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NonVintage
16 Dec 21 20:18
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Date Joined: 28 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 3,615 | Blogger: NonVintage's blog
I'm slightly conscious of going to the well once too often, and both teams here are playing good football at the moment, but I think we might have something to play with here.

Overall, I'm slightly surprised that Indianapolis are being made favourite. Both sides can be firmly rated in the top 10 sides this season, but the Patriots have the better record and I think two overrated factors are behind the betting: coming off a bye and home advantage. Neither makes much difference in either direction at the moment.

Jonathan Taylor is having a phenomenal year - he is almost certainly the best player on the pitch in this game - but he is one player: the Colts have managed to lose plenty of (close) games even with him in their armoury.

In terms of the match-up, these are the two NFL teams with the current best stats for converting offensive yardage into points - they get the ball and score more than they should with it. The Colts pair this up with a decent defense (10th on the same metric), but New England are the meanest defense on this measure - other teams get the ball, progress it but then don't score as many points as they ought to. The Patriots defense in their own territory has been excellent.

Over the past 5 games, Indianapolis have allowed their opponents an average of 325 yards, and 20 points per game. This is pretty good, but New England have given up just 241 yards and a measly 7.2 ppg.

The predictor has this as New England Patriots 25-19 Indianapolis Colts, and I'd be expecting quite a fun, well-contested game, with the Patriots looking good value at 2.15 (which they drifted from but are now back to).
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Report themightymac December 18, 2021 2:22 AM GMT
Should be a competitive game but I wouldn't like to try and pick the winner.
Report SlippyBlue December 18, 2021 1:03 PM GMT
2.26 now N.V. having touched a high of 2.32.
I've had a dabble so here's hoping.

Happy
Report themightymac December 18, 2021 10:33 PM GMT
Enjoy the game SB. And best of luck!
Report tobermory December 19, 2021 12:24 AM GMT
I wonder how Mac Jones will play, after he was not used last time. I know the game plan at Buffalo was universally praised, and it was probably the best way to win that game, but if Taylor gets the Colts ahead then Jones is going to have plenty to do, and perhaps that game will have lowered his belief that he is ‘that guy’,that he needs to be.
Report england_v_south_afri December 19, 2021 1:18 AM GMT
Not had a bet yet, maybe get involved in running. GL with your bets !!
Report tobermory December 19, 2021 1:48 AM GMT
Blocked punt TD puts  Colts up 14-0
Report themightymac December 19, 2021 8:53 PM GMT
Colts destroyed them for three quarters and just held on.
Report tobermory December 19, 2021 11:04 PM GMT
Yeah, looked like was gonna be a blowout, Patriots comeback was impressive, actually went up in my estimation.
Report tobermory December 19, 2021 11:04 PM GMT
Tyler Huntley doesn't seem to be any drop off from Lamar.
Report tobermory December 20, 2021 12:25 AM GMT
Huntley incredible duel with Rogers
Report tobermory December 20, 2021 12:26 AM GMT
Ravens going for 2 to take lead with 42 secs left
Report tobermory December 20, 2021 12:27 AM GMT
Failed again
Report wisewords December 20, 2021 12:28 AM GMT
exciting finish there Tobes, thought the 1.01 was going bang for a moment there
Report GoBallistic December 21, 2021 12:51 AM GMT
Good game in Cleveland. The Browns without half their roster and with Nick Mullins at QB (!) have turned the game on its head
Report wisewords December 21, 2021 12:53 AM GMT
LV were 1.15 at HT
Report wisewords December 21, 2021 12:54 AM GMT
Browns have now traded below 1.2
Report wisewords December 21, 2021 1:03 AM GMT
thrilling ending. Browns made it to 1.14 but couldn't hold on for the win. LV had to kick the FG twice, and after the initial kick they hit 1.02 before bouncing back to 1.6 before kicking it again!!
Report GoBallistic December 21, 2021 1:06 AM GMT
Kickers decided it. Carlson nailed all his in q tough conditions including the game winner at the end. The Browns kicker missed his just before half time
Report SamuelMertensBertens December 21, 2021 3:25 AM GMT
Bears are so useless.
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