orioles

Mets at St Louis

The Mets are poor, but R A Dickey has been outstanding this season. His numbers L3 are red hot and with him available at odds against, the Mets must be the bet.

Pick: New York Mets @ 2.27

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 91-88 (+14.99)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Philadelphia @ Cincinnati

The Reds are rolling with a nice lead on top of the NL Central and Cueto is pitching beautifully; the Phillies are eight back in the Wild Card race and Tyler Cloyd isn't going to terrify anyone into submission.

Give the runs.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ 2.10

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 91-87 (+15.99)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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San Francisco @ Cubbies

I've have delivered detailed lectures on the mathematical logic behind betting heavy road favourites on the runline and in this case, with Chris Volstad rocking a 6.20 ERA at home and Madison Bumgarner 0.90/1.93 WHIP/ERA L3, I'll go even further and give two runs to turn the streaking Giants into a better than Evens dog.

Gulp.

Pick: San Francisco Giants -2 @ 2.05

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 91-86 (+16.99)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Mets @ Philadelphia

I'm on the kind of run that is usually reserved for my team (but not this year, baby!) Last night, when Kelly, a ground ball pitcher par excellence, started getting outs at the warning track, the dinger over the right field wall was inevitable.

This afternoon's duo have odd, mirror image numbers; one is traditionally strong against today's opponents, but got roughed up last time out, the other has historically poor numbers against the opposition, but has been pitching well recently.

I prefer betting losing streaks than winning streaks, but I'm going to respect the Mets' form, and hope that Niese maintains his good numbers against the Phillies. I'll take the Under too, with Kendrick flashing some form.

Pick: New York Mets @ 1.95
Pick: Under 8.0 @ 2.05

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 90-85 (+16.94)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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St Louis @ Pittsburgh

In the last 10 days, these two teams have gone in opposite directions. The Pirates have dropped six of eight while the Cardinals have won six of eight. Losing Molina is a blow, but I like Kelly and Wandy Rodriguez has been decidedly underwhelming since his move from the 'stros.

The road dog look the value.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.01


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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 90-84 (+17.94)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Toronto @ Yankees

Both pitchers have been solid L3, and with Sabathia traditionally strong against the Blue Jays and Happ seemingly settled at his new club and neither lineup hitting lefties L5, I like the Unders here. It's a touch skinny, but looks the bet.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ 1.87

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 90-83 (+18.94)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Colorado @ Cubbies

You drop out of the post-season picture and it's rookies, innings limits and shutdown vets. Colorado seem to have more people injured than fit, but they've put together a nice win streak with some of their young guys putting up nice numbers.

Neither pitcher fills me with that lovin' feelin', so I've got to take the price on the road dog with teams who have opposite qualifying streaks.

Bear in mind, if the wind is out at Wrigley, bet the Over, so check the weather before the first pitch.

Pick: Colorado Rockies @ 2.41

Toronto @ Detroit

Difficult to find any value in this game, but a little digging through the pitchers' splits and a glance at the hitting records L5 reveal that Happ can give up runs early (not a huge shock, most pitcher's stats are loaded that way) and Toronto are hitting just .188.

The handicap price is still far too skinny at 1.7+, so I'll reluctantly bet the 5 inning handicap.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (5 innings) @ 1.95

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 90-81 (+20.94)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Boston @ Yankees

Hiroki Kuroda has been solid this season and has spectacular numbers L3. Josh Beckett, on the other hand, has struggled and has a 1.62/10.38 WHIP/ERA line L3.

The home team are hitting righties hard and although Beckett has pitched well at Yankee stadium, I think he could get some stick tonight.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 2.20
Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.90

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 89-80 (+20.74)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

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Texas @ Yankees

The bombers seem to have the sign over the Rangers at the moment and Garcia has done well against them recently, making the price on offer for a home win worth taking; he hasn't lost to Texas since 2004, going 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in six starts.

Scott Feldman's numbers L3 aren't bad, and he has been strong since halfway, but this Yankee lineup is hitting .285 against him and I just have a feeling the home team have some momentum going.

With the Texas bats cooling (.247 L5 vs righties) and the Yankees heating up (.358) I going on tilt after a disappointing early game. This is a greedy bet.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 2.70