orioles

These two teams are hitting the ball hard L5 and Hernandez looks vulnerable. Although Santana has been strong L3, his numbers suggest he could give up enough to just about land the Overs.

Kansas should take this, they're too short on the moneyline and the runline has killed me this season, so although I'm tempted, I'm not taking the home team.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.95 PPD

20-23 (-2.42)

I like Washington and the Unders here.

The Nats are on a three game skid and are hitting just .213 L5. The Braves aren't exactly hitting the cover off it either, hitting .230 L5.

Jordan Zimmerman has been particularly strong L3 and while Malholm has the stuff, he got clattered by the Tigers, lasting only 3.2 innings last time out (and he took the loss in the game before against the Pirates) and I think Washington look a value dog.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.25
Pick: Under 7 @ 1.87

18-23 (-4.54)

My bookie is sending me postcards from the Caribbean where he now lives off the proceeds of these rotten tips!

The Brewers own the Pirates at Miller Park and it's difficult to see that changing with the less than inspiring Jeanmar Gomez coming out of the bullpen to replace Sanchez. Gomez has an ERA north of 5 in the majors.

Hiram Burgos looks ok so far in his debut season and should have enough here. I fancy Milwaukee to continue hitting Pittsburgh hard as they try to sweep the Pirates this afternoon, and with neither bullpen pitching well, there should be runs.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ 2.5
Pick: Over 9.5 @ 2

17-22 (-4.54)

These teams are streaking in opposite directions. Jon Lester is 4-0, 2.27 ERA on the season and 12-7, 3.67 ERA lifetime against Toronto. Brandon Morrow is 0-2, 5.27 ERA and 1-3, 8.28 ERA against Boston over his career.

The Blue Jays' bats are ice cold hitting .227. The 1.84 on the Red Sox looks cracking value, but I'm desperate ...

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.4

17-21 (-3.54)

Strasburg has been unlucky this season, pitching well enough, but not getting any run support. Worryingly, he has traditionally struggled in Atlanta and Teheran was strong last time out in Colorado.

However, looking at Jeff Sagarin's NPERA we see Strasburg at 2.86 and Teheran at 6.27. Teheran also gave up five runs in 5IP in his only home start this year. The Braves are on a four game slide, so I'll take some of the 2.4 on offer for the Nats on the runline.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 @ 2.4

17-20(-2.54)

Bronson Arroyo has a decent record against the Nats in Washington (his last four starts there have been QS) and he has pitched well L3. Gio Gonzalez has sketchy numbers L3 (1.79/8.35 WHIP/ERA)

A streak plays against the home team too, making the Reds the value.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds @ 2.24

17-19 (-1.54)

Last night was a heart breaker. I liked that bet a lot and to see a two-out single in the ninth off closer Brandon League blow the game was very frustrating. The grand salami was the cherry on the parfait.

This game is an Unders call with Verlander and Shields taking the mound.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2

17-18 (-0.54)

To describe Matt Harvey as a phenom is to understate the impact of the young right hander - he appears to be unstoppable. He fits my profile of pitchers who must be backed, except for two criteria; the price is too short and he's a righty.

The Dodgers have won a couple coming into tonight and put up some runs. The Mets' bullpen is horrible at the moment and if Ted Lilly can keep the Dodgers in this one (his numbers against the Mets are good enough) then the price for the visitors is too good to resist.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2.5

17-17 (+0.46)

I'm tempted by the Unders here, with Jose Quintana pitching so well and the White Sox hitting so poorly - they're batting .161 (including 0 for 10 RISP) on a four game losing streak.

With a qualifying streak also playing for the Indians and Zach McAllister's numbers against the home team (2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four starts) it's time to double down.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.25
Pick: Under 7 @ 2.2

16-16 (+0.26)

That Overs bet was a choker: I'd already spent the £2!

This game is an interesting one; Detwiler is pitching really well at the back end of the Nats' rotation and tonight he takes on the Cards' ace who has traditionally struggled at Nationals Park. Wainright has a 14.40 ERA in Washington.

Detwiler's biggest problem may be a lack of run support, as Washington are struggling to plate runs.

With this in mind, and with Detwiler's form hopefully holding the St. Louis' bats in check, I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 2.05

15-16 (-0.79)