orioles

After Zito made me look a complete charlie, this series has twitched back into life like the monster in a lightning storm ... it's ALIVE!

That said, this pick looks pretty straightforward; if you offer me 2.20 on Chris Carpenter in October, I'll take it. If you offer me Under 6.5 with Vogelsong up against Carpenter in October, in a do or die game, in 46 degrees, at AT&T, at that price ... I'll take that too.

Enjoy.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.20
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.20

Phew, I'm stinking it up

I really like the Pats in this one, even giving up double-digits.

If the Pats stop the run (Shonn Greene!) then the Jets have to win it on Sanchez's arm and that shouldn't happen, even with the New England secondary, with a receiving corps like New York brings to town.

Conversely, the Pats have too many weapons for the visitors to cope, because although that secondary is playing well, they can be attacked. Added to which, the New England RBBC is working well and New York are soft against the run.

New England have a point to prove after Seattle and the subsequent press.

Pick: New England Patriots -10.5 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD The Gronk @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 2.75

Two defenses that are banged up, but my take is that the loss of Brian Cushing and injury to Johnathan Joseph are actually bigger blows than the loss of Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb. Both secondaries are vulnerable and the loss of key linebackers will mean that whoever copes best with the opposition's formidable rushing attack will be less prone to suffer through the air.

This particularly applies to the Ravens, who are much less potent when Ray Rice is forced into pass protection (Haloti Ngata's injury plays here too) and it's vital that Baltimore finds a way to limit Arian Foster, as Schaub will have too much time to find Andre Johnson.

As I say, it may be the Texans who actually feel the injuries most: Flacco needs to show he's an elite QB against a defense that got murdered last week and would've suffered the week before had the Jets not dropped key passes. Baltimore should pound the rock to keep Houston honest and then pick on that secondary and get Rice catching out of the backfield.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +7 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 7.00
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 2.1

I don't like betting Overs, really. It tends to be a mug bet: punters like it and it tends to make the books a few quid ... so I'm going Over

The price on SF is tempting, but they look done and I suspect if they are to win tonight, it'll be a long night for the bullpen. As it is, Zito's numbers are shaky (1.64/4.30 WHIP/ERA) and Lynn's aren't any better (1.31/5.06)

Neither team is hitting the cover off it, but let's hope it's a slugfest that carries the Cards to the WS.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.87

The Seahawks have had a brutal schedule, with five games in twenty four days and they're coming into San Francisco off three days' rest.

Russell Wilson had a career day last week but that may work against him here, as I expect the 49ers to send everyone after him and trust NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis to stifle Marshawn Lynch.

I ripped Alex Smith early in the season and he made me look foolish, but he was awful last week and his team got humped. Presumably, San Francisco will try to establish the run in order to tighten up their game, but Seattle have been tough against the run. Joe Staley missing could be a big problem if they can't get the ground game going, or fall behind and need Smith to throw a lot - the 49ers need to get out quickly: something to watch in-running.

The Seahawks had an adrenalin charged, highly emotional game against the Patriots and now they have to get up again quickly at the end of a gruelling three weeks - it may just be too much with the home team looking to expunge the horror result against the Giants.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ 1.83*

Pick: 1st TD Vernon Davis @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Marshawn Lynch @ 2.20

*this is out from -7.5 and I don't like the move - I'd leave this bet alone.

I'm going to take a little Overs here.

Lincecum has had a poor season, with an ERA north of six on the road. Similarly, Wainwright has been inconsistent in his return from TJ surgery and got lit up lto.

The umpire at home and the weather/stadium don't play against, so I'll take on the line.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2.00

See below - there's some 1.8 around.

CC Sabathia has been strong at Comerica this season, putting in three QS L3 and winning them all, but the Yankees still aren't hitting and he got 27 runs of support in those games .

Detroit's problem is the back of their 'pen and if the Yankees can get any runs home, or even keep it to a one run game, they can extend the series - look for a little interest in-running late if it is tight.

However, all the momentum is with the home side who'll want to finish things tonight, so I'm going Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.83

Yankees @ Detroit

After three weeks following the Orioles in Texas, Baltimore and New York, I'm back to try and recoup the cost of the trip!

The Bombers are in a terrible slump: Jeter has broken his ankle, the lineup is hitting like their sight is impaired (.180 L5) and now they have to deal with Verlander (0.78/0.39 WHIP/ERA L3)

I would generally never advise taking a price this short, but this really should be an easy way to earn 55%+ on your money.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.57

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Season Preview Results

From six months ago ...

MLB 2012 Season Preview

AL East

The Yankees have improved their rotation and if it weren't for the age of the lineup, they would still remain value at odds on. Boston shipped out their GM in the wake of last year's catastrophe and threw Francona after him, and their restructuring of the back end of the pen has been blighted by Bailey’s thumb, so it may be a little soon for the new front office and manager to achieve success.

I think the value here is the Tampa Bay Rays, who are a more than live chance. Their pitching and defense is outstanding and if some of their hitters can find a little form they can go deep into the post-season

Pick: AL East Tampa Bay Rays @ 11/2; 6.5; 550 ... LOST

AL West

This is a straight race between the LA Angels and the Texas Rangers. The Oakland A's are rebuilding again and Seattle couldn't get runs after a plate of curried mussels, so we are left with the Rangers and the Angels.

Given the depth of the Texas pitching and the offence they are capable of pulling up I am going to favour them at odds against; I can't trust the Angels rotation at odds-on.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 23/20; 2.15; 115 ... LOST (by a game!)

AL Central

Detroit. Going out and getting Prince Fielder and committing that much money sends only one message and it's difficult to see anyone stopping the Tigers from taking the title in this otherwise weak division. The price is too short for my tastes, but it should provide a relatively certain 27% on your money.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 27/100; 1.27; 127 ... WON

NL East

The Mets are horrible, the Marlins lack depth on the mound (although they boast a significant offense) as do the Nationals and the Phillies may struggle on offense like they did last year down the stretch; even with that great rotation they look too short.

I'm going to take a punt here and take the Braves. Make no mistake, this is a real punt and I wouldn't advise a heavy bet, however Atlanta have the potential to click on offense and if key members of the rotation return successfully from injury, they could be value at the price.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 7/1; 8.00; 700 ... LOST (I loved this bet and they just came up short)

NL West

It's the Giants and the Diamondbacks in the market and it's difficult to disagree with the money, but of the two I favour the Giants. The return of Posey and Melky Cabrera coming to the Bay should re-energise the offence and their pitching remains stellar. Arizona on the other hand will need their pitchers to exceed themselves to mount a serious challenge.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 13/8; 2.63; 163 ... WON

NL Central

Adding Latos into the mix and the Reds are as potent a mixture on the mound and through the lineup (especially in such a hitter friendly park) as any in baseball. Madson going down is a worry, but Sean Marshall can get it done. With the loss of Pujols and Fielder in the NL Central it makes the Reds more than ever ‘the team most likely’. They’ve signalled their intent by giving Votto a pile of money and throw in rookies like Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco and Cincinnati look the bet.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds @ 8/5; 2.60; 160 ... WON

Beyond that?

AL Pennant: Tampa Bay Bays @ 14/1; 15; 1400 ... LOST
NL Pennant: San Francisco Giants @ 10/1; 11; 1000 ... Tied 1-1

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays @ 25/1; 26; 2500 ... LOST

The Dallas pass rush will make Cutler's life hell tonight, particularly if Forte doesn't play. With no outlet (Bush is banged up too) the Bears will find it difficult to move the ball consistently and Rob Ryan must be rubbing his hands.

Much the same can be said of the Dallas offense. They have terrible problems at center and Tyron Smith and Doug Free are struggling. The Bears front seven is brutal and Romo will need his receivers to find space against a secondary that is performing well. Demarco Murray looks like a bust, and Witten can't catch. There could be a lot of sacks in this game.

A tough pick, but I'll just favour the home team.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 @ 1.95
Pick: Under 41.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 5.5 @ 2.05 (This looks like the best bet tonight)

Pick: 1st TD Miles Austin @ 9.0
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 2.4