Cowboys -v- KCC (Week 11)

So Kansas finally put a decent performance in and have jostled their way to the top of their division too. They definitely looked better here, showing more flair on the offense and more steel defensively too - possibly because the defensive line had time to catch its breath between opposition drives.

But, Dallas are a very different calibre of opponent than the Chiefs have faced recently: Kansas' recent run of wins has been against the Giants (average at best), the Packers (Rodgered by Covid), and the Raiders (who had the look and feel of a team whose adrenaline had finally run out after a traumatic few weeks off the field). The first two of these wins were deeply unimpressive, and it remains to be seen whether beating LVR counts for much at the moment.

Dallas misfiresd completely against Denver, but otherwise have looked like one of the most rounded and dangerous across either conference this year. They bounced back to hammer the (kind of) resurgent Falcons last week, and won't need extra motivation to put in a proper effort against KCC.

Current prices seem to indicate that Kansas are back and better than ever - they are 1.71 favourites to win here - but I'm not yet convinced. Dallas have far less to prove and as the away team and underdogs here, might find the pressure and focus off them in a positive way. I'd have priced this up with Dallas as joint-favourites at worst.

Predictor says Dallas Cowboys 25-20 Kansas City Chiefs and I'm happy to take 2.2 about a team I think are better.