Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
The Brewers are rolling: until they get on the road. It's a bizarre split, and shows that they're hitting just .207 on the road against lefties, plating 1.56/9. They're 8-2 L10, a reverse of the Reds' 2-8, but Cincinnati have had a much tougher schedule over that period.
Add to this the fact that Narveson has been reached for 9 runs by the Reds earlier in the season, and Milwaukee's 1-10 record at Great American Ball Park, and you get them as a road dog tonight.
The two pitchers have done OK L3, with Narveson edging the ERA, but he has been putting more on. Neither are lock down pitchers and there's always a temptation to go Over at Great American Ball Park.
On balance, I'm going to take on the Total; I'm nervous about the Brewers' form away from Miller Park, and I don't trust either pitcher.
Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91
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2011 Season (Level Stakes)
37-35 (+3.95pts)
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