orioles

Gawd, these geezers at NFL must 'ate Lahndahn (actually the players do hate the trip - don't believe the hype) to put up these two bleedin' awful teams.

Each side is carrying injuries and Manuel coming in for the Bills is only one of a raft that makes this pick shaky. Ordinarily, Manuel wouldn't be too much of a problem, but injuries mean he has no-one to throw to, which is a shame, because the Jags' secondary couldn't stop a crisp packet blowing downfield. Expect LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay to be the entire Bills' offense.

I like Blake Bortles, but his protection is so dreadful (he's getting sacked nearly 3 times a game) that he's often forced into errors. Buffalo don't have a great pass rush, but they'll send everyone this afternoon. There's a decent secondary for the Bills too, so they'll eat up any mistakes. With no running game to support him, Bortles will be throwing a lot under pressure.

Not a game to savour, or bet the kids' college fund.

Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 2.38

These aren't two teams that inspire confidence. Seattle have been horribly erratic and prone to blowing games late and the 49ers have just been horrible.

That said, San Francisco have shown signs of life in their last two games and Kaepernick has gone from a pick away from riding the pine, to a half decent QB. However, I don't like their injuries on either side of the ball and there's a feeling they could collapse in a heap just as easily as overcome a team that has consistently beaten them.

The Seahawks have struggled to put together any meaningful offense, largely because Marshawn Lynch has battled injury and a ropey O line and the passing game has followed him down the tubes. Again though, Lynch played a full, if underwhelming, part last week and Jimmy Graham finally flashed, so they can mount a challenge.

This is largely an instinctive bet ATS and not one I'd recommend (I'm staying away) but an interest in the Under looks more worthwhile with two teams that still haven't clicked on offense.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 @ 1.91 (it might be worth buying the half point onto a key number if you must bet ATS)
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 3

If it's MNF, it's the dog, right? Wrong.

As my reader knows, I'm fearless, so I'm taking the favourite here.

The Eagles may not be a bust after all and with Bradford settling in and the Giants' D missing some key components, and a pass rush, -3.5 at home looks value.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Zach Ertz @ 3.25

Deflategate - The Revenge

Tom and Bill will pull out all the stops against a team they've owned in the recent past, but I don't like the loss of Solder along an already beatable line and Brady's blindside is potentially opened up. Still, the Pats' offense has weapons everywhere and I expect them to pour it on.

The Colts have taken some time to get into gear, but they're showing real signs of life on the offensive side, coming off three straight divisional wins. Luck should be back, and he's back into an offense that's found some rhythm. It won't be enough to keep up, but it should be enough to take advantage of a nine point start.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.98

Pick: 1st TD LeGarrette Blount @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 3.4

Jets
Patriots
Vikings
Packers
Seahawks

@ 4

Always a tough road trip, but although Carolina haven't played a stellar lineup of opponents thus far, they are an aggressive defense looking to protect an unbeaten record.

The Seahawks haven't hit their straps on offense and the Panthers are a team that the returning Lynch has traditionally struggled against, even when fit.

Again, it'll be tight, and I can't see many points, but 7 is too much to spot the visitors.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +7 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 40.4 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 3.2

Dalton has been a revelation and the Bills have EJ Manuel under centre behind a shaky O line. McCoy looks as though he'll play, but he's very gimpy too. It's a tough call, but I'll give the points.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Giovani Bernard @ 2.88

It's Thursday: take the favourite and go Over.

Again, the broad principle is supported by the analysis. Everyone's been hanging on, waiting for the Saints to turn it around, but nothing has happened - they stink.

Julio Jones will play tonight, which adds to the Saints' woes as their D is horrible. Devonta Freeman will soften them up running and catching, allowing Ryan to take some deep shots. Drew Brees has some weapons, but his protection is non-existent and the Falcons' secondary matches up well. Mark Ingram will pound the rock, but it shouldn't be enough.

Give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Devonta Freeman @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 2.4

I ain't tellin' ya again, hoss. Take the dog on Monday Night Football!

Actually, there's a case to be made for the Steelers, who are coming off enough time to work out the many kinks in any offense with Vick throwing the ball (his legs and arm no longer compensate for the slow progressions and poor decisions) but in any case, Vick can hand it off because LeVeon Bell should wreak havoc on the ground.

The Pittsburgh defense should be on a mission after choking against the Ravens. That's good news against a ropey bolts' O line ravaged by injury. It's not fatal for San Diego, because Rivers is hot at the moment and the Steelers' secondary is ropey at best, but it'll all be on the Chargers' QB to win this and he'll be under pressure all night.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.62

Last week, I explained how a couple of principles on betting football clearly dictated the pick. Then I ignored those principles, opposed the pick ... and lost. Twice.

Well, laying 8.5 points on the road in the NFL is a recipe for disaster, but Bill and Tom are still pissed off after the deflategate nonsense, the team is rested off a bye week and bringing the juggernaut into town against a Dallas team with a rookie CB covering the Gronk, Brandon 'Bert' Weeden under centre, Dez Bryant missing and Greg Hardy on the line.

Shucks.

Pick: New England Patriots -8.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD LaGarrette Blount @ 2.2