orioles

Panthers at Giants

Carolina giving 4.5 points here should be the bet of the season, but the banged up Panthers sound like they have their feet off the pedals and it's always dangerous backing unbeaten teams going into Metlife.

That pass rush should do it though. Small stakes.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2

Broncos at Steelers

The best game of the week has the tough Denver D facing off against Pittsburgh's purring playmakers. The problem for the Broncos is they just can't put up the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Cardinals at Eagles

The Eagles have flashed some form, but the Cardinals have too much on both sides of the ball in a game that can clinch them the Division and possibly a first round bye.

I like this bet.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3.5

Pick: 1st TD John Brown @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1

Week 15 SU Hail Mary Acca

Vikings
Pats
Chiefs
Seahawks
Steelers
Bengals
Cardinals
Saints

@ 10.67

Gawd, these games are getting worse - picking them is a coin toss and about as much fun.

Take the Buccaneers SU if you must. On a more positive note, it may be worth an interest in the Under with these two underpowered offenses.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Under 41

Pick: 1st TD Todd Gurley @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Martin @ 2

Another horrible MNF game.

Take the Fins, if you must. Oh, and sorry for that Texans pick - that's the stupidest call I've made since I said, "I do".

Pick: Miami Dolphins -1

Pick: 1st TD Jarvis Landry @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Lamar Miller @ 2

Steelers at Bengals

Big Ben is in terrific form and Pittsburgh have plenty of weapons, but the Bengals have a stout defense and a potent offense of their own. Should be a belter, but I have to give less than a field goal at home. The herd have been smashing into the total all week pushing it out to 50 (it may go higher, so hang on) and are worth opposing.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Pick: Under 49.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Tyler Eifert @ 2

Cowboys at Packers

The herd seem back in love with America's team and have clipped the spread, but I'm not so sure. Cassel flattered to deceive and the Pack will be buoyed by the 'miraculous heave' last week (cost me a bundle!)

Pick: Packers -6 (leave it late, you may find the spread moves in again as bettors look to recoup on the early games)

Pick: 1st TD Richard Rodgers @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD DeZ Bryant @ 2.5

Patriots at Texans

Hoyer is a worry - he has a deer in headlights look against well organised defenses - but with the Pats' injuries, their horrible O line and the Texans becoming relevant, I have to believe the Houston D will let them cover at home. JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney may ruin Tom Terrific's Christmas.

Pick: Houston Texans +5.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAndre Hopkins @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD LeGarrette Blount @ 2.4

Week 14 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Lions
Bucs
Jets
Chiefs
Bears
Panthers
Seahawks
Broncos
Packers
Pats

@ 24

This is an awful lot of points to give, but it's Thursday night football; give the points and take the Over. Actually, there's some logic in that tonight with the Cardinals tough on both sides of the ball and the Vikings injured and staggering over the finishing line.

Minnesota will need to throw the ball, because teams are just loading up the box to stifle Peterson and with Diggs the biggest target outside, this could get ugly for the visitors. I love David Johnson running the ball and with Larry Fitz, John Brown and Malcolm Floyd deep (hell, even rookie JJ Nelson looks good) Carson Palmer may be about to have an early Christmas.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -10.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 46.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD David Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2; Michael Floyd @ 2.7

A team seemingly happier on the road, with a solid defense, but their third body at QB, against a team that thrives at home, is soft against the run, but boasts a QB who hasn't thrown a pick on his own turf since week one.

The line opened at 4.5 and has now got Washington a 2.5 favourite. The solid Dallas secondary means this should be a small bet, but I'll ride the home form.

Pick: Washington Redskins -2.5

Pick: 1st TD Darren McFadden @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Reed @ 2.7

Seahawks at Vikings

Could be a belter, but I don't like the loss of Linval Joseph for the home team with Rawls likely to see the rock a lot. Russell Wilson might just be a pocket passer after all!

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 3

Panthers @ Saints

Carolina have too much for a New Orleans side struggling to score and missing Willie Snead nicked up.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -6.5

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Ben Watson @ 3.5

Colts at Steelers

Hasselbeck will have to throw it a ton tonight with Frank Gore struggling, but Big Ben ruined the Indy defense last year and will like repeat here.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -9

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Coby Fleener @ 4

Hail Mary SU Acca

Cardinals
Bengals
Bears
Broncos
Panthers
Patriots
Steelers
Redskins

I like Detroit here.

I'm a bit nervous of the inevitable coach bounce wearing off, but new OC Jim Bob Cooter really seems like a good fit for Stafford. The Pack have struggled on offense and their secondary looks vulnerable. The Lions' defense has played well of late, so I'll take the home dog.

Pick: Detroit Lions +2.5

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.5

Go to bed.

I wouldn't bet this pile of horse feathers if my life depended on it, but if you must, take the Browns; I prefer McCown to the clown Manziel and the Ravens are looking around for bodies to suit up - there's no-one left on the offensive side. I'm taping the game just to see what the rookie running backs will do.

Night night.

Pick: Browns -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Gary Barnidge @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Buck Allen @ 2.2

Giants at Redskins

Tough ATS pick; these two defenses stink and their QBs can be anything in any game. Traditionally the Giants own Cousins, but Washington can show some form at home to perhaps head the worst Division in football.

Oppose the herd and go Over.

Pick: Washington Redskins +2.5
Pick: Over 47

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.62

Steelers at Seahawks

Antonio Brown gets an early Christmas present and Ben's going to ping it around, but I like the dynamic Rawls on the ground and Wilson is a much better QB off the back of a strong running game.

Could be a cracker.

Pick: Seahawks -3.5

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 1.91

Patriots at Broncos

Brady is running out of bodies on offense and this Denver defense is mighty salty. Osweiler will be sorely tested by the wise old fox who enjoys getting after green QBs. Look for lots of two TE sets in a conservative home attack, but they can shade it here.

Pick: Broncos +2.5

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD James White @ 3.8