orioles

CC Sabathia is 3-8 in 18 starts against the Rays and 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA in his previous eight at the Trop. Matt Moore has been strong L3, but has had problems with the Yankees: 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in four starts.

The Tampa Bay bats are red hot and the Yankees, even with their fitness problems, are hitting .273, so I'm going Over here.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2

15-15 (+0.21)

Jake Westbrook, in a contract year, hasn't allowed an earned run this season, but he was on the hook for four against Pittsburgh on Tuesday until the weather saved his stat line.

The home team are scuffling at the plate, and it would be nice to see Ryan Howard in the lineup.

I'm going with the pitchers' historic lines here against the opponents. Westbrook is 2-1 with a 4.39 ERA in five career starts versus Philadelphia; Kendrick is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA against St. Louis.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies @ 2

14-15 (-0.79)

Adam Wainwright is in outstanding form and has fared well against the Phillies - 1-0/0.90 ERA L3. Cole Hamels has had a difficult start, but may have sorted out those early problems.

Even so, with Wainwright on the mound and a streak playing against the home team, I'll take the price.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.05

13-15 (-1.84)

A streak plays here, as does Gallardo's record against the Giants. In six starts against San Francisco since 2009, the right-hander is 4-2 with a 1.91 ERA - tied for his lowest ERA against any team.

Contrast Matt Cain, whose 5.56 ERA in five starts at Miller Park is his second-worst at any NL ballpark. (CBS Sports)

The Brewers' win streak and those pitcher numbers make Milwaukee the value at better than Evens.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ 2.04

12-15 (-2.86)

Mike Leake has been hit hard by the Phillies (0-3 with a 9.33 ERA in five career starts) and has started the season poorly. In contrast, John Lannan is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in four starts against the Reds and has been solid - he must be the value here.

Both teams are struggling to hit and although Great American Ball Park is generally regarded as a hitter friendly park, I'll go Under too.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.2
Pick: Under 8.5 @ 2.1

12-13 (-0.86)

Oakland own the Astros, but the price is too short.

Bud Norris has the stuff (although it's not always obvious) and so with Houston ice-cold at the plate, I'll go Under at the Coliseum.

Under 8 @ 1.91

12-12 (+0.14)

Oh dear. ALWAYS CHECK THE WEATHER AT GAME TIME. Otherwise you'll look as daft as me. Apologies

(By the way, I always bet these picks, so I'm paying the price)

God that was a horrible bet O's/Yanks last night. As the weather changed, I hope no-one was on.

This one is a little more clear cut; Cliff Lee is rolling and the Phillies are too, whereas the Reds are stuttering.

Lee enjoys Cincinnati (3-0/1.67 ERA L4) Bronson Arroyo has been knocked about by the Phillies (1-6/8.50 ERA L7).

1.84 is a decent enough price, but I might get a bit greedy here and turn Philadelphia into a road dog on the runline.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 @ 2.4

12-11 (+1.14)

Neither of these pitchers inspires and with tonight's teams sitting at eight and nine in total runs in the majors and the wind out at Yankee Stadium, I'm going for my least favourite bet in baseball and going Over - but check the weather at first pitch.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.05

The streaking Rockies have hit Clayton Richard hard recently (1-3 with a 7.29 ERA L6) making them the value here.

Pick: Colorado Rockies @ 1.9

11-10 (+1.24)

I like the home streak, but Verlander has blistering numbers against the A's. Similarly, Brett Anderson is 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in his last four games against the Tigers.

Verlander seems to have got rid of the off-season cobwebs and Anderson has been strong so far. I'm looking Under and the A's; but both prices are skinny at best price 1.83 and 2.17 respectively.

I'm not taking Verlander on at that price; I think the value is actually the shorter, Unders bet.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.83