orioles

Detroit @ Cincinnati

As my reader will know, I like left-handed rookies going through lineups for the first time. Well, Drew Smyly will test that preference with his performance dropping off a cliff this last month. The Reds haven't seen him before however, and Homer Bailey can't be backed at 1.8, so the Tigers are the bet.

The recent record of these two pitchers suggests Overs is value too.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 28/25; 2.12; 112
Pick: Over 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 48-52 (-2.27)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Texas @ San Francisco

A similar pick to last night's - the opposing pitcher's splits are poor and the price on Ryan Vogelsong is attractive. In fact, it's so attractive it begins to look trappy, but the home team are the bet.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 47-52 (-3.18)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
Bal @ 2.12
NYM @ 2.38
Cle @ 2.28

(23-27, +1.57)

B
No picks

(6-5, +1.45)

C
Tor/Atl Over 8.5 @ 2.1
Phi/Bal Under 9.5 @ 1.91
SD/Mil Under 9 @ 1.95
Det/Cin Under 7.5 @ 1.91
KC/Pit Over 7 @ 1.87

(23-12-1, +9.25)

Washington @ Boston

Felix Doubront has pitched well this season (although his splits suggest some vulnerability at home) but I can't resist Stephen Strasburg at the price.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 100/103; 1.97; -103

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 46-52 (-4.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
NYM @ 2.2
Hou @ 2.29
ChC @ 2.22
SF @ 2.25
KC @ 2.25
Det @ 2.26
TB @ 2.03
SD @ 2.46
Cle @ 2.33
Oak @ 2.35

(20-20, +4.92)

B
NYM @ 2.2
TB @ 2.03

(5-4, +1.42)

C
KC/Pit Over 7 @ 1.87
Det/Cin Under 9 @ 2.00
SD/Mil Under 8 @ 1.91
Tex/SF Under 7.5 @ 1.91

(22-9-1, +12.34)

Cleveland @ Detroit

Detroit are on a three game losing streak and Lowe is flashing good stuff against a team he's traditionally dominated. The road dog is the value.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 109/100; 2.09; 109

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 46-51 (-3.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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A
Cle @ 2.1
Bal @ 2.35
Was @ 2.13
ChC @ 2.05
Pit @ 2.49
Atl @ 2.26

(18-16, +6.17)

B
No selection

(5-4, +1.42)

C
Cubs/Mil Under 7.5 @ 2.00
TB/NYY Over 8 @ 2.1
Pit/Cin Uner 8.5 @ 1.91

(20-8-1, +11.24)

Tampa Bay @ Yankees

I like Alex Cobb, he pitched well in AAA ball and carried that form into the bigs when he got called up to fill in when Jeff Niemann got injured, but the Yankees look dangerous and the Rays are a slightly faltering, error prone team of late.

Ivan Nova is less inspiring and has benefited from a ton of run support. He owns a 1.76/6.46 WHIP/ERA at home and looks vulnerable, but Tampa aren't hitting (.159 L5).

Cobb keeps the ball down and if he can avoid the long ball (and his team can play some defense) that and the Rays cold bats can keep this under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 45-51 (-4.06)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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I've had a request to include the system bets I post on the NA forum, so here you go. 3 systems, record in brackets:

A
TB @ 2.32
CWS @ 2.08
Min @ 2.47
Sea @ 2.41
Oak @ 2.38
LAD @ 2.03
Atl @ 2.4
Hou @ 2.25
Col @ 2.25

(13-12, +3.48)

B
LAD @ 2.03

(4-4, +0.39)

C
Cle/Det Over 9 @ 2.1
TB/NYY Over 9 @ 1.91
Tex/Oak Under 7.5 @ 1.91

(18-7-1, +10.23)

Atlanta @ Miami

Anibal Sanchez has better numbers on the season, but Tim Hudson has history on his side.

Sanchez is 4-10 lifetime against Atlanta with a 5.11 ERA and is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in his last six starts against Atlanta.

In contrast, Hudson is 11-4 with a 2.94 ERA lifetime against Miami and positively owned them in the old Sun Life Stadium.

The Marlins and Braves' lineups are hitting .298/.276 respectively against tonight's pitchers and I'm going to take the old man on the road and save it on the overs with the Marlins' hot bats.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 6/5; 2.2; 120
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110


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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 43-51 (-6.17)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

St Louis @ Cubs

The Cards are skidding, Jake Westbrook has been roughed up in his last two starts and St Louis haven't troubled the scorers in the first two of this series.

Jonathon Niese is 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in three starts versus St. Louis at Citi Field.

The Mets look the value.

Pick: New York Mets @ 100/103; 1.97; -103

Cubs @ San Francisco

Neither of these offenses is overpowering the opposition and unders looks the call.

Under 7.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Yanks @ Detroit

Verlander hit a little bump in the road at Boston last time out, but otherwise he has been very strong and his splits at home (0.66/1.37 WHIP/ERA) are stellar - he's 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA against the Yankees L3 at Comerica.

Offensively, Detroit are hitting a very respectable .311 L5 (.291 vs righties) and Phil Hughes looks vulnerable on the road with 1.58/6.57 WHIP/ERA away from the Bronx. Hughes also had a rough time last time out, and he has a strong record at Comerica, although the big beasts in the Tigers' lineup have hit him hard in the past.

Verlander will need to go deep tonight, because the Detroit bullpen stinks and having watched Papa Grande pitch like a limon grande last night (2BB, 2 hit batters and a blown save) Jim Leyland may look elsewhere; let's hope he doesn't need to worry about it though, because I'm going back to the runline.

Pick: Deroit Tigers -1.5 @ 13/10; 2.30; 130

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 41-51 (-8.05)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

LAD @ Colorado

The Rockies are ripping it up; when Dexter Fowler is 14 for 23 with three homers and nine RBIs in six games, then you know the cards are falling their way. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are in a slump where getting a runner home becomes a herculean task.

I'm tempted by the price for the Dodgers, but Colorado are on such a roll, they're difficult to oppose, but Nicasio can't be backed at 1.66.

Instead, I'll take on the towering total, with the home pitcher boasting a 7.04 ERA at Coors Field and Harang a 4.86 ERA on the road.

Pick: Over 10.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100