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09 Dec 21 23:46
Date Joined: 28 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 3,169 | Blogger: NonVintage's blog
So... the predictor has thrown up two bets this week and, hand-on-heart, I'm not sure I genuinely fancy playing in either game. However, that's not the symbiotic deal we have, and one of the selections is a 3pt suggestion, so let's go!

In a bizarre scheduling/bye-week quirk, Cleveland face Baltimore in consecutive games. The first game was a tightish, lowish-scoring win for Baltimore at home.

Overall win record and offensive/defensive stats suggest that Baltimore are a slightly better team than Cleveland, and yet the Browns are money line favourites for this game, even though these same teams played two weeks ago with the Ravens taking the W.

Baltimore's offense is okay and their defense is quite good. They are up against a Cleveland side who have generally struggled to score points (with a couple of standout games - including a demolition of the weirdly schizophrenic Bengals and thar crazy shoot-out against the Chargers). The Browns' defense is okay but their offense a bit substandard.

New factors at play here are cornerback injuries for the Ravens and the fact that the game is in Cleveland, but home advantage appears to be counting for much less than the betting expects this year (and last), and Cleveland have struggled to put points on the board against weaker teams than Baltimore this year.

The predictor says Baltimore Ravens 23-17 Cleveland Browns, and suggests that 1.6 would be a fair price for Baltimore. They are available at 2.25+ at the moment (and drifting slightly), and even I can see this offers some value. Still not convinced though. Ha!
Pause Switch to Standard View Baltimore Ravens -v- Cleveland Browns...
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Report tobermory December 10, 2021 12:09 AM GMT
Yeah, I said on the other thread seems the stand out price. I'd have expected 1.6 ish
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 1:13 AM GMT
I thought Baltimore would be favourite too, on reputation and the Jackson wow factor. Surprised at that but having said that I think Browns will win. They are a more balanced team.
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 11:22 AM GMT
They may or may not win mac - and I could have written a justification for not backing them!

I agree with your assessment of the Browns as more balanced, but if both sides of that see-saw are "Below average" then that might not help them! Laugh
Report NonVintage December 12, 2021 6:48 PM GMT
Lamar Jackson injured with Cleveland already 10pts up... Think you could be in business here mac!
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY December 12, 2021 7:06 PM GMT
Lot of one sided games this week.

Chiefs and cowboys seeing who can get the job done  by half time. Browns have won. Ravens don't score enough and defence has been unusually brittle today.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY December 12, 2021 7:07 PM GMT
Saints need a QB
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY December 12, 2021 7:20 PM GMT
Cowboys 21prs up and Dak has thrown like a clown.....heinke has been awful and that has only been surpassed by the Raiders team all over. They've played so poorly I don't think I've seen a worse performance
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:04 PM GMT
Raiders shouldn't have danced about on the Chiefs logo before kick off.
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:05 PM GMT
Ravens chances went after Jackson injury. Hope Lamar is ok.
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:05 PM GMT
Ravens chances went after Jackson injury. Hope Lamar is ok.
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:06 PM GMT
Ravens chances went after Jackson injury. Hope Lamar is ok.
Report tobermory December 12, 2021 9:08 PM GMT
Drama at end of this one
Report tobermory December 12, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
Browns survive
Report NonVintage December 13, 2021 11:49 AM GMT
Ended up with some more entertaining finishes than looked likely in quite a few games. In a bizarre (but not unexpected) twist of fate, the predictor picked 11 of 13 winners overall, but 0 from 2 on the selected bets. Thanks mate! Laugh

Lots of favourites going in this week overall for once!
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 8:01 PM GMT
Small sample size; but from the couple of games I've seen I'm think the back up QB might be as good as Lamar. Certainly looks better than a lot of the starters on some teams
Report NonVintage December 14, 2021 7:04 PM GMT
Agreed tobermory - he looks decent enough and LJ seems distracted or just slightly off at the moment. The Ravens definitely played better with the QB change.
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