New England Patriots -v- Minnesota Vikings (Week 12)

These are two above average teams - neither is high scoring and both are reliant on good defense to keep them competitive in games.

So far, Minnesota have won a lot of narrowish games to end up with a very impressive but perhaps unrepresentative 8-2 record. They have been effective overall, but have really maximised their ability and win conversion rate. In the last two weeks they have gone from beating Buffalo in a fantastic game (including that Justin Jefferson catch) to being utterly blown out at home by Dallas. The momentum may have swung against them and they've now conceded more points than they've scored.

New England have had various offensive issues this year, including a revolving door of banged up QBs and a general inability to move the ball down the pitch. On the flip side, their defense is now arguably the most impressive in the NFL and they have held consecutive opponents to just 3 points a piece. They managed to get the win last week in a brutal battle against the Jets, and their improving 6-4 record will be bolstering their confidence no end. For such a ground-based team, having both their decent RBs fit and in the mix is a big positive and a headache for their opponents.

The predictor has this down as New England Patriots 24-16 Minnesota Vikings, and that looks feasible enough.

As a result, with the Pats available at around 2.3, the selection is New England Patriots to win what looks like a match-up that should play to their strengths.