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tobermory
09 Dec 21 23:38
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Date Joined: 01 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 63,965 | Blogger: tobermory's blog
Friday 1:21

2.68 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings 1.59


Sunday 18:01

2.30 Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers 1.77
2.34 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns 1.74
1.53 Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team 2.88
4.9 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans 1.25
4.9 Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs 1.25
1.45 New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets 3.2
1.29 Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans 4.4


Sunday 21:06

5 Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos 1.25
5 New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers 1.25


Sunday 21:26


2.62 Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.62
1.87 San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals 2.14


Monday 1:21

6.8 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers 1.17


Tuesday 1:21

2.26 Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals 1.79

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Replies: 63
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Dec 21 23:39
Very surprised to see the Ravens underdogs to the Browns.
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 00:35
Very much agreed on the Ravens/Browns tobermory... maybe they know something we don't!
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 00:40
I had to check to see if Lamar was out, but no.

In the last game he played about as bad as possible but they still won.
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 00:41
Vikings a bit short tonight with Adam Thielen out ?
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 00:49
How are the Texans 4.4 at home against the Seahawks? They beat the Titans a fortnight ago and Tennessee are a far superior team to Seattle.

Too much being made of Seahawk's win last week against 49ers. They have been pathetic the previous three weeks and Wilson throwing with a bad hand.

I can't resist that price on Houston. Seattle being priced on past reputation imo.  Not saying Seahawks will definitely not win but the prices are bonkers. Way off the mark. Texans for I on moneyline at 4.4 and handicap +8.5
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 00:58
Yes T, Thielen a big miss. No big bet for I. Can't depend on any of the two QBs. Cousins totally inconsistent and Big Ben over the hill.

..... Just for an interest:

Jefferson first TD @ 11/2
Jefferson anytime TD @ 10/11
Jefferson two or more TD @ 7/2
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 01:00
Yeah I thought Texans/Seahawks would be more like 3.0/1.5 odds
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 01:05
At them prices one couldn't lose.

It would be 1\2 and 7\4 T.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 01:06
Apologies my mistake T.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 01:08
Have you get anything tonight T?
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 01:14
Like you said, hard to be confident about either of these. Minnesota the better team usually but no Thielen and Dalvin Cook plays although he dislocated his shoulder the other week.

If I thought the Steelers would play as well as last week I'd back them at the prices, but that seemed to come out of the blue and likely they will revert to previous form.
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 01:16
The Jefferson bets seem reasonable as he has to be most of their gameplan.
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 01:27
damn, Jefferson almost had one in the first 3 minutes
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 01:50
Jefferson first TD @ 11/2
Jefferson anytime TD @ 10/11
Jefferson two or more TD @ 7/2


Landed the first two bets already, nice.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 02:30
This is a massacre so far. One way traffic.

Two up Tobermory on the Jefferson bets like you say. Should be three. Twice so near. Plenty of time but I wish he would get it quick.

... Reading between your posts, I conclude you are on too. I hope so mate.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 02:33
Yet another chance blown. A better throw from Cousins and Jefferson scores.
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 02:41
nah, never bet on the game at all.

Yeah, unlucky not to have all 3 up by now, Steelers getting demolished.
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 03:15
Jeez... Steelers' offensive line has completely disintegrated here. It's almost hard to watch...
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 03:39
And every snap is above Ben's right shoulder... come on guys!
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 03:47
Najee having a good spell here. Snaps still crazy bad! Laugh
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 04:08
1.01 in some trouble now, 9pts game with long way to go.
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 04:16
That TD probably settles it, but the Vikings seem intent on making things 'interesting' every game they play!
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 04:25
From 29-0 to 36-28
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 04:28

Dec 10, 2021 -- 12:49AM, themightymac wrote:


How are the Texans 4.4 at home against the Seahawks? They beat the Titans a fortnight ago and Tennessee are a far superior team to Seattle. Too much being made of Seahawk's win last week against 49ers. They have been pathetic the previous three weeks and Wilson throwing with a bad hand.I can't resist that price on Houston. Seattle being priced on past reputation imo.

By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 04:29

Dec 10, 2021 -- 4:25AM, tobermory wrote:


From 29-0 to 36-28


Yeah, it's been a fun last 20 minutes!!!

By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 04:40
Mac, I just wrote a whole bit about why the Texans shouldn't be able to beat Seattle, but the forum gremlins appear to have swallowed it.

In essence, yes the price is wrong (I'd go 1.56/2.53), but Seattle might only need 18pts to win.

Houston are almost certainly the weakest team in the NFL, have changed their starting QB about a hundred times already this season, and face a surprisingly adequate Seahawks defense.

I am almost certain the game against the Titans was an anomaly. Tennessee were out of sorts, and everything that could go wrong did, including a shocker (and four interceptions) for Tannehill. They still outyarded Houston by more than 2:1 and only lost by 8 points. I don't think this 'form' is worth anything.

I wouldn't back Seattle at the prices though, and couldn't back Houston with someone else's money, even though they might theoretically be good value...
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 04:45
1.01 backers can afford to go and buy some new underwear now...

Great game in the end, having looked a non-event for 40 minutes!
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 04:46
Imagine being 29-0 up late in the 3rd quarter, but having to bite your nails to the last play (which was almost a TD)

Crazy game.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:48
Twenty nine points up near end of third quarter and Vikings just hold on Laugh Zimmer is a zoomer. Crazy
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 04:48
I see Tyrod Taylor is probably out for the Texans, which maybe explains the price, as I think the back up, Mills, is a bit out of his depth.
By:
tobermory
When: 10 Dec 21 04:50
Other underdogs I like are the Jets @3.2 v the totally gone Saints, and Detroit @5 vs the Broncos.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:50
Well two out of three bets up on Jefferson. Take that every time.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:51
I like the Jets too T.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:51
I like the Jets too T.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:54
Texans game is going to be very interesting. I'm out numbered lol but I stick with Houston at the over price. Wilson is not 100%. And Metcalfe in the huff.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:57
Good post Non Vintage. Interesting to get others opinions. I would wish you good luck but I can't for obvious reasons lol.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:57
Good post Non Vintage. Interesting to get others opinions. I would wish you good luck but I can't for obvious reasons lol.
By:
NonVintage
When: 10 Dec 21 04:57
I'd say that both those favourites are marginally too short, and there are reasons for being interested in both outsiders. For me, not enough to back them, but yes I can see where you are coming from.

From my perspective (still in theoretical value terms rather than actual bets), Tampa Bay are too short against Buffalo, and even though I love the Cardinals this year, I could see them getting into trouble against the Rams - am surprised they are so solid as favourites.
By:
themightymac
When: 10 Dec 21 04:58
Goodnight folks.
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