one of my favourite recent stats is paul nicholls beginners chases at worcester... 0/11 since 2003.
he is a general 35% in beginners chases. you can read that first time in a chase, second time in a chase, etc..
why worcester 0/11...
dont know but have made alot just by picking the winner of the race
today seems to be between 2 .. one of jonjos and one of newlands.
jonjo gets around 25% strike rate in beginners races but is just about as bad as nicholls here. 1/11 at worcester...
one stat to swing this in jonjos favour might be first time sent chasing in a beginners with sp 7/4 or less 9 out last 12 have won with one unseating. the other 2 beaten were beaten at 2 miles... so over 2 miles etc.. you get 9/10 with an un seat.
dr newlands horses are in form... 112/4 in last 2 weeks but his 0/8 in beginners chases is uninspiring. the form of his horse is very similar to jonjos... daryll jacob has a decent 6/17 in chases for the doctor and has won on his last 3 chases for the yard. his record overall though is 0/10 first time sent chasing. though it has to be said that only one has been sent into a beginners.. he is a disappointing 3/39 in non hcp chases but daryll jacob is 12/2 in non hcp chases for him.
even williams horse is rated around 20lb inferior to these over hurdles and his winners in beginners chases have all been supported to some degree over the last 6 years. so i am going to let that take precedence over the stables 6/23 in beg chs at the track since 2003.
so i guess i will be watching the market closely. strong support for jonjo will sway me to chesapeake.. weakness ie over 7/4 with support from newland will sway me that way...
the last two beaten here from the nicholls yard took soft falls before halfway and i was able to green up and max the win situation for an incredibly small amount of money...