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Blount is probably the key here; he sets the passing game up for Belichick and Brady and the Broncos have struggled against the run. Blount is one of those players it's difficult to trust, but the numbers tell you at the very least he's having a career season. Although Gronkowski is down, Brady still put up some great numbers against the toughest D in the league, safe for a bewildering pick.

Trevor Siemian is not a bust by any means, but he can look ineffective and while the Pats aren't a terrifying defensive challenge, they're not as bad as previously.

I'll give a field goal.

Pick: Patriots -3 @ 1.92
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