orioles

I can't see past Peyton and his aggressive defense and higher tempo offense giving less than a touchdown. Andrew Luck is banged up and error prone and TY Hilton is listed as doubtful.

Give the points.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2

Jets
Saints
Patriots
Falcons
Steelers
Broncos

@ 4.61

By the numbers the Pack stink on offense and Denver crushed them last week with an aggressive pass rush and by taking away any pass game on the outside. Carolina can be just as tough on the perimeter and and have a fine LB corps, but they need to pressure Rodgers - they'll have doubtless spent the short week poring over game tape.

Newton's arm is as patchy as ever, but he remains a running threat and add in a reborn Jonathan Stewart against a Green Bay ground defense that was torn apart by the Broncos' running game and things look ominous for the visitors, particularly with the injuries at the corners. Look for Greg Olson in the Panthers' passing game, the guy is a beast.

I'm nervous about a wounded Pack bouncing back, but I have to take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.5

Someone has asked me about my record so far.

First up, apologies for the lack of book keeping. However, I've skimmed the ATS picks and I appear to be 22-15 (59%) on the season. It was a rough start, but you shouldn't really get involved until Week 4. I'm even on the Totals and I can't be bothered to sift through the 1st/Anytime picks, but as I explained, they're not to be considered a serious bet.

The Accas have been a car crash!

The Browns are in freefall (despite a couple of offensive players showing real talent) and Johnny Football is back ... with a disgruntled left side protector and a raft of injuries on both sides of the ball.

The Bengals have been sound on offense, but Dalton freezes on national TV and they can be run on. Truth be told though, they could go over the total themselves because Cleveland's defense is wafer thin.

The thought of Laying 12 points gives me shivers, but I like the Over.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -12 @ 2
Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Cincinnati D/ST @ 3.5

Not impressed with either team ATS (another back door cover beckons) but I like the Unders. I think both defenses are capable of matching up effectively here and the weather forecast is for rain.

Leave the spread, go Under.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +5.5 @ 2
Pick: Under 46.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Tolbert @ 3.75, Cam Newton @ 2.2

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Edinson Volquez (1-2, 4.37 ERA) vs. Mets RH Matt Harvey (2-0, 3.38)

I opposed Volquez in Game 1. He pitched despite learning his father had passed away earlier that day and has been away from the team for a few days. There's no telling how he'll pitch, so I have to oppose him again, but can't have the Mets at the price.

Go Over again, it's the only value here.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2

The herd are keen on Rodgers coming into Sports Authority Field to take down the Broncos, and there's no denying Peyton Manning's terminal decline. Green Bay though (by which I mean Aaron Rodgers) haven't been clicking on offense recently and Denver boasts the defense giving up the fewest passing yards per game.

Not a game to get heavily involved in, but I have a slight lean to the home team.

Buy the half point.

Pick: Denver Broncos +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.1

The return of Ben Roethlisberger has cast the Bengals as very marginal dogs in some places, but the injury to Big Ben is a real concern, so much so that the matchup between Carlos Dunlap and Marcus Gilbert may be the key to this game. Either way, I have a feeling Pittsburgh are one hit away from Landry Jones.

Le'Veon Bell is the big offensive danger for the Bengals and they need to find a way to bottle him up, but if they can prevent him running riot and make Roethlisberger uncomfortable, they can win this.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD AJ Green @ 2

Falcons
Cardinals
Seahawks
Rams
Packers
Panthers

@ 7.65


ATS Acca

Falcons -6.5
Rams -8
Panthers -7.5

@ 7.66

Roger Goodell gets paid about $40 million a year. Think about that when you're watching the latest shovel of horse feathers the NFL is serving up in London!

This game pits patchy offenses against horrible defenses. Jim Caldwell is busy throwing his coaches under the double decker, and the Chiefs' loss of Jamaal Charles has hamstrung their attack.

On the plus side, it means Matt Stafford is now operating in an offense that better suits his skill set (throw it a long way to Megatron and hope he hauls it in) and Kansas will certainly sling it with Jeremy Maclin back and a Detroit secondary that couldn't stop me lumbering downfield, pausing only to puff on my inhaler and puke a lung.

Give the points if you must bet the spread (I won't be) and take a small interest on the Over in what could be a gloriously comical shootout.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ 2.08
Pick: Over Over 45 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Charcandrick West @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1