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Jb23
30 Mar 16 12:02
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Date Joined: 23 Oct 15
| Topic/replies: 443 | Blogger: Jb23's blog
Has anyone taken up any long term positions?

Quite liking the Texas Rangers at 16-1. In a division where the A's, Angels & Mariners aren't very good. The Houston Astro's weren't good enough last season and have only added Ken Giles from the Phillies to close games out. The Rangers will have a full season of Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish back from TJ surgery and welcome Ian Desmond, a more than competent major league bat. Personally think they're a cracking bet to win the AL Central & it all

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Replies: 236
By:
Jb23
When: 31 Mar 16 17:47
Just had a look at William Hills Specials. Think they have misplaced a few badly. Personally really like and have had a go on:

Dee Gordon Most Regular Runs (50-1)
Manny Machado Most Regular Runs (25-1)
Xander Bogaerts Most Regular Runs (80-1)

Roberto Osuna Most Regular Saves (66-1)

Joc Pederson Most Regular Home Runs (80-1)
JD Martinez Most Regular Home Runs (25-1)
Carlos Gonzalez Most Regular Home Runs (50-1)

Texas Rangers (AL West), Chicago Cub (NL Central) & San Francisco Giants (NL West) all to win their division
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 03 Apr 16 08:40
I only bet on here so none of those markets available. I did have a quick look though, so for fun I'll put mine up.

Runs Heyward 28-1
Runs Blackmon 50-1

Saves Papelbon 22-1

HRs Bautista 20-1
HRs Arenado 20-1

No standout bets in the divisions. Texas do seem quite big at 11/4, I suppose.

I have Boston as the final leg of a yankee with winners at 7-1 & 12-1 so I'm kinda rooting for them. Only other team that interests me at the prices is Cleveland at 28-1.

I might use this thread to put up my daily pics. See how bad I do at that!
By:
Jb23
When: 03 Apr 16 13:48
I do like that Heyward price. Batting in front of Rizzo, Bryant & Schwarber will give him protection + some power to drive him in. Nice spot.

Thats a nice looking yankee! What is daily betting like on here for the MLB? Is there much liquidity within the markets?
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 03 Apr 16 14:04
Pre-game is fine. In-running died a long time ago.

(Probably exaggerating both tbh, but it's close enough that I'll go with it!)
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 06 Apr 16 00:54
Well if I'm gonna do this, might as well make a start. Was considering backing Houston earlier but the Barca-Atletico game was my main focus tonight so left it alone. Don't like backing the fav anyway. So, just had a quick look at tonight's odds and the biggest dog is my beloved Brewers at home to the Giants. The Brewers have been a righty heavy lineup for years so, on the face of it, facing a decent righty in Cueto doesn't look appealing. I looked at Cueto's splits last year though and he was actually better against lefties (.598 OPS vs L, .744 vs R.) Nelson is clearly no great shakes himself, and lefties hammered him last year, but he was pretty good against righties (.568 OPS) so with a bit of luck, he can keep the score down. I don't trust either bullpen! Wouldn't put anybody off overs but it's not a bet I have oftem and 8.5 always seems high unless they're in Denver. Anywho...

Bet 1 Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants 2.50

(Might not bother with any analysis on my future losing tips but wanted to explain my rationale for backing the friggin' Brewers!)
By:
Jb23
When: 07 Apr 16 12:50
Nice write up! A little unlucky with the result too. I haven't had any great involvement with anything as of yet. Only a couple of fun bets with Powers on their pitcher under/over strikeout markets, but even that is proving to be a minefield with NL pitchers being Pinch hit for and pitch counts being monitored carefully to begin the season. I also like the 0 runs in the first inning when there looks to be a favourable match up with those at the top of the line up. Glancing over the games tonight (No line ups out yet!!)

San Francisco Giants (vs LA Dodgers) @ 1.91
LA Angels  (vs Texas Rangers) @ 1.81

would be my two fancies. But i will wait for the line ups to come out before making any decision! Go Rays!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 11 Apr 16 23:07
Can't resist taking on the Mets anaemic offense, even if it's with Jarred Cosart...

Bet 2 Miami Marlins @ NY Mets 2.52

Buy walks!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 12 Apr 16 20:46
Not sure why I've had this but I did so in the book it goes.

Bet 3 Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 2.32

Hope I haven't Maeda mistake.

I'll get me coat.
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 12 Apr 16 20:52
Thor vs Jofer should be a corker. Half-thought about backing the Marlins again. Syndergaard was awesome against the Royals which is enough to put me off.
By:
Jb23
When: 13 Apr 16 11:50
Great shout w/ Marlins!

Fernandez & Syndegaard was a cracker. Personally finding the Mets very attractive to take on at the moment and considering laying them for the East. I think as good as their pitching was last season, it still took the arrival of Cespedes and then him to bat like Ted Williams for them to make the playoffs and then Magic of Murphy in October for them to get to the WS. I don't personally believe that their pitching can get them to the big song & dance in October. They need consistent offense and I don't think they have the means to be regular r3/4 run scorers.

Haven't had any winners since the 2 above, been jibbing cash on the inplay markets trying to get bullpens beat when starters come out!

Il take the Red Sox (1.83) to beat the Orioles tonight. Ubaldo Jimenez has a terrible record against Boston (7.26ERA) and then I will also take Padres (2.04) to win in Philly. Neither teams starting pitching enamours me that much, but Eickhoff for the Phillies has more question marks than Rea. Also prefer the Padres offense over the Phillies too
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 14 Apr 16 16:58
Going in again on the Diamondbacks, this time against Ross Stripling's no-hit stuff plus the Dodgers shaky bullpen. Have actually laid Dodgers @ 1.75 but, for consistency, will post as a back.

Bet 4 Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 2.33

Was considering the Brewers but could've got 2.9+ early doors and they're sub-2.6 now, so I'll pass.
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 14 Apr 16 19:46
Note to self: DO NOT even 'consider' backing the Brewers when Wily Peralta is on the hill.
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 15 Apr 16 21:37
Going nuts on tonight's games. Placed a few bets in a drunken haze last night that I'll probably regret:

Bet 5 Brewers @ Pirates 2.36
Bet 6 White Sox @ Rays 1.93 (laid a bit back to effectively give myself 2.01 but will go with price available)
Bet 7 Giants @ Dodgers 2.56

I put in backs on the Dbacks and A's too but not matched. Just had a quick look again at tonight's matches and I can't resist going the Tigers facing reigning AL Cy Young, Dallas Keuchel. Now, I love Keuchel. Got him late in last years's fantasy league and just love watching him pitch. He's like a lefty Greinke the way he pitches on the edges and they both field their position brilliantly. Greinke is my favourite player, possibly ever, so I really do like Keuchel. That said, I've just read a piece on FanGraphs that raises concerns about his velocity so far this season and I'll take a chance on Detroit's righty-heavy lineup at the odds, and hope that Pelfrey doesn't totally stink up the joint!

Bet 8 Tigers @ Astros 2.86
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 16 Apr 16 09:45
You win some 1-0, you lose some 0-1... wish they'd been the other way round but ne'er mind.

1. Milwaukee Brewers vs SF Giants 2.50 Lost -1.00
2. Miami Marlins @ NY Mets 2.52 WON +0.52
3. Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers 2.32 WON +1.84
4. Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers 2.33 Lost +0.84
5. Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2.36 WON +2.20
6. Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays 1.93 WON +3.13
7. SF Giants @ LA Dodgers 2.56 Lost +2.13
8. Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros 2.86 Lost +1.13
By:
Jb23
When: 16 Apr 16 10:19
1. San Francisco Giants over Los Angeles Dodgers WON +0.91
2. Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers WON + 1.72
3. Boston Red sox over Baltimore Orioles  WON + 2.55
4. San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies LOST +1.55

Tonights:
5. Tampa Bay Over Chicago White Sox 
As a Rays fan, Im a big fan of Ramirez. Its his first start of the season, had a very good 2015 (3.73ERA & 1.13 WHIP). Theres no price on Exchanges yet, but will call it 1.80

6. Texas Rangers Over Baltimore Orioles @ 1.95
Lewis pitched a cracker on Monday. Gallardo on the mound for the O's 8-6 record in Globe Life


Promise no bias in this! Wink
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 16 Apr 16 16:42
Nowt wrong with a bit of bias, although I'll pass on the Brewers today. Was debating backing the Dodgers, who I've opposed three times already, facing Cueto (who I've also opposed) and the Giants. They've been pretty short in the three games I took them on in, but are near Evs today. Still, I like a more reliable SP than Kazmir when I'm taking the odds. So, naturally, I'm taking a journeyman SP in Estrada against one of the best in the league in David Price!

Bet 9 Blue Jays @ Red Sox 2.33
By:
Jb23
When: 16 Apr 16 17:16
Also the Rays have lost 3 in a row and White Sox won 5 in a row....162 game season; law of averages!?

Jesus is this what my punting has come to.....Laugh
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 17 Apr 16 17:36
Bet 10 Tigers @ Rangers 2.24
Bet 11 Royals @ A's 2.14
By:
Jb23
When: 17 Apr 16 17:37
1. San Francisco Giants over Los Angeles Dodgers WON +0.91
2. Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers WON + 1.72
3. Boston Red sox over Baltimore Orioles  WON + 2.55
4. San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies LOST +1.55
5. Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White sox WON +2.35
6. Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles WON +3.40

7. New York Yankees OVER Seattle Mariners @ 1.79
Tanaka has a brilliant record vs Seattle. Cruz/Cano together have 1 hit in 22ABS vs him

8. Oakland Athletics OVER Kansas City Royals @ 1.91
Bassit pitched a cracker vs the M's early in the week. 1 Unearned in 7 scoreless. Medlen not started to well for the Royals either
By:
Jb23
When: 18 Apr 16 09:54
1. San Francisco Giants over Los Angeles Dodgers WON +0.91
2. Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers WON + 1.72
3. Boston Red sox over Baltimore Orioles  WON + 2.55
4. San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies LOST +1.55
5. Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White sox WON +2.35
6. Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles WON +3.40
7. New York Yankees OVER Seattle Mariners WON  +4.19
8. Oakland Athletics OVER Kansas City Royals WON + 5.10

9. Washington Nationals OVER Miami Marlins @2.00 (no prices on machine yet so taken William Hill 1-1)
Reluctant to take on Jose Fernandez, but they're treating him with caution still. Wouldn't imagine him to go any further than 100 pitches. Washington are in the top 30% of teams striking out the least & top 30% of walks. Would imagine there is a game plan to take as many pitches as possible & drive his count up. Roark also has a very impressive 2.39ERA from 4 starts in Marlins park. Even money a very fair price in my opinion.
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 18 Apr 16 21:30
You're going great so far, JB. A little pissed that the Royals bullpen coughed it up to let your A's bet click. If Medlen had got shelled I'd have been fine with it!

I'll be joining you on the Nats. Hope you've topped up at the prices. Having a crack at Syndergaard for giggles. Also having a bet on the game featuring the two teams I hate most!

Bet 12 Nationals @ Marlins 2.56
Bet 13 Phillies vs Mets 2.84
Bet 14 Cardinals vs Cubs 2.06
By:
Jb23
When: 19 Apr 16 16:33
Haha thanks- Who do you support of if not the Cubs/Cards!?

Fernandez is some talent. Onwards and upwards.

Im going to have some of Detroit tonight. 2.34 seems large for a team with an offense as explosive as theirs. Just got this off MLB probable pitchers - Green "He tossed eight innings of one-run ball in his only meeting with the Royals last May". Thats good enough for me given  Ventura has walked 9 in 12 innings. JD Martinez is .364 in 11ABs vs him & V Mart is .308 with 2 home runs 13ABs vs Ventura.

1. San Francisco Giants over Los Angeles Dodgers WON +0.91
2. Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers WON + 1.72
3. Boston Red sox over Baltimore Orioles  WON + 2.55
4. San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies LOST +1.55
5. Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White sox WON +2.35
6. Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles WON +3.40
7. New York Yankees OVER Seattle Mariners WON  +4.19
8. Oakland Athletics OVER Kansas City Royals WON + 5.10
9. Washington Nationals OVER Miami Marlins LOST + 4.10

10. Detroit Tigers OVER Kansas City Royals @2.34
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 19 Apr 16 23:24
I'm joining you again. I either follow your tips or use a pin cos I stink at the minute! I was actually planning on backing Detroit against Pittsburgh last week when Greene was due to oppose Liriano, but the latter was scratched. I rarely look at BvP stats but those you mention are encouraging. I still think Ventura could be a beast but he's way too erratic, for now at least. Watch him K 11 and walk none!

Bet whatever... Tigers @ Royals 2.54

Just had to check the lineup before I posted as I was a bit alarmed to see you got 2.34. Still, Miggy, JD and VMart are all in it so not sure why the drift.
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 22 Apr 16 23:17
Let's see if I can put up three more losers... I don't have many favs but thought Tampa Bay might be a bit shorter tonight. The Yankees struggles against lefties are well known and the Rays have a couple of BvP darlings in Longoria and Forsythe. Backing against my Brewers for the first time. Not sure they should be 1.8 against anyone with Davies starting, and Nola is pretty decent. Also having a tickle on the Braves. Harvey has been pretty wild so far and I'm still not sold on the Mets bats yet, although I was having similar thoughts about the Cubs prior to yesterday's demolition of the Reds!

15. Rays @ Yankees 1.94
16. Braves vs Mets 2.84
17. Phillies @ Brewers 2.22
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 03 May 16 00:09
Had a few days off. Needed it! Not much thought gone into these...

16. Braves @ Mets 2.96
17. Brewers vs Angels 2.00
18. Twins @ Astros 2.74
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 03 May 16 00:14
Erm, 18 19 & 20!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 04 May 16 22:36
21. Dbacks @ Miami 2.68
22. White Sox vs Red Sox 1.91
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 05 May 16 10:52
1. Milwaukee Brewers vs SF Giants 2.50 Lost (1-2) -1.00
2. Miami Marlins @ NY Mets 2.52 WON (10-3) +0.52
3. Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers 2.32 WON (4-2) +1.84
4. Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers 2.33 Lost (2-5) +0.84
5. Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2.36 WON (8-4) +2.20
6. Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays 1.93 WON (1-0) +3.13
7. SF Giants @ LA Dodgers 2.56 Lost (3-7)) +2.13
8. Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros 2.86 Lost (0-1) +1.13
9. Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox 2.33 Lost (2-4) +0.13
10. Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros 2.24 Lost (4-5) -0.87
11. Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics 2.14 Lost (2-3) -1.87
12. Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins 2.56 Lost (1-6) -2.87
13. Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets 2.84 Lost (2-5) -3.87
14. St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs 2.06 Lost (0-5) -4.87
15. Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals 2.54 Lost (6-8) -5.87
16. Tampa Bay Rays @ NY Yankees 1.94 Lost (3-6) -6.87
17. Atlanta Braves vs NY Mets 2.84 Lost (3-6) -7.87
18. Phillies @ Brewers 2.22 WON Shocked (5-2) -6.65
19. Atlanta Braves @ NY Mets 2.96 Lost (1-4) -7.65
20. Brewers vs Angels 2.00 WON (8-5) -6.65
21. Twins @ Astros 2.74 WON (6-2) -4.91
22. Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins 2.68 Lost (3-4) -5.91
23. Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox 1.91 Lost (2-5) -6.91

6-17 on the season so far puts me on par with the Braves. Hope all my loyal followers are making bank!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 05 May 16 21:51
Correction: 7-16. Rejoice!!

Just the one bet tonight. Got both Joe Ross and Kyle Hendricks on my floundering (defending champions, in case I haven't mentioned it before) fantasy team, so I just hope it doesn't end up 9-7. As I have no hitters from either team, 1-0 Washington would be perfect.

24. Nats @ Cubs 2.38
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 07 May 16 18:13
25. A's @ O's 1.91
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 09 May 16 23:19
26. Brewers @ Marlins 3.5
27. A's @ Red Sox 2.28

Obviously the Brewers are a speculative punt. Peralta has been awful but he does have stuff - most of it hittable! JoFer hasn't been quite himself either though, and I'm hoping he has one of his wilder nights.
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 11 May 16 00:00
28. Royals @ Yankees 2.74
By:
Jb23
When: 15 Sep 16 11:57
Apologies Mikael. May was extremely busy with work and ended up forgetting about this thread! I hope you have had a good & profitable season!

The Giants from being 9.5 games atop the NL West have now managed to find themselves 5 back in the Divisional race. It blows your mind this game sometimes. 90% Of the season I have been mentally spending my Cubs/Rangers/Giants divisional bet!

Alas, Im still in on the Rangers for the WS, so here is hoping!

How are you going?
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 17 Sep 16 16:02
On the Mers and Dodgers at around 25-1 each  to win it all.
By:
nugget
When: 20 Sep 16 04:48
Chiraq Cubs
By:
Jb23
When: 25 Sep 16 18:59
This Jose Fernandez news is probably one of the most heartbreaking things I have ever seen. 24 with the world at his feet, a pregnant girlfriend, Career record of 38-17 with a 2.58ERA. 2 All-star selections & a Rookie of the year. Always came across as a lovely human being who just loved life and the game of baseball.

Just puts life into perspective.

Rest in Paradise Jose.
By:
Jb23
When: 06 Oct 16 09:39
I hope I wasn't the only one watching last nights Wild Card game. Bumgarner vs Syndegaard was an absolute honour, that was incredible.

How about Mad bum tho?

- He has never allowed a hit with a runner in scoring position on the road in postseason baseball.
- Madison Bumgarner's last 9 postseason appearances (8 starts): 68.2 innings, 0.79 ERA, 3 shutouts, 6-1 record, 1 save
- Last 33 postseason innings for Bumgarner: 1 earned run.
By:
nugget
When: 07 Oct 16 23:58
MadBum is an absolute horse!
By:
nugget
When: 08 Oct 16 00:01
Dodgers up 4-0 against the Washington but the Nationals have Kershaw's pitch count up.  Dodgers will probably have to rely on the bullpen.  Dodgers trading sub 1.10, I don't think this one is over.
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