orioles

Juan Nicasio will be lucky to keep his place in the Rockies' rotation at this rate. He's got a murderous WHIP and is putting too many on. Nicasio also tends not to go deep into games and the Colorado bullpen has some ugly numbers.

Homer Bailey has much better stuff and the Reds' starting pitching has been stellar of late, so there's some nice momentum on the hill. Interestingly though, his numbers against the Rockies at Great American Ballpark are 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in three starts.

Both these teams can hit (they're both in the top ten for runs scored) and I've a feeling one of these pitchers might get hit hard tonight. I'll take some Overs.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.05

32-35 (-4.22)

A difficult game to pick; the Tribe don't enjoy the Bronx and although Masterson has excellent numbers against the bombers, he's not done well in Yankee Stadium and Cleveland's bats are hitting just 0.92 against left handed pitching.

Also, Pettitte has good numbers against tonight's opposition and has dominated Cleveland recently.

However, I'm going to take the road dog here, because the Yankees have lost seven of their last eight, they can't seem to get any offense going (they're hitting .192 L5 against righties) and I don't like backing pitchers coming off the DL, particularly at 40 years of age!

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.02

32-34 (-3.22)

Yu Darvish should dominate here; he's been mowing down batters recently and, were it not for a sudden willingness to give up the long ball, his numbers would be even better. As it is, he has a sub 1.0 WHIP and an ERA hovering just over three.

Santana does not enjoy the Rangers, or Arlington. He's 13-11 with a 6.04 ERA in 27 career starts against Texas, and has a 7.47 ERA in 16 career outings in Arlington.

Not my favourite bet, but I'll give the runs at home.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 2.00

31-34 (-4.22)

Shields has the stuff, ranking 10 with Sagarin, but the Royals stink, hitting just .226 L5 and going 1-9 L10.

Nick Tepesch had a rocky start, but has been solid L3.

It's difficult to see any value in the win market, but I like the Unders here with Shields on the hill and Kansas swinging a cold stick.

Pick: Under 9 @ 1.91

Apologies for the absence and thank you for the messages begging for my return!

These teams are heading in different direction L10 and the Rays are hitting .284 L5, compared to the Indians' .205.

Archer has been called up with numbers that don't exactly thrill me, but the Tribe's anaemic bats should help. Jimenez had a decent outing in his last game, but he's 1-3 at home with a 10.45 ERA.

Tampa Bay are the value.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.1

30-33 (-4.13)

Two qualifying streaks going in opposite directions, one hurler with much better numbers and the Chisox are hitting righties at .306, while the halos are hitting just .160 against lefties.

Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ 2.55

30-32 (-3.13)

Matt Harvey has been tearing it up; Edwin Jackson has not, and he sports an ERA of 9.0 at Wrigley.

Harvey's only worry should be run support (the Mets are hitting .178 L5 against righties) but hopefully Jackson's .210 WHIP at home will put enough runners on and the slumping bats showed some life last time out..

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 @ 2.3

30-31 (-2.13)

Apologies for the absence - at least it's probably saved you a couple of quid!

I like the Overs here. Felix Doubront has been knocked about recently (1.71/5.63 WHIP/ERA L3) and Alex Cobb hasn't fared any better, giving up too many home runs (1.53/5.29)

The Trop is good for just over 9 runs a game.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.0

30-30 (-1.13)

Jason Marquis is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA L3, and although he has been hammered by the O's in the past, it was a long time ago.

Freddie Garcia has kept his head above water, but he's prone to the long ball. Thankfully, the Padres are swinging a matchstick at the plate, hitting .184 L5 (.206 vs righties) so even if someone does go yard, hopefully no-one will be on.

Last line up at 9 I took on was smashed inside two innings, but I'll go again.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.05

29-30 (-0.13)

I like the Brewers here, in what promises to be a close game.

Lohse has been unfortunate this season, with a lack of offense skewing his win/loss line, but he is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts against Pittsburgh: 9-2, 3.42 ERA lifetime.

Jeff Locke has pitched well so far, but is serving up too many base on balls to continue to get away with it. The Brewers are hitting lefties at a .290 clip L5 and with The Hebrew Hammer looking like he'll be back in the lineup, I'll take the favourite.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ 1.83

29-29 (+0.87)