orioles

I like young pitchers up against lineups for the first time (preferably hard throwing lefties) but Brandon Maurer is a weird call-up - he had a great Spring, but really has come out of nowhere to take the mound in the bigs - effectively straight out of double A ball.

A.J. Griffin had a promising rookie season that tapered off badly and I have a feeling batters have read the book.

I'll take a little Overs.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.00

The Angels' high priced hitters are ice cold; but that kind of talent doesn't stay silent for long and Blanton has had some success against the Reds, making LAA a value dog.

Pick: LA Angels @ 2.07

5-2 (+2.96)

The Yankees owned Clay Buchholz last year. In contrast, Hiroki Kuroda was strong against the Red Sox, particularly at Yankee Stadium. However, it's a different world in the Bronx these days and a downbeat ball club.

I'll take Buchholz to carry his Spring form into this game and defy history.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 2.05

4-2 (+1.91)

Although Philip Humber has had a decent Spring and has the stuff occasionally, I like Texas here. Both hurlers found themselves in the bullpen at some point in 2012, although for slightly different reasons. Ogando was significantly stronger in April last term and should dominate.

The price on the moneyline is too skinny, so as Texas are on the road, I'll take a punt on the runline.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 1.95

3-2 (+0.96)

Betting the dog is the way to go with baseball, but occasionally it's difficult to make a case - even for a lawyer!

David Price is a shut down pitcher going 20-5, 2.56 ERA in 2012. Maybe he was weaker at home? Nope. Maybe the Orioles knocked him around? Nope, 0.81/0.40 WHIP/ERA!

I don't like the runline at home; Hammel has ropey figures indoors, but it's a tiny sample size and nothing at the Trop.

In all honesty, this isn't a game I'd get involved in, but if I must, I'll take the Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.83

3-1 (+1.96)

The Braves have rebuilt their outfield and have had a hard-hitting Spring.

The problem for them tonight is Cole Hamels' arm. However, Hamels will need to be on it in this one, with an awful defence behind him and an outing at Turner Field, where he went 0-1 with an ERA north of 4.00 last year, putting him under the gun.

The Braves may need that deep bullpen, but I'll take a small interest on the home team.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 1.96

1-1 (0pts)

Two pitchers who ranked 2nd and 3rd in Jeff Sagarin's NL ratings last year.

Kershaw went 2-3 with a 1.62 ERA in five starts against San Francisco last season, whereas Matt Cain posted a 2.25 ERA at Dodger Stadium.

It's a clash of NL West titans, but I like low lines.

Go Under.

Pick: Under 6 @ 2.00

A good start! I also benched Norris in one of my fantasy team lol

Two teams who had a rough time last year and are not looking like the powerhouses they usually are in the AL East - I've even taken a little interest in the Orioles to win.

The Yankees are dealing with injuries (even CC has had a procedure) while the Bosox have shipped out some of their expensive, under-performing talent.

Lester was disappointing last year, but has fared well enough against the Yankees on their home turf. Sabathia has had a choppy pre-season and the bombers may not put together enough offense.

Boston are the value.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 2.00

0-1 (-1pt)

I won't go over the situations, systems, rules and stats that dictate certain bets this year - hopefully, you know them all by now. You'll be able to recognise when one of them is in play by how short the write-up is ... like tonight!

As usual, I'll try to pick all the live games available in the UK.

Have a great season ... PLAY BALL!

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Houston are rebuilding (there are malicious whispers of playing to lose) and while Texas are too, and may have a little less pop, I like the road team on the runline for the opener.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 2.05

The pick is San Francisco.

The Ravens have hit their straps at just the right time and the occasionally frustrating Joe Flacco has become the pocket passer par excellence – 8TDs, no picks. That form has been down to the protection Flacco has been afforded by his offensive line, and the 49ers will need to find a way to get pressure on the Ravens’ QB; the worry here is that Justin Smith and Aldon Smith haven’t shown much recently. Despite having a premium back at his disposal, Jim Caldwell must know that letting Flacco throw against the 49ers’ weakest defensive element, their secondary, is Baltimore’s best chance.

Pistol packing Colin Kaepernick. The knock is that he lacks Flacco’s experience and will fold in the big game, but I can’t see it. Atlanta challenged him to throw and put him in tough spots, on the road, and he came through. Frank Gore can really challenge a defense that gives up yards on the ground and the read option means that a stretched run defense will have just too much to think about. If the 49ers’ defense throw in the stops they’re capable of, San Francisco will be Super Bowl champs.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Dennis Pitta @ 2.63; Anquan Boldin @ 2.5
Pick: MVP Colin Kaepernick @ 2.5; Michael Crabtree @ 32


The Super Bowl is a prop bettor’s paradise, so apart from the pick against the spread, I’ve included some other bets I like here. They’re taken from B365:

Colin Kaepernick  - Rush Yards

Kaepernick has gone over  50 rushing yards in just three of his starts and the Ravens will be keen to bottle him up.

Under 45.5 @ 1.95

Bernard Pierce/LaMichael James – Rushing yardage.

Pierce has 169 yards on 27 carries during the postseason, averaging 6.3 YPC. It’ll be tough going, but he’ll be relevant tonight and can break off a run. James isn’t yet fully part of the offensive scheme.

Pick: Pierce -9.5 @ 2.30

Justin Tucker/David Akers – Kicking Points

Tucker has been money and has a good leg; the Ravens may stall.

Pick: Justin Tucker @ 1.90

Torrey Smith – Longest Reception

He is the deepest of deep threats. The 49ers will have him in mind all game, but Flacco can hit him.

Pick: Over 28.5 @ 1.83

Anquan Boldin –  Receptions

The deep threat of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones could see the 49ers’ safeties leaving room underneath. Boldin is seeing the targets, and if he draws Carlos Rogers he can bring this in.

Pick: Over 5 @ 1.90

Ray Rice – Receptions

He may find it difficult to put up monster numbers rushing, but he also has a crucial role as an outlet for Flacco. If the pressure comes, Ray Rice could see the ball dumped off to him.

Pick: Over 3.5 @ 2.30

Justin Tucker – Kicking Points

(See above)

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.90

LaMichael James – Longest Rush

(See above)

Pick: Under 10.5 @ 1.95

Team to score the longest TD

Baltimore will take the shots.

Pick: Baltimore @ 1.86

Longest Field Goal

Pick: Over 45.5 @ 1.80