orioles

Yankees @ Mets

Both these pitchers have put up nice numbers L3. Pettitte has only given up more than 3 runs twice in ten outings against the Mets and Niese blanked the Yankees on June 10 (two unearned runs).

I'll take the Unders at the price.

Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 59-53 (+7.72)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
TB @ 2.25
Pit @ 2.1
NYM @ 2.25
StL @ 2.02
ChC @ 2.49
Sea @ 2.06

(54-55, +10.6)

B
Was @ 2.1
TB @ 2.25

(11-16, -3.83)

C
Tor/Mia Under 8.5 @ 1.87
Mil/CWS Under 7.5 @ 1.83
SF/Oak Over 7 @ 1.87
LAD/LAA Over 7 @ 1.91

(46-38-2, +4.62)

Colorado @ Philadelphia

These two pitchers have stratospheric numbers L3, with WHIPs at 1.39/1.68 (Hamels/Outman) and ERAs of 6.75/7.94. Hamels' splits are better at home, but Outman has an 18.69 ERA on the road.

Go Over.

Pick: Over 8 @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 58-53 (+6.67)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
Pit @ 1.98
Mia @ 2.38
KC @ 2.12
Tor @ 2.14
Sea @ 2.45

(49-49, +10.56)

B
StL @ 2.38

(11-14, -1.83)

C
Cin/Cle Under 9.5 @ 2.1
Bal/NYM Over 7.5 @ 2.0
KC/Hou Under 8 @ 1.95
Sea/Ari Over 9 @ 1.91

(41-36-2, +1.83)

Yanks @ Washington

These are two pitchers with nice numbers, but I can't buck the Yankees' win streak, so I'll take them and the Unders at skinny enough odds.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 87/100; 1.87; -114
Pick: Under 8 @ 87/100; 1.87; -114

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 56-53 (+4.93)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
Pit @ 2.25
Phi @ 2.23
Bal @ 2.1
TB @ 2.08
Ari @ 2.15
CWS @ 2.1
SF @ 2.05
ChC @ 2.12

(44-43, +10.98)

B
Bal @ 2.1
Was @ 2.06
SF @ 2.05

(9-12, -1.91)

C
Bal/Atl Over 8.5 @ 2.05
Mil/Min Over 8.5 @ 2.0
SD/Oak Under 8 @ 2.0

(39-32-2, +3.83)

Milwaukee @ Minnesota

I'd like to thank my reader for his hearty congratulations on my 10th successive winning pick. If you had let £10 ride on the selections, you'd now be £527 richer, apparently.

Just to prove my versatility, I'll now lose the next ten without the aid of a net.

This looks like Over; Michael Fiers has nice splits on the road, but the sample size isn't significant. Liam Hendriks has been aces in the minors this term, but has been hammered when he's pitched in the bigs. I'd like to see the Brewers be a little hotter at the plate, but they should be able to reach him.

The weather's a worry too, but I'm fearless.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ Evens; 2.0; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 56-52 (+5.93)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
Phi @ 1.96
Mil @ 2.09
KC @ 2.23
Col @ 2.43
CHC @ 2.35
Cin @ 2.00
Ari @ 2.23

(42-38, +13.89)

B
Phi @ 1.96
KC @ 2.2
Bal @ 2.41
Mia @ 2.23

(7-10, -2.55)

C
Mil/Min Over 9.5 @ 2.0
Col/Det Under 9 @ 1.95
Cin/NYM Under 8 @ 1.95
Mia/TB Under 7.5 @ 1.91
Ari/LAA Over 8 @ 1.83

(36-30-2, +3.02)

Boston @ Cubs

I like to oppose pitchers in their first few games back from TJ surgery and given Dempster's form lately, the Cubs look the value.

Chicago aren't scoring many runs, but the Red Sox are in a mini slump at the plate too, so I'll take the home dog.

Pick: Chicago Cubs @ 57/50; 2.14; 114

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 55-52 (+4.79)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
CHC @ 2.06
Phi @ 2.13
Min @ 2.05
Ari @ 2.47

(40-36, +13.36)

B
Mia @ 2.3
CHW @ 2.17

(7-8, -0.55)

C
Cin/NYM Under 8 @ 2.0
Mia/TB Under 7.5 @ 2.15
Hou/Tex Under 10 @ 1.91
Mil/Min Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Ari/LAA Over 7 @ 1.91
SF/Sea Under 7 @ 1.83
CHW/LAD Over 5.5 @ 1.83

(33-26-2, +4.45)

Arizona @ Texas

Two pitchers in even worse shape than the two rag arms in the early game and that has pushed the totals' line out to 10.

Even so, with the hard hitting Texans on a roll and these two so fragile, I'll reluctantly take it on to see if I can land nine winning picks in a row

Pick: Over 10 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 54-52 (+3.88)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Two pitchers who don't inspire much confidence, pitching in Great American Ball Park, suggests Over.

Cleveland's hitting is a concern, but the weather is set fair and Dana DeMuth went 26-8 OU last year.

I'll roll with Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 19/29; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 53-52 (+2.93)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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A
Cle @ 2.15
Oak @ 2.0
Hou @ 2.2
KC @ 2.12
Phi @ 2.31
CHW @ 2.2
SD @ 2.21

(35-34, +9.52)

B
Mets @ 2.13

(6-8, -1.55)

C
Cle/Cin Over 9 @ 1.95
Mil/KC Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Phi/Min Over 9 @ 1.9

(32-24-2, +5.5)

Yankees @ Atlanta

The Bombers are on a 5 game winning streak, the Braves are on a 3 game skid the other way. Hiroki Kuroda has pitched well L3, whereas Tim Hudson has a 5.06 ERA L3 and his ERA at home is nearly 6.

Respect the streaks and bet the hot hand on the road.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 100/107; 1.93; -107

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 52-52 (+2.00)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Washington at Toronto

Two teams heading in opposite directions. Stephen Strasburg is pitching beautifully and the Nats are hitting. Toronto are struggling to get runners home and may not get too many on base today in any case. Drabek has pitched well at home, but has poor numbers L3.

I'll give the runs.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 @ 2.15

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 51-52 (+0.85)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
Cle @ 2.3
Bos @ 2.0
Det @ 2.0
Mil @ 2.01
Oak @ 2.01
SD @ 2.38

(31-32, +7.13)

B
Ari @ 2.51
CHW @ 2.21

(6-6, +0.45)

C
Pit/Bal Under 9 @ 1.87
Cle/Cin Over 9 @ 1.91
Bos/Mia Over 8.5 @ 1.83
CHW/StL Over 8 @ 2.0
Oak/Col Under 11 @ 1.95
SD/Sea Over 8 @ 2.0

(30-20-2, +7.8)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

The Bucs and the Birds, two teams punching above their weight - although the former may be for real (I've taken a little of the 16/1 available on the Pirates for the NL Central) while my O's look like they're heading for the usual half term engine strike.

This is an interesting matchup, with two pitchers who have flashed some decent stuff, but can get roughed up. Chen's splits at home are strong, Lincoln is better on the road, and these two have never faced these lineups, so it may be that one or both of tonight's starters can have a good game, but it's precisely that inconsistency that means I'll look for value in the Overs.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 50-52 (-0.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System Bets

A
Was @ 2.38
Min 2.05
ChC 2.19

(28-32, +3.51)

B
No picks

(6-6, +0.45)

C
Pit/Bal Under 8.5 @ 1.95
Cle/Cin Over 8.5 @ 1.91
NYY/Atl Over 8 @ 1.91
Bos/Mia Over 8 @ 2.0
Ari/Tex Over 10 @ 2.15
Det/ChC Under 8 @ 1.91
Phi/Min Under 9 @ 2.00

(28-16-1, +9.98)