hard his last time out by the Rangers and the Red Sox may be gathering some momentum, despite injuries, hitting .326 L3 as they have gone above .500 on the season.

The 1.9 for Boston looks the value.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 10/11; 1.9; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 40-50 (-7.95)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Detroit @ Boston

I've been hammering away at the runline now and it has not gone well. Last night was another choker, with the ChiSox going 3-13 RISP, plating 4 runs on 11 hits and I got stymied by the Rays' 3 runs on just 4 hits.

The maths of this bet are well documented, but essentially, if you assume the heavy favourite wins the game, the chance of them beating the runline too are about 70%. This rises even further for the road favourite turned into a dog by betting the runline.

Tonight's game sees two sides on contrasting streaks (Det L3; Bos W3)

Scherzer is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA - his highest against any opponent - in four starts versus Boston, but has shown marked improvement recently and even in the midst of serving up a high ERA on the season has K'd a ton of batters.

Beckett is coming off three quality starts and this Tigers' lineup is hitting .262 against him. He's solid at home, but is mighty short, so I'll flog the dead horse once again.

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 6/4; 2.5; 150

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 40-49 (-6.95)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

ChiSox @ Tampa Bay

I'm looking forward to this game; two young pitchers who've shown some form since coming up face off in the final game of the series, with the White Sox looking for the sweep and their eighth win off the belt.

Alex Cobb appears to be what the Rays hoped he'd be and seems to belong in the majors. Cobb is 2-0 on the season with a 2.25 ERA. Jose Quintana, more of a surprise success, is going into his second start of the season after four hitting the Indians over six innings last Friday.

The difference should be on offense; the South Siders have been hammering the cover off the ball recently, hitting .328 (righties at .379) L5 or .308/.299 L10 if you prefer a larger sample size. The Rays however, are hitting only .190/.180 L5 (.211/210 L10)

I can't have Quintana at the price SU, so I'll take one more run at the mathematics of turning road favourites into dogs on the runline and settle back with a cup of tea and a slice of cake.

Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ 13/8; 2.62; 162

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 40-48 (-5.95)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Detroit @ Boston

According to Jon Lester, "Verlander is Verlander. He's tough". You can't say fairer than that, although it's not the greatest baseball revelation of our times.

Verlander is 0.54/1.12 WHIP/ERA L3 and 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox. This Boston lineup is hitting .209 against him.

Daniel Bard has made an unsteady move from the bullpen to the starting rotation and is walking far too many batters for his health; he has 28 strikeouts on the season ... and a terrifying 29 walks.

The price for Detroit is too short, and as this appears to be a favourable run line situation (although the price is still pretty skinny) I'll give the runs again.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 40-47 (-4.95)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

San Diego @ Cubbies

A couple of clubs who are a collective 4-16 in their last 20 means that we're unlikely to see a lot of dazzling baseball from Wrigley Field this afternoon.

Jeff Samardzija has been strong at home (2-1, 0.84/1.52 WHIP/ERA) and the Padres are hitting just .238 L5, so the Cubs shouldn't have to put too many runs up to take the game.

Eric Stults has solid enough numbers. He has been lit up by the Cubs before, but it was long enough ago that the memory should have faded, that said, the remaining members of the Chicago lineup are hitting a collective .421 against him, with a .476 OBP.

I like the Cubs, who are hitting .270 L5, to reach Stults today, so I'll give the runs to wring out some value.

Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ 29/20; 2.45; 145

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 39-47 (-6.40)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Arizona @ San Francisco

Not a game that fills me with deep joy, but it looks as though Barry Zito is vulnerable after struggling on the mound L3. Cahill's numbers recently aren't particularly inspiring, but he had a strong outing last time. Arizona are hitting marginally better and look the bet.

Pick: Arizona @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 39-46 (-5.40)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Washington @ Atlanta

Atlanta are on a six game losing streak. Beachy has good stuff, but the Nats hit him at a .314 clip with a .364 OBP.

Gio Gonzalez (6-1, 1.98 ERA) is 1.17/.250 WHIP/ERA L3 and the Braves are hitting just .190 against lefties L5.

The road dog's the bet.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 57/50; 2.14; 114

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 38-46 (-6.54)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Tampa Bay @ Boston

Clay Buchholz has been inconsistent this season and has horrible numbers, although his record against the Rays is better. Jeremy Hellickson is in the opposite situation, with good numbers on the season, but Boston have troubled him this year at Fenway.

However, Hellickson looks 'the pitcher most likely' here and must be the value at Evens.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 37-46 (-7.54)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Philadelphia @ St Louis

Garcia is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA against the Phillies and Kendrick is 1.06/2.00 WHIP/ERA L3.

This strongly suggests that even at Busch Stadium, it should go Under, right? No chance.

Pick: Under 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

Toronto @ Texas

The Blue Jays have stumbled a little recently and Henderson Alvarez has struggled right along with them, putting way too many batters on base, so it's not a great time to take on the Texas offense in Arlington; however, he has decent enough stuff and his splits on the road are good.

Colby Lewis is coming off a couple of good starts, so I'll take Texas on the runline and go Under.

Pick: Texas -1.5 @ 6/5; 2.2; 120
Pick: Under 10.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 36-44 (-6.54)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)