orioles

Well, my season hit the wall last round with Arizona going down to a very impressive Panthers.

The Pats' O line problems finally bit them (and me!) on the proverbial. The Denver defense were just too tough and way, way too quick for the patchwork line and even though Tom aired it out 50+ times (that's when New England wins) it was all for naught as he got the snot beaten out of him.

Carolina has a much tougher O line (they've given up two sacks in the post season) and in any case, Newton brings such a potent mix of talent he should keep the chains moving. Cam has shown he can pass and run and, in any case, there are options on the ground if the heat comes on.

Similarly, the Panthers' defense is plenty salty, especially facing the peashooter arm of Peyton Manning. Manning is averaging 5.7 yards per completion at a 55% clip and the Carolina front seven are going to be all over him. On the ground, Denver are underwhelming, with two backs who are feast or famine and will have to navigate that Panther front. I suspect the run is Denver's best shot, but they'll not carry my money.

Favourites are horrible against the spread in the Super Bowl, but Peyton and the Broncos are used to blowing this game. I have to take Carolina.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -5.5

Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.1
Pick: Super Bowl MVP Cam Newton @ 1.73
Pick: Cam Newton to perform Superman celebration Over 2.5 @ 2
Pick: Gatorade Colour dumped on winning coach Orange @ 2.5
Pick: How many times will John Elway be shown Over 2.5 @ 2

Patriots at Broncos

The herd is convinced and so am I.

Pick: New England Patriots -3

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.2

Cardinals at Panthers

The game of the season two weeks early.

The Panthers' front is tough and I suspect this will be a brutal arm wrestle in the trenches. The critical elements will be Arizona controlling the Carolina on the ground and the Panthers' secondary trying to shut down the multiple threats from the Cardinals.

I've been backing the Cardinals for a while now and I'm not turning away now. It should be a great game, but if Arizona can manoeuvre Carson Palmer into the slot, that secondary can be beaten.

Strap in.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Floyd @ 2.62

Seahawks at Panthers

The weekend's best game.

After squeaking past the Vikes, Seattle might think the Gods are smiling on them and certainly the league MVP elect, Cam Newton, seems to have feet of clay when he meets teams in the playoffs, but the Seahawks will need to be right on their game to win this one.

The problem for the road team is that they looked unconvincing on offense last week, and they might need a pissed off Lynch to spark them into life here, because I see the Panthers shading it. Cam will mix it up vertically into the redzone then punch it in on the ground.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -2.5

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.1

Steelers at Broncos

With all their playmakers out, or nearly out (Ben must be less than an Evens shot to finish if he starts) the Steelers are fatally hamstrung. Manning will throw picks, but it won't save Pittsburgh.

Pick: Denver Broncos -7.5

Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 2.2

Chiefs at Patriots

If Edelman and Gronkowski go, then the Patriots win. If they don't, fade Tom.

Pick: Patriots -5

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD James White @ 3.25

Packers at Cardinals

Washington should've finished the Packers off early (Jackson cost me a bundle win/1st TD) but blew it: the Cardinals won't be as generous.

It won't be another 30 point thrashing, so don't smash in with this many points on offer, but my Super Bowl pick rolls on.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7.5

Pick: 1st TD John Brown @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.5

Seahawks at Vikings

Russell Wilson's emergence as an elite QB has added a dimension to the Seattle offense that makes them strong contenders to go all the way.

AP will give it a go, but the brutal Seahawk defense has stifled him before and Bridgewater doesn't look like he has the arm to win this through the freezing air in Minneapolis.

The weather may level the field a little, but frankly the barometer looks like the home team's best hope.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Russell Wilson @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 2.3

Packers at Washington

Capping your own team is difficult, but Cousins gives Washington a shot here, as long as they can find a way to block up the interior on defense and stop the Pack on the ground.

These teams look as though they're heading in opposite direction; I hope that means the couch for the Pack.

Pick: Washington +1

Pick: 1st TD DeSean Jackson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Reed @ 2.4

Chiefs at Texans

Two teams that have risen Lazarus-like to make the playoffs. The Texans will hope that their aggressive pass rush can rattle Alex Smith who has looked worryingly out of form after spending most of the season as Mr Reliable.

Ironically, I think it'll be the Kansas defense and the returning Tamba Hali (questionable at time of writing) and Justin Houston who'll dominate Brian Hoyer, especially with Duane Brown gone.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3

Pick: 1st TD Spencer Ware @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6

Steelers at Bengals

McCarron, 'nuff said. Pittsburgh feast on QBs like this and the Bengals will need to put up points - it screams picks. While they'll give up a ton of yards, the Steelers will have too much on offense.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Tyler Eifert @ 2.5

The aggressive Denver front will get after McCarron who can be a little sluggish in the pocket. Neither team should be able to get a ground game going, so it'll be which of these replacement QBs can emerge from the arm wrestle intact and hit the occasional big play.

Brock Osweiler looks the QB most likely.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4

Pick: 1st TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Patriots @ Jets

A very tough call.

Gang green need to win to keep any realistic post-season hopes alive, whereas Bill and Tom need that home tie in the playoffs to rest and repair an injured team that is on its knees.

The Jets will throw everything at a Patriots' defense that has stepped up mightily and Belichick has done his usual trick of summoning up a mix of unfancied or veteran players who seem to allow the machine to roll on.

Bill gives Fitz fits and Brady will lean heavily on the Gronk (not my most surprising call!) ... the result? Pats pragmatism, just.

Pick: New England Patriots -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.38

Packers at Cardinals

I've been backing the Cardinals for a while to win it all. No reason to lose faith in this game.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5.5

Pick: 1st TD David Johnson @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD John Brown @ 2.2

Giants @ Vikings

Odell Beckham is gone and so are the Giants. The Vikings roll on.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -6.5

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Stefon Diggs @ 2.5

Week 16 Hail Mary SU Acca

Texans
Chiefs
Lions
Bills
Panthers
Steelers
Seahawks
Cardinals
Vikings

@10.41

Washington, although they don't travel well, can clinch the NFC East with a win. The Eagles look done and Cousins can take advantage of a banged up Philadelphia secondary.

3 points looks generous ... as long as DeSean Jackson plays.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.3

The Lions are horrible on the road, horrible on national TV and horrible against the Saints.

New Orleans are just horrible on defense. The Saints are giving up over 30 points a game (although Dennis Allen seems to have put some fire in the stop unit's belly) and Stafford and megatron should tear this secondary apart - were it not for the fact Detroit have come up with the genius idea of ignoring Johnson for large parts of the game.

Neither team can run the ball, but both have strong passing attacks. There should be a ton of points and if I had to bet, it would be the Over.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -2.5
Pick: Over 51.5

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Golden Tate @ 2.38