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03 Dec 22 12:47
Date Joined: 28 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 3,186 | Blogger: NonVintage's blog
The only game with a Predictor-suggested bet this week and a tricky one for me because I find myself in at least partial disagreement with my algorithmic friend.

The predicted result here is New York Jets 23-19 Minnesota Vikings. NYJ are available at close to 2.5 for this match-up, and the predictor identifies their true odds as about 1.7 making them a clear 'value' bet.

But I'm not sure. There's something about the Vikings that statistically doesn't impress the predictor, but that approach went badly last week, and for the Jets we have a back-up QB who played great last week but we've seen this kind of thing before - often the honeymoon period is very short-lived.

The Jets do have a strong defensive unit and last week showed that even with their injuries and apparent lack of offensive depth, they are capable of putting points on the board.

Meanwhile Minnesota have the winning habit (one flop against the Cowboys excepted) and even if their win record does slightly flatter them, they are clearly a good side.

But this is meant to be a cold, numbers-driven analytical approach. So - with a bit of a shrug (and not much confidence) - the selection is New York Jets to win.
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Report NonVintage December 11, 2022 2:41 PM GMT
Can't argue with that really, even though it was a loss. The Jets hadn't one but two red-zone drives in the dying minutes but Minnesota held out for the W. Bum!
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