orioles

This will be an intriguing match up between the best rushing offense and the toughest run stoppers in the league. There's no doubt Elliott has taken a lot of the heat off Dak Prescott and allowed the Cowboys to control the clock. Here though, Elliott will need to do it against a front that's giving up just over 3 yards an attempt. There's nothing to say Elliott can't do it, but this should be his sternest test and if you stop him, my sense is that the Dallas offense will struggle.

The Ravens have no run game, which is a real pity because Flacco generally needs all the help he can get (he's thrown as many picks as TDs) but anyway, the Dallas run D is pretty tasty. What needs to happen is Baltimore need to attack an average, badly banged up, Cowboys secondary, but trusting Flacco (3-4 when throwing 40 or more passes this season) is a waking nightmare.

The Ravens fall behind early, they're forced to throw it all day and Dallas relax in the fourth quarter to allow a backdoor cover.

Right?

Pick: Ravens +7.5 @ 1.87 (I've bought the extra half point there, but that's awfully skinny)

29-28, +0.04