orioles

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

The two pitchers can't be trusted and one, or both of them, could get hit hard tonight.

I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 2.05

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 84-74 (+21.16)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

I'm looking forward to this one as these two fight it out down the stretch. Latos has nice numbers against the Pirates this season, but with Votto and Phillips (probably) still out, I do get nervous, despite the fact that the offense seemingly hasn't missed a beat and the Reds are, well, red hot.

Contrast Rodriguez, who has weak numbers L3 and a 6.35 ERA against tonight's opposition.

I've got a buddy who says in a Divisional matchup between first and second in the latter half of the season, bet the dog, but he lives in a shelter in downtown Baltimore.

When Latos last took on the Pirates, he didn't give up an earned run (he's never given up more than 2 against them) and struck out 11. I'm going to take on the runline and hope Rodriguez and Latos stay with their numbers and the Reds can put up some runs.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ 2.55

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 83-74 (+19.61)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds 5.30pm

Cincinnati are rolling, there are echoes of The Big Red Machine, which is all the more remarkable given that Joey Votto is out and Brandon Phillips looks as though he'll be missing too.

Johnny Cueto has been solid and his splits at home are excellent. Ross Ohlendorf has nice numbers L3, but his numbers against the Reds and on the road are less encouraging.

Difficult to wring any value out of the market, but I'll try to ride that home team momentum.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ 2.1

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants 8.30pm

The Giants aren't hitting, and although Young hasn't been great L3, he's traditionally done OK in San Francisco, although it's three years since he pitched in AT&T Park.

I'll rely on those elements and Zito's good form, to take this Under.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 2.00

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals 12am

Cole Hamels owns the Nats and he's the value here.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.04

Chisox @ Minnesota

Gimme left handed rookies who are home dogs. It's not the perfect situation (the White Sox have seen him before) but Scott Diamond has got good numbers L3 and looks the value here.

Pick: Minnesota Twins @ 2.10

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 82-71 (+21.51)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Houston @ Milwaukee

After paying for last night's cowardice and not going Over (it only covered by 12 runs!) I'm steering clear again tonight, even though these pitchers are struggling.

Dallas Keuchel has been rocked recently and with Braun due back, the Brewers should reach him.

Gallardo has been struggling of late too, but the Astros rank 27th in runs scored and shouldn't be giving him sleepless nights. This Houston lineup is hitting just .156 against him with a .188 OBP and he's 11-2 lifetime against them.

I don't enjoy exotic bets, but Keuchel is particularly vulnerable early and Houston stink, so for a little early morning entertainment, I'll take a couple of the more interesting handicaps.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to win by 4 or more runs @ 3.10 (WH)
Pick: Winner after 3 innings Milwaukee Brewers @ 2.00

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 82-71 (+18.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Angels @ Texas

These pitchers have horrible numbers and pitching in Arlington this could be a cricket score. When I say horrible, I mean 3.00/16.00 WHIP/ERA for Santana and 1.44/5.94 for Oswalt. This has pushed the Totals out to 11. I think I could count the number of times I've gone Over on that bet on the fingers of one hand in 25+ years, and I'm not going to now, but damn, it's tempting, as even the available bullpens look ugly tonight.

Instead, I'm going to trust the Rangers to beat the hell out of Santana, who is 0-1 against the Rangers with a 32.40 ERA in just 1 2/3 innings pitched this season. He's headed for Utah.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 2.45

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 82-70 (+19.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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*Last night's pick was really stupid. There's a reason I play losing streaks harder than winning streaks; it's because teams on that type of skid just find ways to lose (witness last night's drop of a simple pop up) Think hard before playing against them. The Totals' bet came in, but it was wasted because I left the principles I've spent so long using. Stooopid.

Don't do it, kids

Dodgers @ San Francisco

The Giants have cooled at the plate, while the Dodgers have heated up, but these two pitchers have some crazy numbers:

Clayton Kershaw has a career 1.45 ERA versus San Francisco - the lowest all-time. Ryan Vogelsong, has a 1.01/1.41 WHIP/ERA at home - the lowest in the NL this year.

I'm going to buck the losing streak here though, because the Dodgers are too short. Vogelsong has beaten Kershaw twice already this season (and has better numbers L3) and the Giants have hit lefties hard L5.

I'll also go Under.

Pick: San Francisco @ 2.09
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.91

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 81-69 (+19.50)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Detroit @ Toronto 6pm

Both pitchers can give up runs, so I'll go with my least favourite bet.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 2.00

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 9pm

Lester has horrible numbers L3 and the Yankees are looking ominously powerful at the plate. CC can close it down, so I'll go on the runline.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 2.05

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 81-67 (+21.50)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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St Louis @ Cubs

This seems like a straightforward pick, with Lynn dominating the Cubs and the Cards heavily outscoring this afternoon's opposition.

Add in Travis Wood's numbers and the St Louis win streak and I'll take a short enough price on the runline.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.00

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 80-67 (+20.50)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Detroit @ Cleveland

This is a really tough game to call; Verlander is in form and almost impossible to oppose, but he's equally unbackable at the price - even the runline is best price Evens and although it's a favourable position with the Tigers as the road team, it's too short.

Totals are skinny too, with my favourite Unders on a low line barely staggering to 1.85.

Instead, I'm going to invest in the impossible; Zach McAllister has nice numbers, has pitched well against the Indians, and if he can get some run support might just sneak past Verlander who doesn't enjoy Progressive Field.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.55