The much vaunted Eagles' offense has failed to find any sort of rhythm and with an already under-performing O line badly banged up, Sam Bradford (who admittedly flashed some form last week in a losing cause) may struggle again, even against a mediocre Saints defense. Really, Chip Kelly has to run the ball all day, but his reticence to do so thus far makes that unlikely. They really struggle to convert on third down and that just throttles a high tempo offense. I'm not thrilled with the atmosphere in Philly (no-one ever is!) and Kelly saying Sturgis stays on the roster just because there's nothing in the FA pool was hilarious.
Drew Brees is gimpy and not throwing the ball as deep as often as usual, and he too could have protection problems. Brees doesn't have a stellar cast downfield but they do have some speed and the Eagles' secondary struggles. Also the Saints' backs are catching and having seen Kirk Cousins dink and dunk the Eagles to death last week, I'll take the points.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +6 @ 1.95
National TV does strange things to struggling teams, but the Lions are so awful at the moment, it's hard to invest. Also, any modest success Detroit have had has been in garbage time, but Seattle don't play that way - when the opposition is on its knees and long since out of the contest, they go back and kick 'em in the teeth just for fun.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10
Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 3.75; Thomas Rawls @ 2
Arizona have set away at a gallop and Carson Palmer has looked like an elite triggerman behind what many people consider a moderate O line. It'll certainly be tested tonight by a Rams team that can't mount any offense, but is tough on defense and will blitz all night.
The Cardinal with Palmer are money at home, but this is a consecutive Divisional matchup and although everyone is smashing into the Cardinals, I have a sneaky feeling that opposing the herd with a TD on offer might be the bet.
The fly in the ointment though, is Nick Foles and the Rams offense, which has been horrible. I really wish James Bettcher wasn't on the opposite sideline, because his experience of Foles means he can make it awkward for him, and Foles had little enough to to throw to without Kenny Britt going down. There hasn't been a run game to talk of with no gaps to aim for.
Keep the bet small if you must bet this one.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1
The Bengals have got things ticking nicely on both sides of the ball. Dalton is efficient, accurate and doesn't give it away behind an O line that is keeping him very clean. The banged up Kansas secondary will face a triple threat deep from Eifert, Jones and a red hot AJ Green.
The home team's defense is similarly efficient and the front seven will give Alex Smith a tough time; more importantly, they'll make life very difficult for Jamaal Charles running, and I suspect he'll be catching out of the backfield a lot - the one aspect of the Cincinnati defense that can struggle. Still, it shouldn't be enough.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6
A defense that couldn't stop offensive leviathans like Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, up against the Fitzpatrick turnover machine who has Brian Winters at RG battling Ndamukong Suh. Add in Brent Grimes prowling downfield waiting for one of Fitz's hurried lobs in the general direction of Brandon Marshall and it shapes up like a live blooper reel.
The Jets defense is tough and Tannehill is operating behind what may be one of the worst O lines in football; he had a horrible time last week (not disguised by the garbage time numbers) and it shouldn't be any prettier this afternoon. Maybe Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews can get it done, but I doubt it.
A horrible game best watched in a post-roast beef slumber with your money safely in your pocket. Bet the defense.
These are situations I usually like - a key player goes down and the market overreacts making the team in question a value bet.
However, I'm less keen here as Roethlisberger is such a central element in Todd Haley's offense. (This may seem obvious, but generally stand-ins in football, even at QB, can maintain the plan) Michael Vick though, is off a short week and was horrible when he came in (and in New York) and it will be difficult to keep the pass happy steel wheels rollin'.
LeVeon Bell will doubtless be part of the answer, but presumably the Ravens will stack the box and force Vick to throw. That doesn't bode well.
Flacco is just as capable of picking your pocket as lining it and he'll need the reborn Steve Smith to continue to produce, as the Ravens' run game is going nowhere. The Steelers' numbers on D are impressive, but they haven't had to fight off any real offensive threats, so there may be light at the end of the 0-3 tunnel for Baltimore.
In truth, this is a game to avoid at all costs, although if you must, Maxx Williams looks an interesting bet with Gillmore out in a Baltimore O that hits TEs.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 2.05
Pick: First TD LeVeon Bell @ 6; Maxx Williams @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Maxx Williams @ 3.25
Laying 5 points at home with Rodgers? The line touched 7 on Monday!
Kansas can do some damage with Jamaal Charles, but things have to work out for him (not least a HC who doesn't feed him the ball and he should avoid fumbling the game away) and the Packers handled Marshawn Lynch.
The big worry is if the Chiefs fall behind, Alex Smith will have to throw the pill to keep up and that's a risky proposition - it's worth noting that Kansas have not thrown a TD to a wide receiver in 18 games. Travis Kelce will get looks in the Red Zone and is worth some interest to score at 2.62.
Rodgers has a depleted cast, but I've got to lay 5 at Lambeau. I like the Over too.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -5 @ 2
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91
Peyton is shot, notwithstanding an amazing second half last week and I don't like the fit with Kubiak; one prefers operating no huddle out of the shotgun and the other likes his QB under centre. Add in an O line like a sieve and getting any offense going is a worry if you're going to lay down your hard earned.
However, Matt Stafford just plain stinks. Really. Horrible. Now he's playing banged up against the only thing the Broncos bring with any consistency - a tough defense but that should be all that's required.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Ebron @ 3.4