orioles

The Bills' defense should be the difference in this pick 'em after their humiliation against the Pats.

Suh will be a problem against a Buffalo interior that isn't exactly giving their QB an armchair ride, but beyond that the fins' D hasn't shown up.

Tannehill will try to exploit the Bills D with short and intermediate passes over the top the way Brady did last week, but Tannehill's O line will have problems against the Bills' front seven and they won't afford him as much time as cheatin' Tom got.

Pick: Buffalo Bills @ 2.2

Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.5

Panthers
Texans
Patriots
Cardinals
Seahawks
Packers

@ 3.9

This football season is getting depressing on both sides of the pond.

Brees is gone, and the Saints' secondary is gimpy too. Laying nine points is crazy, but I'm desperate!

Pick: Carolina Panthers -9 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.2

Washington are going to run all night - partly because they've discovered a helluva run game (Bill Callahan, big surprise) and partly to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins's hands. Both Morris and discovery of the year so far Jones can put up big numbers against a soft Giants D line. Garçon will get looks, as will Reed close in, but it's likely to be ground and pound on that side of the ball for the visitors.

QB worries don't just extend to Washington; Eli Manning has been generally awful. To be fair, with Cruz out, he hasn't got much to throw to, but his lack of consistency even moved Coughlin to criticism this week. Washington are decent up front and with the Giants' backfield not lighting it up (Vereen is operating as help with the passing game these days and getting the most touches) Manning could have problems.

To be honest this looks a trappy affair. Washington have been horrible on the road and the Giants tend to dominate them, so it's difficult to invest too heavily, but I like Washington's momentum and their game matches up nicely against a team that might struggle to move the chains.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Jones @ 2.75

The reaction to the Colts' loss and the Jets' win has actually moved the line off a key number. It won't be an easy go for the Colts, but Luck is a very different proposition to Johnny Football.

Darrelle Revis will be the usual bugbear, the Indy O line had better step up, and Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett will need to make some plays, but the home team should put up some points, then Chris Ivory will have to have a monster game (and he could!) or Fitzpatrick will need to throw to keep up which should be good news for the Colts.

Indianapolis need to win and last week's shambles should be written off. Consider this; the Colts with Luck under centre are 13-1 ATS coming off a defeat.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -6 @ 1.95

Pick: Frank Gore @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 2.1

Dallas thrive on the road as dogs ATS, but losing Bryant on offense and with players still out on defense in the teeth of this Philly O at home, with a chip on their shoulder (genius) after last week and DeMarco Murray on a mission ...

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2

Saints
Steelers
Rams
Ravens
Dolphins
Colts

@7.49

Tyrod Taylor (a player I have stashed in a few dynasty and keeper leagues because I really rate him) did ok last week in an offense that casts him as a game manager at the moment. He won't be allowed to throw much, but he still made a couple of nice passes last time out and the Pats' secondary is soft. Taylor also always carries the run threat.

The Bills have to put together a run game and the injury reports on McCoy are scary, but it looks as though he'll play. Karlos Williams out of Florida State is next off the rank and doesn't lack talent to match his bulk (hence the Fred Jackson/Bryce Brown sacrifice. The Buffalo run is going up against a frankly poor Pats' run D and Rex Ryan will pound the rock all day, the question is whether that'll produce enough points.

Brady will have a tough go today against a talented, aggressive defense and a coach who has something of a sign over the Pats. New England's young O line should struggle and Tom will need to be on his toes. The Bills will try to take away the short pass and sit on the Gronk and it's worth noting Ryan has schemed that type of defence successfully before.

However, I think there's some value with the Pats with an overreaction to the Bill's result in Week 1.

The line has flip flopped, with the Pats opening at -1.5, through a pick 'em, to now Bills -1.

I'll take the Pats SU.

Pick: New England Patriots @ 2

Pick: First TD Dion Lewis @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.62

Tough pick.

Denver can't score an offensive point and yet their defense looks brutal. Manning almost looks done, but it's impossible to rule out a guy with that much talent and but for a couple of misses he would've got on the board.

Kansas put the Texans away last week, the garbage time scores flattered Houston, but the Chiefs struggled in pass protection and Denver can swarm all over Alex Smith. Crucially, Denver were tough against the run and the Kansas offense still goes through Jamaal Charles, despite signs of life in the pass game. If the run game stutters, the Chiefs are in trouble.

I try to avoid trends in football, I don't believe they're helpful, but it should be noted that Denvers has owned Kansas City recently, even at Arrowhead and even with Tebow under center.

I have to take the points and I'll buy the half. I also like the Under.


Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95


Pick: 1st TD Travis Kelce @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

I like the Vikes here. The 49ers are on their knees and Terry Bridgewater has looked solid coming in with nice options downfield and in the backfield.

Kaepernick will be running for his life all night.

If you're up this late, make a few quid.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Kyle Rudolph @ 2.8