orioles

Tampa @ Baltimore

The Orioles aren't getting it done on offense and seem to be in danger of their usual stall.

The Rays may have found a little momentum after adding Ryan Roberts and have a strong recent record against the birds.

I'll bet the losing streak.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.91

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 79-66 (+19.95)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Atlanta @ Miami

The Marlins have thrown their hand in for the season and the clubhouse can't be great at the moment. They're struggling to score (shedding Ramirez won't help) and look vulnerable here.

Tommy Hanson has nice numbers in Miami and I'll have a crack at the runline with the Marlins fielding a shaky Nolasco.

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ 2.45

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 78-66 (+18.50)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Washington @ Mets

The Mets are done and Dickey isn't mowing 'em down as easily; throw in a bullpen that stinks and tonight the road dog looks value riding a three game winning streak.

Gonzalez hardly inspires at the moment, so I'll take a little Over too with the line at 7.5.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.00
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.15

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 77-65 (+18.50)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Washington @ Mets

The Mets seem to have hit the wall (1-9 L10) and Young has moderate numbers L3, so it looks tough for them tonight against a Nats side hitting .340 L5 against righties with Zimmerman on the mound (0.74/0.47 WHIP/ERA L3).

Washington have owned the Mets this season, so I'll look for a little value on the runline.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 @ 2.3

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 76-65 (+17.20)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Yankees @ Oakland

I've spoken about streaks in baseball ad nauseam and this is the ultimate test of the theory: a losing streak runs up against a winning streak, when the sliding team has no right to lose to the win-streak opposing pitcher.

CC Sabathia has been strong recently and has nice numbers against the A's. Bartolo Colon has decent enough numbers L3, but CC he ain't!

I'll bet the rolling Oakland team and see if the wisdom holds up.

Pick: Oakland A's @ 2.77

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels 1am

The night owls among you can look for the Texans to recoup your losses after the Oakland A's got reamed in the 9pm game

Harrison has been red hot and with the Rangers' offense going up against Dan Haren (always consider opposing a pitcher's first start off the DL) they should be a strong bet.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 1.91

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 75-64 (+16.43)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets 6pm

The Mets' rotation is on its knees and although the Dodgers have been light at the plate, Kemp's return seems to be putting a little pop into their offense.

Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 @ 2.3

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels 9pm

These two pitchers have been hit hard L3, but their splits reveal definite road/home bias; if Darvish is rocked, it tends to be on the road, whereas Ervin Santana seems happier on his home hill.

I'll take the home dog and go Over in a balmy Anaheim with Gary Darling behind home.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels @ 2.05
Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.91

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals 12am

Season debutant John Lannan is 6-9 with a 4.89 ERA in 18 starts for Triple-A Syracuse this year, losing his last three outings with a 7.27 ERA. Fill-in Randall Delgado has a 2.21/7.15 WHIP/ERA L3.

Over.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.95

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 73-62 (+16.22)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Chisox @ Boston

I go Over and it starts raining and the teams go 2-14 RISP. I'm not bitter.

Boston are putting up big numbers on offense and these two pitchers have interesting stats of late; Quintana has been roughed up on the road (there are few more intimidating road trips than Fenway) and Clay Buchholz looks as though he's regathering after his time on the DL.

I'll look for the Red Sox to chase the road dog.

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.45

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 72-62 (+14.77)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Halos @ Detroit

Neither pitcher inspires and both of these lineups have enough power to put up big innings.

I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 2.00

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 72-61 (+15.77)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System bets are available on the forum

Angels @ Detroit

Although Pujols is showing signs of life (if there's a price for the long ball tonight, take a little) I don't like Santana, and the Tigers are hitting .308 L5 and are 7-3 L10.

This Halos' lineup is hitting .228 against Porcello, with a .253 OBP; I like Detroit to dominate.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.62

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 71-61 (+14.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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System bets are available on the forum

St Louis @ Cincinnati

For you night owls ...

There are some hot bats in this one and two pitchers who can give up runs in a hitter's ballpark with the weather set fair.

Go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.87

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 71-61 (+14.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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