orioles

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Chris Young (1-0, 2.31 ERA) vs. Mets LH Steven Matz (0-1, 3.72)

0-3, make of that what you will!

Both of tonight's hurlers may be on a short leash and if the managers turn to their pens, I like the Royals. In any case, the price on the Mets is poor for a pitcher of the experience and post-season record of Steve Matz.

An interesting note: Over has cashed in every game and tonight's plate umpire, Jim Wolf has called 7 Overs in the last 8.

Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.25
Pick: Over 7 @ 2

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Yordano Ventura (0-1, 5.09 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 2.77)

The Mets haven't been able to hold leads in both games, outlasted by the Royals' bullpen in the first and seeing a previously rock solid pitcher collapse in a heap in the second. To add insult to injury for the Mets, the crucial Kansas bullpen, worked hard in Game 1, got the night off in Game 2 as Cueto pitched a beauty, again against form.

It's an old maxim in baseball, that good pitching always beats good hitting, but the Mets much vaunted rotation hasn't produced and the contact hitting of the Royals and the depth and solidity of their bullpen has been too much.

Now, in what is surely a must-win third set, at home in New York, we have the Mets' fireballer, Noah Syndergaard going up against another Royals' pitcher who has been less than convincing in the post-season.

Syndergaard has been particularly strong at home and all things being equal, looks a lock. However, at the price, it's worth betting the streak, the Royals' bullpen and hitting. A small interest.

Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.4

Can I get a "WHOOP WHOOP" for the MNF pick?! A stopped clock and all that :)

This has the same feel to it, although I'm less enthusiastic, so I'll be keeping stakes modest.

Traditionally, New England kicks Miami up and down the field at Gillette Stadium (6-0 ATS), but the elevation of Dan Campbell after Joe Philbin was shown the door has completely re-energised the fins. Their balance on offense is really nice (something I always look for - a stud here and there is fine, but give me a little running and a little passing any day) and Tannehill has got the O purring. Last week against the Texans they were merciless. On the other side of the ball too, Miami have suddenly found some form and Cameron Wake is playing out of his mind, racking up 6 sacks in the last two weeks. Even Suh looks a new player in a front that looks pretty salty.

Of course, the red hot Pats' desire for revenge for Deflategate is still driving them on and the Gronk is as unstoppable as ever, so I don't see an upset SU, but again, a back door cover may be on, or Miami will keep it just close enough.

Don't go mad (New England are 8-2-2 ATS as single-digit home favourites over the past three seasons) but take the points.

Pick: Miami Dolphins +8.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.4

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Jacob deGrom (3-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Royals RH Johnny Cueto (1-1, 7.88)

Game 1 went more or less as I expected, except the Mets couldn't quite finish the job, despite leading (for the second time in the game) going into the bottom of the ninth - it was classic Royals' baseball.

Tonight's game is a less difficult pick, in as much as Jacob deGrom has been excellent in the post-season (3 road wins, 20IP, 4ER) in stark contrast to Johnny Cueto.

Terry Collins has rested deGrom to be sure that he's ready to go; again contrast Cueto, who has been ensured a home start because Ned Yost feels he may be mentally fragile. Cueto is 3-3 with a 4.07ERA at Kauffman Stadium in 6 outings.

The Royals' pen also put in a shift last night and may struggle to repeat the performance if the game goes long tonight.

If the Mets don't over press, relax and just rely on Cueto's shaky form, they can take Game 2.

Pick: New York Mets @ 1.91

I haven't been writing up the live games this season because I didn't have the time - nobody missed much, I haven't had a stellar season on the bases. However, the Fall Classic demands a little effort.

In this World Series, it's the blazing Mets' arms taking on the masters of AL small ball (a rare beast indeed) The Royals just get it done. Just to put a little meat on the bones of a fascinating contest:

The Mets have mown down batters in the post-season, striking them out at at a 30% clip, that's about 10 points above the league's regular season rate. But, the Royals' batters have only struck out 17.4% of the time (an astonishing 15% in the regular season) and are the masters of contact hitting. The Mets have got their fastballs over in the post-season at an average just topping 94mph and yet, no team hits power pitching better than the Royals. You shouldn't dismiss the Kansas bullpen either, which edges the Mets for depth - always a crucial aspect of the game.

Strap in, it's going to be a helluva ride that could go all the way to Game 7.

Pick: World Champs Kansas City Royals @ 2.05
Pick: MVP Lorenzon Cain @ 21, Daniel Murphy @ 11

Game 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Matt Harvey (2-0, 2.84 ERA) vs. Royals RH Edinson Volquez (1-2, 4.32)

Matt Harvey will be well rested here after the Mets swept into the World Series and the Royals will need all their multifaceted offense to overcome the runs that I believe Volquez will give up here. Volquez is 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets. He's also putting too many people on in the post season for my liking.

The books have a slight lean to the Mets, but you can still find Evens on offer. I'll take that price.

Pick: Mets @ 2.0

'Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand?'

Ah, Flacco, the 'cappers nightmare, rolling into town with not a lot to throw to and a defense that just lies down in the face of any passing game - not good with Carson Palmer waiting. Arizona put up huge numbers through the air and although their last game wasn't an exhibition of attacking football, they should shred the Ravens' secondary.

Giving 9.5 points on MNF is bananas though and this has back door cover written all over it.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +9.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2.1


*Someone messaged me to ask about which Picks to bet. The primary bet is always ATS (unless I advise leaving it alone) and/or the Totals. The TD markets are to keep you awake!

This is an interesting matchup. The Eagles' defense has been brutal, but Cam Newton is a different proposition and at the moment he's on fire. The Eagles take away the run game, so it'll be up to Cam to find a way to work it to an underwhelming receiving corps, outside Greg Olsen, or keep the chains moving by running himself.

Similarly, the Panthers have been putting up some good D, despite the absence of DE Charles Johnson, and Josh Norman must have looked at the game tape from Bradford's last outing and be thinking that Christmas may have come early.

If Sam Bradford throws three picks again tonight, he may be gone with the Bye week coming, but Chip Kelly will likely try to limit the opportunities for disaster by feeding DeMarco Murray, who has found some form of late, although taking Carolina on on the ground is a big ask.

There are too many imponderables here to back the teams with any great confidence ATS, but I think the Eagles probably have more options ... the problem is Sam Bradford and the price on the key number.

There is a value bet here, and it's the Under: two tough defenses and offenses with obvious limitations.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.75

Weeden is replaced by Cassell and it might just be an upgrade.

Stick a fork in the Cowboys, they're done.

Pick: New York Giants -3 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Rashad Jennings @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2

Bill and Tom just refuse to forgive and forget and today they'll force a gimpy Fitzpatrick to throw a lot - never a good thing, even with the excellent wideouts he has to aim at. To do that though, the Patriots need to contain Chris Ivory (a brute after contact) and take away Decker in the slot. A big ask.

Brady will have to combat a returning Revis, but perhaps the key matchups will be Cromartie on Gronkowski (I'm guessing that's what the Jets will do, as I can't see Davis and Pace containing the Gronk) and the Jets' LBs on runners catching out of the NE backfield, because beating the Jets on the outside is difficult. The Jets like to blitz a lot, but that opens up a vulnerability to TEs and I suspect Brady and Belichick will scheme that matchup all day.

A tough pick, I like the Jets, but the Patriots are on a mission.

Pick: New England Patriots -7.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 2

Colts
Dolphins
Pats
Rams
Falcons
Cardinals

@ 6.63