Patriots -v- Colts (Week 15)

I'm slightly conscious of going to the well once too often, and both teams here are playing good football at the moment, but I think we might have something to play with here.

Overall, I'm slightly surprised that Indianapolis are being made favourite. Both sides can be firmly rated in the top 10 sides this season, but the Patriots have the better record and I think two overrated factors are behind the betting: coming off a bye and home advantage. Neither makes much difference in either direction at the moment.

Jonathan Taylor is having a phenomenal year - he is almost certainly the best player on the pitch in this game - but he is one player: the Colts have managed to lose plenty of (close) games even with him in their armoury.

In terms of the match-up, these are the two NFL teams with the current best stats for converting offensive yardage into points - they get the ball and score more than they should with it. The Colts pair this up with a decent defense (10th on the same metric), but New England are the meanest defense on this measure - other teams get the ball, progress it but then don't score as many points as they ought to. The Patriots defense in their own territory has been excellent.

Over the past 5 games, Indianapolis have allowed their opponents an average of 325 yards, and 20 points per game. This is pretty good, but New England have given up just 241 yards and a measly 7.2 ppg.

The predictor has this as New England Patriots 25-19 Indianapolis Colts, and I'd be expecting quite a fun, well-contested game, with the Patriots looking good value at 2.15 (which they drifted from but are now back to).