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07 Feb 16 19:49
Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
Only one game to go before I concentrate fully on Spurs' relentless march to Premier League glory and the new Argentinian football season.

I fancy Denver to win this SU. But they aren't my biggest bets in the game which I will explain later.

I think Denver have done well this year considering they haven't played that great this season. Yes their defence has been lights out but their offence has suffered along from moderate displays to downright pathetic showings. So it's a credit that they are here.

We have seen the best of Carolina. There will be no improvement in this match - in fairness there might not need to be. But are they as good as there record shows? Have they been flattered? I think they have.

Seattle's performance in the first half against them was non existent before a Carson Palmer display that was about as bad as I have ever seen in a championship game. What would Carolina's record be if they had Denver's schedule?

I thought Manning improved against the Pats. I thought there were definite signs that all is not lost. If he It improves again them I expect more from Denver's offence. Thomas and Sanders are big time players. Daniels has stepped up in recent weeks. Davis really should be much better than he is showing. There running game has potential with Hilman and Anderson.

I expect Denver's secondary to really shut down Teddy Ginn, Philly Brown and Greg Olsen. Denver's secondary is very good. They play man to man. The Pats basically got no change against them. I expect them to be all over a lesser receiving core tonight.

Denver have allowed the least amount of rushing yards all season. I expect them to shut down Stewart and Tolbert. The unknown is Cam. If Cam takes off. Will Denver spy. I'm not sure they will. They seem at ease trying to get home with only four rushers.

I'm expecting a huge game from Demaryius Thimas and I think he is a potential match up nightmare for the Panthers. Josh Norman tends to stay on the one side of the field. Therefore Thomas can beast the other side where the Panthers secondary is weak. Thomas has shown in recent weeks signs of life and he is more than capable of producing in a game like this.

Denver are the better team. That's just facts. Carolina have the X factor with their QB but Denver are the better all round team. Denver have plenty of weapons on offence too but people seem to forget that.

My one concern for Denver tonight is Cam's running ability. Alex Smith ran for 33 yards against Denver in their match against the Cheifs and Cam is more of a threat than Smith. Quite often teams that play the schemes that Denver do, like the Seahwks D in their prime, leave running lanes for the QB. Kaepernick used to shred the Seahawks with his legs and I can see Newton doing the same to the Broncos. Even Brady waddled forward for a half decent run last week. Also I think it will be part of Carolina's game plan to run Cam early in order to force the Broncos to set someone to spy on Cam all night. They will want to force Wade Phillips off his original game plan.

On the other side of the ball Manniing ran for 10 yards last week and it was the first time all year he had positive rushing yards. PP are 4/6 him under 0.5 rushing yards tonight and I think that is a stunning bet. A) I don't think he will attempt one single run b) Denver will run the ball a lot so he will be handing the ball off loads and c) he will be concentrating on throwing the ball quickly in order to negate the Panthers' pass rush.





Pause Switch to Standard View ***Clay's Super Bowl Preview & Bets***
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Report bobby 1 February 7, 2016 7:59 PM GMT
i was struggling to find a bet tonight, but now i have just found an absolute cert

masssssssssive masssssive, i mean humungous gigantic mahoooosive bet on manning over 0.5 rushing yards

if you guys are in any doubt, its a one off massssssive largeeeeeeeeeeeee skyscraper of a bet Excited
Report Swagger February 7, 2016 8:12 PM GMT
Hey Clay - my post on the other thread crossed with yours. I agree with all your points and my main worry is the same as yours, that being Cam rushing with the ball. Good luck man Cool
Report Swagger February 7, 2016 8:15 PM GMT
It's an interesting game Clay as if you takeaway the quarterbacks, then I agree with you that Denver are clearly the better team. So we will see if Manning can roll back the years enough whilst driving the bus and if Denver can contain the Cam Newton supposed X-Factor as you astutely put it.
Report Roger De Bris February 7, 2016 8:57 PM GMT
Manning had success with his run last week. He might just go for one again!Laugh
Cam was Over 37.5yds rushing a few days ago!
Denver are not the better team. Carolina are the better team. That's why they are ranked between 60-65% to win.
Denver were pathetic against Pittsburgh at home and limped over the line at the end thanks to a fumble.
Even with Brady's non existent O line it took a missed PAT for them to scrape through.
Some of the Panthers are banged up though and that could be a big help for the boring Broncos!
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 3:33 AM GMT
Roger - serious question, do you still think Carolina are the better team?
Report Roger De Bris February 8, 2016 3:36 AM GMT
they were the better team over the 18 games, inexperience cost them.
Report sykes10 February 8, 2016 3:36 AM GMT
good shout clay
Report Roger De Bris February 8, 2016 3:39 AM GMT
some good calls there Clay wd.
Surprised you didnt go with Sanders over Thomas for the big game.
Sanders was the one in form.
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 3:39 AM GMT
Roger - I don't think it was inexperience, the Panthers had a soft schedule in the regular season and in reality when they faced a serious defense, they couldn't handle the Denver defense, neither could the Steelers and neither could the Patriots.
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 3:39 AM GMT
WD Clay - you take a lot of stick on here but credit where it is due
Report Roger De Bris February 8, 2016 3:44 AM GMT
Despite their schedule they played some unbelievable stuff the last few weeks against Seattle & Arizona, 2 top defenses.
Look at the stats for the tonight's game, they were all over Denver and had some very dubious calls go against them.
No catch call was ridiculous, and the DPI before the missed FG.
Two major fumbles as well. Carolina lost this game rather than Denver winning it.
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 3:51 AM GMT
I agree the Panthers played some top quality football in their previous two games but I don't think Arizona have a top defense and I don't think Seattle have the defense they did two years ago. The Denver defense were absolute lights out - they made Cam Newton look pretty average which given how he had been playing, was some performance. Cam Newton bigged himself up so much that it will be interesting to see how he reacts to this loss, some of it his own doing but the way he was portrayed in the media leading up the game was way over the top...Lebron James will probably be laughing his socks off Laugh
Report Roger De Bris February 8, 2016 3:57 AM GMT
Carolina will be back next year. Couple of better lineman, send Remmers to Siberia.
Send Tolbert & Stewart to H-Block. They'll be fine. Pity all their injuries fell on them at the wrong time.
Don't think the unbiased fans got a fair deal with some of the zebra calls, but fair play to DEnver. 1 x 3rd down conversion the whole game....Laugh must be a record....
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 4:00 AM GMT
I agree a few calls didn't go for Carolina. But based on the Dez Bryant "no catch" against the Packers in the post-season last year, surely the precedent had been set that the "catch" this evening was correct to be called a non catch based on that predecent and their current rules regarding control and possession of the ball. For me it's a catch as was Dez Bryant's so I think the rule needs changing.
Report therhino February 8, 2016 7:46 AM GMT
Do you not like the Panthers Swagger? Don't seem to give them any credit, instead you cite soft schedules and you compare good teams they did beat to how they were in yesteryear. They were brilliant this year, played great football and were sensational to watch. They win and entertain and will certainly be back. Hopefully they win you over next year, think they are deserving of more respect than you're offering. Well done on backing the Broncos over the last couple of weeks, called it well.
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 10:50 AM GMT
thehino - I was just giving my opinion. In the regular season apart from Green Bay I felt the Panthers had a soft schedule - I said it was purely my subjective opinion when I wrote my post and people can shoot me down it's fair enough. I agree that it's not their fault as they could only beat the teams put infront of them but I felt as a result they got overhyped and some couldn't see the wood from the trees. The point I was trying to make was that their schedule was relevant to their odds of winning the Superbowl as if you swapped around the schedules of the Panthers and the Broncos then would Denver have been 2/1 to win yesterday, for me, no.

I agree the Panthers were brilliant against the Seahawks I don't deny that but I was just playing devils advocate regarding their odds for the Superbowl. Would the Seahawks defense of two years ago lost the number of games and in the manner they did during this regular season? Not for me so I don't think they were the defense of two years back so again I was just making the point that perhaps that win flattered the Panthers. I previously expressed what I felt about Arizona and it was no surprise that they suffered another beatdown against a good team with Carson Palmer getting exposed for what he really is.

I came on here having being out watching the Patriots v Broncos game which I found exhilarating. Yet the posts on here ridiculing the quality of that match and how the Panthers would destroy the Broncos were so random and just wholly disrespectful towards the Denver defense. I haven't seen a defense carry a QB like the Denver defense did in the post season, all against good teams, and they still aren't getting the respect they deserve. People are more willing to focus on the Panthers bottling it or on Cam underperforming etc. Perhaps he just couldn't handle the pass rush and pressure in his face all evening as he was used to facing average defenses!

What I do give the Panthers credit for and anyone like yourself who backed them early doors this season is that once Kelvin Benjamin got ruled out for the season, I completely put a line through them as I just expected teams to take Olsen out the game and let Newton throw to in my opinion, average receivers. To a certain extent I think they got away with it against poor/average defenses during the regular season but against Denver those guys weren't able to get much separation and they made costly drops when they actually did get separation. Benjamin will provide another dimension next season so I give immense credit to them for reaching the superbowl without him as I didn't give them any sort of shot at the start of the season. Also, purely on a football level and completely ignoring his off the field problems, I do wonder how the game would have panned out last night if the Panthers still had Greg Hardy in their pass rush - I feel it would have been a very different game.
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 10:52 AM GMT
Sorry that should read
* apart from Green Bay and the Seahawks I felt it was a soft schedule
Report ClayDavis February 8, 2016 10:58 AM GMT
I'm surprised no one has talked about the Panthers' play calling last night as it was just awful. Constant run in first down - it was so predictable. Whenever they did play action on first down they hit big plays. Barely any designed run plays for Newton. Couldn't get Olsen free. No screens. Denver's D could tee off on it all night.

You say about Arizona and Seattle's D but Panthers' O looked great against them and Newton had all day to throw - against Denver the O line collapsed like a pack of cards.

The Steelers are the team who held up against Denver's pass rush, should have beaten Denver without two explosive weapons. The Steelers with Bell back and Bryant improving all the time, their D young and getting better, will be a tough team to stop next season
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 11:03 AM GMT
That's the point isn't Clay, the Denver defense forced the Carolina O-Line to crumble like that.

I do agree the play calling was somewhat questionable by Carolina on those first downs, just so obvious. I was surprised Cam didn't run with the ball more as they scored their TD when he rushed a few times so Denver had to take that into account more on that drive.
I do agree the Steelers are very much the team from the AFC I will be focusing on for next season.
Report therhino February 8, 2016 12:15 PM GMT
Good post Swagger. The Denver defense were incredible, don't think it was Cam's fault they lost, think it was Denver's D that caused the problems. Saw a stat somewhere I think the most any time has got to him this year in a game was 6 times, Denver got to him 13 times so more than double. Hard for any QB to deal with that pressure.

Read a good article recently about Elway. He saw himself in Manning after the Seahawks beat them down two years ago - he knew the high octane offense wouldn't win a SB with an old QB, so he blew it up and re-built the team in the mould of those teams he won his rings with. History repeats it turns out. Be interesting to see whether they go with Brock next year or go to market assuming Peyton quits. Not a great draft year upcoming for QB's from all reports.
Report Swagger February 8, 2016 12:32 PM GMT
I think Brady got hit 23 times against Denver in the Championship game, 23 times!!! I appreciate the Patriots had injuries to their O-Line but it's rare to see Brady get beat up like that and as you state, Cam got hit so many times last night like I hadn't seen all season so I don't think it was just the Carolina O-Line playing poorly as they had been playing well but just that the intensity of the Denver defense was frightening.

Yes have to give a lot of credit to Elway and the players to learn and come back from that beatdown they endured against the Seahawks. Sometimes when you lose you actually win long term and I think that's what the Panthers need to take away from the game last night.
Report Swardean February 8, 2016 1:05 PM GMT
Although it was perhaps a game for the "purists" I really enjoyed it.   The Denver team had done their homework last couple of weeks and completely shutdown Carolina.

A thoroughly deserved victory.

My only criticism of the Panthers was the decision not receive the ball after the initial coin toss.   For a team that had stolen the early initiative the last couple of games, it seemed a strange decision to me.
Report ClayDavis February 8, 2016 3:21 PM GMT
Swardean - I couldn't agree more. Do you think maybe there was something wrong with Newton and that was their reasoning behind it?
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