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I think that almost all of the games this coming week are priced up pretty much spot on, and although there is some scope for a few mini surprises (maybe Jacksonville will push the Seahawks close, and likewise Washington could get into the Broncos), for me only one game stands out as offering good value...
New England are definitely showing signs of improvement of late. They have started looking quite mean and well organised defensively, have a rookie QB who is actually looking competent and confident, and they seem to be maximising their point scoring opportunities, particularly when rushing.
Whereas they arrive here on the back of a confidence-boosting hammering of the Jets, the Chargers have had a week off to lick their wounds after a surprisingly brutal defeat handed to them by the (mostly) decent Baltimore Ravens.
LAC play a more expansive offensive game - and do so pretty well - but I worry that they might be inclined to tinker with things after that last game. The noises from their coaching staff seemed to suggest this whereas quite possibly they would be better off just shrugging it off and not changing the things that were working so well for them.
Overall, LA have the better form (and better win record) this year, and might be the more 'talented' team but I like this match up for the Patriots. In particular, their rush game is much stronger, and this is the Chargers' biggest weakness.
The predicterometer has this as New England Patriots 27-26 LA Chargers which clearly isn't much of a margin but the Patriots are priced up at 2/1 for the win. I see this as a marginally-in-our-favour coin toss, and that 2/1 is just too generous to pass up.
New England are definitely showing signs of improvement of late. They have started looking quite mean and well organised defensively, have a rookie QB who is actually looking competent and confident, and they seem to be maximising their point scoring opportunities, particularly when rushing.
Whereas they arrive here on the back of a confidence-boosting hammering of the Jets, the Chargers have had a week off to lick their wounds after a surprisingly brutal defeat handed to them by the (mostly) decent Baltimore Ravens.
LAC play a more expansive offensive game - and do so pretty well - but I worry that they might be inclined to tinker with things after that last game. The noises from their coaching staff seemed to suggest this whereas quite possibly they would be better off just shrugging it off and not changing the things that were working so well for them.
Overall, LA have the better form (and better win record) this year, and might be the more 'talented' team but I like this match up for the Patriots. In particular, their rush game is much stronger, and this is the Chargers' biggest weakness.
The predicterometer has this as New England Patriots 27-26 LA Chargers which clearly isn't much of a margin but the Patriots are priced up at 2/1 for the win. I see this as a marginally-in-our-favour coin toss, and that 2/1 is just too generous to pass up.
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In case anyone is interested, the model/algorithm that I'm using is based purely on (literally) a handful of stats and metrics - there is no manual tweaking or subjectivity, other than when it comes to the 'nap' selection that I write up here, and even then it is only my choice if there are joint-strongest bets thrown up that week.
Possibly, this is a strength in some ways. I like NFL a lot, but have only really got into it again in the last 2-3 years, and I don't have detailed knowledge about rivalries or historic stats or head-to-head records - I don't care (or more accurately the predictor doesn't care) how long ago it was that the Seagulls last beat the Bisons (
) away from home in October or whatever.
It is still way too early to say that it works (i.e. produces a consistent profit in the medium to long term), but I have pulled out some initial stats which are definitely promising:
Weeks 5-7 (I think it needs 4 weeks of games/stats before we can say we've learnt anything about the teams, and also I only put it together after the Wk4 games!)
43 games, with 42 predictions (one suggested tie which gets ignored - it didn't finish anything like tied)
The predictor gave 32/42 correct winners, +£8.13 level stakes profit (+19.4%)
It suggested 11 bets based on value offered by mid-week Money Line odds
From these, 7 of the 11 won, +£5.17 LSP (+47.0%)
For these suggested bets, it also indicates a variable stake strength based on the Kelly Criteria, capped and translated to a 1-5pt scale. Basically this compares the predicted likelihood of the win against the available midweek Money Line odds - the bigger the discrepancy, the higher the suggested stake.
Using this staking plan, 22pts bet have resulted in +£14.29 (+65.0%)
~~~~~~~~
Effectively, the fact that it shows a decent strike rate and some level stakes profit across all games is quite reassuring. If it didn't, it would be hard to say that it was doing anything useful in terms of successful Predicting.
I think the degree of profits shown on all 3 measures are almost certainly unrealistic and unsustainable though. The chances of this (especially as a first attempt) being such a golden goose are almost nil.
Realistically, if it was able to get to the end of the season showing something like 8-10% LSP on all games, and 15-20% on suggested value bets, that would be beyond my expectations and probably encourage me to boot it into action again next season!
Possibly, this is a strength in some ways. I like NFL a lot, but have only really got into it again in the last 2-3 years, and I don't have detailed knowledge about rivalries or historic stats or head-to-head records - I don't care (or more accurately the predictor doesn't care) how long ago it was that the Seagulls last beat the Bisons (
) away from home in October or whatever.It is still way too early to say that it works (i.e. produces a consistent profit in the medium to long term), but I have pulled out some initial stats which are definitely promising:
Weeks 5-7 (I think it needs 4 weeks of games/stats before we can say we've learnt anything about the teams, and also I only put it together after the Wk4 games!)
43 games, with 42 predictions (one suggested tie which gets ignored - it didn't finish anything like tied)
The predictor gave 32/42 correct winners, +£8.13 level stakes profit (+19.4%)
It suggested 11 bets based on value offered by mid-week Money Line odds
From these, 7 of the 11 won, +£5.17 LSP (+47.0%)
For these suggested bets, it also indicates a variable stake strength based on the Kelly Criteria, capped and translated to a 1-5pt scale. Basically this compares the predicted likelihood of the win against the available midweek Money Line odds - the bigger the discrepancy, the higher the suggested stake.
Using this staking plan, 22pts bet have resulted in +£14.29 (+65.0%)
~~~~~~~~
Effectively, the fact that it shows a decent strike rate and some level stakes profit across all games is quite reassuring. If it didn't, it would be hard to say that it was doing anything useful in terms of successful Predicting.
I think the degree of profits shown on all 3 measures are almost certainly unrealistic and unsustainable though. The chances of this (especially as a first attempt) being such a golden goose are almost nil.
Realistically, if it was able to get to the end of the season showing something like 8-10% LSP on all games, and 15-20% on suggested value bets, that would be beyond my expectations and probably encourage me to boot it into action again next season!
I love it m8 !! If you think you can find an edge got to be worth pursuing.
Many systems come and go but got to give them a try. Will be very interesting how you do this season.
I like laying the short ones when their is doubt and the Chargers do look a bit skinny at less than 1.5.
GL !!
Many systems come and go but got to give them a try. Will be very interesting how you do this season.
I like laying the short ones when their is doubt and the Chargers do look a bit skinny at less than 1.5.
GL !!
Oct 27, 2021 -- 2:27AM, england_v_south_afri wrote:
I love it m8 !! If you think you can find an edge got to be worth pursuing. Many systems come and go but got to give them a try. Will be very interesting how you do this season.I like laying the short ones when their is doubt and the Chargers do look a bit skinny at less than 1.5.GL !!
Thanks england!
Cheers both! Now looking forward to an interesting Vikings/Cowboys game, where we should learn at least a bit about how much of the Cowboys' success has been down to Dak!
Nov 1, 2021 -- 8:46PM, SlippyBlue wrote:
Very well done N.V. Top tipstering there.
Thanks Slippy... kind of need a loser soon to take the pressure off!!!
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