orioles

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

The Red Sox are averaging 6.7 runs, batting .315 with runners in scoring position and hitting .298 overall while belting 27 homers in their last 13. That's not good news for Niemann who, although he has been solid since coming off the DL, and is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts in July, has allowed 22 hits and four walks in 16 1/3 innings.

The big worry for Boston is Beckett's health, but he seems ready to go and is devastating on the road, having gone 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 10 starts away from Fenway.

Despite my humiliation last time, I'm going to lay the runs again tonight. Some cappers recommend you NEVER lay the runs, but with road favourites who are this hot at the plate and an opposition pitcher putting people on, as well as a road pitcher who can dominate like Beckett (this Rays' lineup is hitting a collective .236 against him) then I think it is a valid bet.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

72-67 (+6.91pts)