orioles

Washington @ San Francisco

Lincecum has had a horrible season, but the ship has righted itself a little recently and although the Nats have hit him hard this year, it was long enough ago not to be too terrifying.

Strasburg is likely making one of his final starts of the season this afternoon, but he has been consistently strong and there's little sign of him tiring, it's just very careful rehab after coming back from TJ surgery.

Whenever the total is this low, I look for Unders unless there's some overpowering reason not to: there isn't.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.00

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 89-78 (+22.74)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Rangers @ Yankees

I'm going to take the Under here. Kuroda has been strong of late and if Harrison can keep it in the ballpark (the Yankees are hitting lefties 70 points lower than right handed pitchers) Jeff Kellog and the weather can do the rest.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.00


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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 88-78 (+21.74)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Washington @ Arizona

The Nats are on an eight game win streak and Ross Detwiler is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA over his last two matchups with the Diamondbacks.

Patrick Corbin has done well since coming back up, but Washington are hitting lefties at an eye-watering .425 L5 with a .465 OBP and the NL East leaders must be the value.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.20

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 88-77 (+22.74)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Yanks @ Toronto

This looks like a solid Overs bet with two pitchers with very ropey numbers L3 (Nova 1.96/10.57; Laffey 1.59/8.27 WHIP/ERA) at Rogers Centre. 9.5 is high, but the Yankees are hitting the ball hard enough to cover all on their own.

Nova's numbers are frightening, but are slightly better on the road and I'll take the bombers on the run line too.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 1.91
Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 2.05

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 87-76 (+22.69)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Kansas @ Baltimore

Gonzalez is an exciting prospect, but his numbers at home are poor. I'll bet the Royals' streak.

Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.1

Cincinnati @ Cubs

The Reds can't be backed at 1.74 on a five game losing streak with Homer Bailey on the mound. The Cubs have been strong at home, so I'll take the price on the dog.

Pick: Chicago Cubs @ 2.3

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 87-74 (+24.69)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Angels @ Oakland

'Beginning the 2012 season at Double-A Midland, Straily has been pitching out of his mind. In 14 starts spanning 85.1 innings, he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while registering an 11.39 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9. His overall dominance led to a promotion to Triple-A Sacramento in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where it’s been more of the same: 1.36 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 11.38 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9 in 53 innings.

Straily’s overwhelming success isn’t a product of luck. Rather, he possesses an arsenal of three above-average to plus offerings that are commanded with near precision.' Mike Rosenbaum on August 3, 2012 - Bleacher Report

You can have him as a home dog at 2.28 against Zack Greinke who has hit a rough patch - 1.43/5.14 WHIP/ERA L3.

Straily must be the bet.

Pick: Oakland A's @ 2.28

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 86-74 (+23.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Texas @ Bawstan

Dempster got bent over in his first start after arriving at the Rangers, but he's a better pitcher than that and he's certainly having a better season than Lester who is really struggling.

Texas are the value.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 2.00

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 85-74 (+22.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Milwaukee @ St Louis

The Brewers are stinking it up on the road and are hitting .228 on the season away from Miller Park; Marco Estrada just stinks.

The Cards are pushing for the wildcard; Lohse has been solid and is really tough at home.

St Louis have scored 37 runs L5 and are hitting .290 vs righties (this lineup is hitting Estrada at a .327 clip) and plated six runs or more in six of their last eight at Busch Stadium.

I'll give the runs.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.25

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 84-74 (+21.16)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Two solid pitchers L3 and a Reds' bullpen that is aces.

I'll take Under here.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.91