SuperBowl Winner

Steelers are capable of blowing anyone away.

Any one of five teams could win the AFC IMHO - I don't think the Texans can win it.

So the Pats are still very much in the hunt and they are getting players back.

In the NFC it boils down to Carolina, Arizona are Seattle. I don't think a Green Bay, the Vikings or redskins have got it in them.

I backed the Pats this morning - I'm already on the Steelers at huge prices. I'm happy with my position. I can see the Pats sneaking last the Chiefs at home before facing the steelers at home in AFC championship game

I think all teams(minus Redskins,Texans,Chiefs,Vikings and Bengals can win the title.

My favorite is Carolina, but they are favorite so it`s a cheap call now. But are they value? who knows.

Carolina have obviously been the most consistent team all year and are strong on both sides of the ball. Couldn`t have them at the price now though. Of the other main contenders, Manning is past his sell by date, Brady relies on Gronkowski to much, Steelers are totally inconsistent, so I rule them 3 out. Might be a year for a big surprise, but I like Seattle. Defense wins championships and all that and that will do for me!!

I final between Pittsburg-Carolina.

When we talk about Pats, it all depends on Brady, i hope is doing well, but you have to play at your best in the playoff, and he have been way off for the past 2-3 games.

Might be a year for a big surprise, but I like Seattle. Defense wins championships and all that and that will do for me!!
...
i agree it`s hard to call a favorite this year, and off course Seattle is among the big contenders, especially after their win against Arizona.

It really is great to have so many in contention but question marks against them all.

If Seattle had home field advantage they would be clear favs and waltz to Superbowl, but they got going too late and I just think 3 back to back road games may be a step too far.   Panthers are most likely team from NFC but that is why they are favs.

In AFC... heaven knows.

Anyone who backs Seattle at 6/1 to win the super bowl wants their heads looked at.

They will have to go to Minnesota/Carolina and probably Arizona even before the super bowl.

This team isn't as good as the past two years when they had home field advantage in the play offs.

In the NFC a championship last year - in Seattle - they got outplayed by Green Bay and needed a fake field goal, a on side kick that Green Bay completely messed up and some awful play calls from Green Bay in order to advance. And that team 12 months ago are better than this one.

Defence? Big Ben put up 500 yards on the Seahawks a few weeks ago. Their secondary has been very iffy all season long

Yes, if you are not on Seattle at bigger prices you would likely be better betting them round by round if you fancy them

Viking - 5/12
Carolina - 5/4
Arizona - 10/11

Superbowl - 10/11

Works out over 11/1

Obviously depending how well they do and other results the likely odds would fluctuate.

Would you both be happy to lay the 7.8 and 8.0 I have queuing up on the outright winner market then?

Willing to stick up as much up there @ 8.0 as anyone is willing to lay.

All you gotta do is back the Seahawks each week to cover the money in an accumulator style bet.

This should appeal to you in particular Clay given your post above.

Seattle have given up fewest points of any side so i don't think saying they have a decent defence is exactly controversial.

Let's have a look shall we

They gave up
27 to Green Bay
27 to Cincinnati
27 to Carolina
39 to Arizona
30 to Pittsburgh

That's not including giving up 34 and 23 to the Rams

The Seahawks have played against a back up QB for the Bears, back up for the Cowboys, back for the 49ers, back up for the Ravens, back up for the Browns........

I'm sorry but you can't twist it all you like......this defence is no where near as good as the past three years

Studious......I have already taken money on Seattle at lower than 8 so no thanks on your offer.
But word of advice......just back them as they go, you will get get better odds if they win the super bowl. HTH

So lay the 7.8 and 8.0 then no?  You're saying that 6/1 backers need their heads checked....probably means you make them what....4pts bigger than that at least?

As Swardean also probably correctly points out you can back them to win each week in a roll up accumulator and it will almost certainly equal more than 7.8...so laying them is almost an arb/free bet against the accumulator anyway.

What's the problem?

i'm not twisting anything just pointing out a fact. they certainly aren't as good as last season but still not bad.

I just cant believe Arizona favs on here!!Especially after Sunday.And losing the leading defenseman week before....Lots of good debate though chaps.

Jedi....I wouldn't read anything at all into Sunday's game. It's like the Seahawks lost easily to the Rams the week before. It's meaningless

Studious, you are right, you need your head examined

Yet you won't lay a price that you say any backer needs their head examined to take? Even when you're being offered a seemingly free bet by the market if your calculations are correct?

Now who's head needs examining

And you want to bet under a price that we have kindly explained to you can be enhanced if you back them every week until the super bowl in singles.

I'm up my my neck in super bowl bets.
But for the life of me I would not take under the odds on a bet that I could get better odds doing it a different way.

I suggest you have a look at your betting strategy.

1.42 x 2.0 x 1.62 x 1.68 (Vikes + Panthers +  + AFC Champions) = 6.7/1 (with 4 lots of commission having to be paid instead of one)...current market price virtually exactly the same.

Those are the prices that will be on offer once they beat the Vikings by 14+ which is a total mismatch and a game which will create a surge for them price wise and then the subsequent prices assuming they beat the Panthers which obviously I'm expecting them to if I'm betting them to win the SB.

That's why I'm taking 7.8 on here....that is also why the many minds that form the markets on here only make them 7/1 and not 10/1+ as suggested above...or is the collective knowledge and hence the formation of the price on here that stupid and you that clever you think.

Anyway - said my piece. Good Luck people.

(1.62 price vs most likely the Cards though we musn't count out Rogers even with that shocker of a receiving corp I guess)

Count them out Studious...... believe me

lol Grayhawk agreed unfortunately....I bet them pre season so I've done very well with that one @ 8/1....now 28/1 and in the playoffs!!!

I think we'll see a better performance from Lacy and the O/Line this weekend to just about get them past the Skins aided with some Rogers mastery....from then onwards they look up the proverbial creek without the olde paddle!

Ditto ......i backed them all off season ......

I can't even see them beating an on the rise Redskins....Packers invariably have trouble covering tight ends and can see Jordan Reed having his way.

Clay D
Surely you cannot just ignore the result entirely,if Cards werent interested in Match,therefore No 1 seed they wouldnt have started with C Palmer and a few others,granted after game was gone they eased maybe exaggerating scoreline but they turned up ready to rock,and the Seahawks gave them a right old going over...
Cant have no effect on them either,they must be questioning a few things this week they werent prior to Sunday..
Maybe im biased as on Panthers fairly big from very early this season,and i think they would be worthy Favs at this stage.Barring anymore injuries..
Cheers.

Snap we did the same thing.  Only bet I had outright from either conference was them.  Losing Jordy was huge in the end ultimately.  The best corner of any opposition would have been on him and with the possible double team on  to boot - would have given Cobb and Adams a chance to grow as receivers + enable the deep threat they no longer have opening up the short field.  Adams has been a bitter disappointment.

A real shame but I still think they can beat Washington.  Rogers can still make plays from nothing as is his way, Lacy seems to step up a tad when really needed and their banged up defence gets a few back this week I think.

Cousins still has to do in a big game.  Crucial factor.  The only real pressure game he's had to play so far was when they were playing the Eagles a few weeks back and he didn't do anything special there.  Missed a few throws, didn't pull the trigger once or twice when he should have and largely found very open receivers for nearly all his 10yard+ completetios....the scoreline was comfortable as the Eagles shot themselves in the foot with penalties and turnovers.

Rogers vs Cousins...playoff time....I believe!! (just!)

jedi sophie 05 Jan 16 21:15 Joined: 18 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 96 | Blogger: jedi sophie's blog

' Surely you cannot just ignore the result entirely,if Cards werent interested in Match,therefore No 1 seed they wouldnt have started with C Palmer and a few others,granted after game was gone they eased maybe exaggerating scoreline but they turned up ready to rock,and the Seahawks gave them a right old going over...
Cant have no effect on them either,they must be questioning a few things this week they werent prior to Sunday.. '

Spot on - once they Hawks had outclassed them for 30mins Arians started pulling starters, saving face and then came out with the baloney after the game....oh we didn't bother with that one today. 

Absolutely no reason to dump that game given potential homefield advantage + a TWO week rest to come - if they were playing the following week absolutely can see it but they were never going to be...they just got shown up by a superior team who have been by and large holding back waiting for the only part of the season that matters while the Cardinals have red lined all year.

Jedi/studious you can't gave it both ways, so you are ignoring the week before when the Seahawks were awful against the Rams and got beat easily?
What do you put that down to?
Any team that is swept by the Rams...........really super bowl winners?......I mean, come on

Oh that's right, Seahawks been holding themselves back until the later part of the season......never heard so much nonsense.....nothing to do with their dreadful offensive line that had seen Wilson scrambling for his life when up against a decent D, or their secondary that has been poor, or the fact that they lost to packers, bengals, panthers, cardinals et al, oh yeah they really didn't want home field advantage in the play off......oh no

i would agree with you about Arizona playing fast and loose with the reality of that loss but to say the Seattle were "holding back" during the regular season is a bit ridiculous.
why would you hold back and make yourself the 2nd lowest ranked seed? There are a few mitigating factors as to why they were not firing in the early rounds but it certainly wasn't a tactic. Limping past Dallas kept their season alive but they have looked way better since.

Holding back probably not the right terminology, my bad.  My thoughts better explained below (this is from something I send around weekly to friends who  follow me in on the NFL)....shoot me down for whatever it contains but that's my thought process in detail.  Not going to write any more on it after this post - we all have our views which makes the game what it is. Good Luck to everybody in the playoffs whatever teams you're on.

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' Once they beat the Vikings by 14+ ( a game coincidentally they should be around 1.25 to win not the early installed 1.47 as it's a total mismatch) the market will move dramatically for them.  Arizona and Carson Palmer wouldn't beat them in a playoff game in a month of Sundays. 

All this about they didn't try to win last weekend - they tried for 25mins - were getting pulverised and then Arians saved his team from embarrassment by pulling starters and creating a nice little story afterwards about their intentions.  No way would he have wanted to get beat up like that with a bye week to come.

You wait and see how a 36yo QB who has won nothing in his career bar a Heisman plays comes crunch time vs a team choc full of players who have been there done that 2 seasons on the bounce...that's assuming Arizona even make the conference final.  The result won't be any different so I have no worries there.

Which leaves just the Panthers.  A very good team but fortunately for us a team with an inferior QB to Wilson, two very significant injuries in the secondary in the last two weeks +  a knock against their run game (their RB Stewart's status currently unknown) vs a team who have no fear in the playoffs and are looking likely completely healthy for the first time all year bar Jimmy Graham.

People have questioned the defence of the Seahawks this year discounting two key factors – injuries and motivation.

By the time it faces the Panthers it will contain, Sherman, Okung, Bennett, Avril, Irvin, Chancellor and Earl Thomas (if that wasn't enough they have K.J Wright and Jeremy Lane sitting there too). 

This is the best defence in the game presently when it’s all there by a stretch - it just hasn't all been there virtually once this season bar now.

The motivation point is crucially it won’t be 'chilling it's beans' as they have done have for half the season - like their pathetic effort two weeks ago against St Louis where it was beyond patently obvious they were playing at not even half speed simply saving themselves for a likely 3 stretch road run before the SB itself.  I’m still kicking myself for not backing the Rams that week – 7/1 ffs given what I’ve seen the Seahawks do all season I felt it was possible but left it given the rams literally have zero passing game - they somehow managed it anyway.  Cost us a right few quid there.

There are teams that have red lined themselves all season like the Cardinals and then there is Seattle - waiting for the 4 games of the season that actually count. 
You could say the way they have approached the regular season displays arrogance...and you'd be right....but when you're as good as they are....it's hard not to be I guess.  Let's hope their confidence in themselves has not been misplaced.

They knew they would always make the playoffs but not be seeded 1 or 2 from week 7 and have saved themselves accordingly since in my view - winning when needed and not killing themselves in tough spots when already injury ridden when not..  Last week was a timely reminder to the rest of the league of what they still are – all achieved without Lynch who is due back next week.  It couldn’t have worked out better for us really.

It was also a reminder of the fact Wilson is now an outstanding QB - a better more complete player in every way than the QB who has led them to the last two superbowls.

The Panthers will be their one big test but I think the Seahawks at their top level are better in every department so they should take that one in what will be a great game.  I only hope that should we get the W they don’t pick up any significant injuries – it’s bound to be a bruiser of an encounter.

So eventhough we are already on at the double figure prices available of 5 or 6 weeks ago when everyone was panicking about them even making the playoffs (despite the fact they clearly were foot off the gas half the time) – the advice is a press up at the 6/1 currently available on the High St and 7’s on the exchanges.  They’ll be no bigger than 2/1 by the time the conference finals come along.

As I’ve said in previous correspondence – I have and still find the AFC  hard to call and haven’t involved myself there.  Gutted I didn’t play up the 80/1 Chiefs when I advised the 8/1 about them to win their division back in week 7 – can’t do anything about that now though so let’s hope they don’t come through or it’ll be a bitter pill to swallow given the Bengals overtime loss in week 16 denying us the 8/1 that week and Manning coming in from know where this week to deny the winner we should have collected on.

Nobody in the NFC will want to play Seattle and anybody who has bet Carolina will be wanting them out, the quicker the better. Their defence may not have played as well this season as in the past, but I will be surprised if they don`t step up to the plate and face the "bigger" challenge now that the real competition begins. The possibility that accumulative odds during play offs may prove bigger is a valid point, but not guaranteed. Depends on how results fall and there are no "gimmies" in Play Offs as we all know. They would be 4/9 if playing one of the "rags" from the AFC in SB and that`s a strong possibility in my opinion.

Carolina are worthy favourites though and as earlier stated are without doubt the best regular season team. The big question are did they peak too soon and can they keep it going for another 3 games?

Answers on a Post Card from the guy who needs his head examined

Nobody in the NFC will want to play Seattle and anybody who has bet Carolina will be wanting them out, the quicker the better.

I'm on Carolina, and without a shadow of a doubt... Go Vikes!!!

seems strange that the seahawks at vikings is a noon kick off local time.  seems
a bit unfair on seattle where it will only be 10am. i guess the great god of tv has dictated this.

I don't even k ow where to start with some of this nonsense.

Let's start with studious. He seems to be under the impression that Seattle go to Arizona and then Carolina. No no no. Other way around. It will be Carolina followed by Arizona/Washington or Green Bay.

Let us just state what the Seahawks face, and potentially face.

On Sunday the kick off at noon local time, 10am Seattle time. The temperatures forecast are nothing short of brutal. If the temperature is correct then it will be in the top ten coldest play off game of all time. Whether it is or not is a mute point, suffice to say it will be brutal conditions.

No one knows who Seattle's running back will be. Will it be lynch or the 3rd or 4th string running backs? If it is lynch will he actually be fit or completely rusty or just pure gone at the game.

Assuming the come through Sunday. They will then travel way across country yo another time zone to take on Carolina. Thus will be a brutal game for differing reasons. It will be physical and no hiding place for anyone. Even if Seattle survive the Carolina game it would be odds against that they go so with suffering injuries and tiredness.

They survive Carolina and then they have to travel to the desert and face Arizona. A team that has already shredded them this season. The PR Seahawks fans in here talk about a meaningless game that took place on Sunday with nada at stake but ignore the earlier encounter, in Seattle, with lots at stake.
In the game in Seattle, Carson Palmer marched Arizona up and down the field at will. The Seahawks just couldn't stop Arizona. In fact letting up only 39 points flattered Seattle. Palmer said on the field after the game that it was disappointed he didn't put up 50 points.

Also I've had a few people accept that this team isn't as good as last year but they ignore the championship game last year when Green Bay dominated them and chucked it away. And that wasn't an elite Green Bay team.

What happened two weeks ago against the Rams? A win there would have secured the 5th seed for Seattle

If people fancy Seattle to win the super bowl good luck to them. But to argue they are value is about as deluded as it comes. To ignore their obvious flaws is the fast track to the betting poorhouse.

A better Seattle team than this, much better team, went to Atlanta in their last road play off game and laid an egg for most of the game.

Clay for someone who completely talks nonsense at the best of times ( never mind your massive massive massive bet c rap that you come out with ) you seem to tell everybody that doesn't agree with you that they are talking nonsense.

You hate Seattle but they Atlanta game has absolutely nothing to do with now - more nonsense from the king of nonsense.  Also to say that Seattle team that played Atlanta is better than now is simply not true.  That game was three years ago , part of the 2012/2013 season, that Seattle team was full of rookies including Russell Wilson.  That was the game were they cam of age despite losing narrowly by two points to a late field goal.  This Seattle team is much more experienced with ( behind Cam ) the best qb of the season. To say Seattle were much better three years ago than now is laughable.

Also the game against the Cardinals this year , Seattle never turned up in the first half.  They ended up with a big deficit which they clawed back but ultimately lost.  They second half they battered the cardinals o - line with sack after sack on Palmer.  If Seattle end up travelling to the desert again in the playoffs they will win , no doubt imo

hardly nonsense pointing out that going to Minneapolis then (probably) Charlotte & Phoenix is a huge ask.
It's pretty easy to look at Seattle from whichever perspective you want at the moment but 4th ranked offence
and 2nd ranked defence for a team that has had an indifferent season results wise reads quite well along with plenty other stats too.
Stats can always be picked apart tho and getting to play such a stinking 49ers side twice is bound to help your numbers

i had a quick check back to see what the kick off time was in early December when the Seahawks went to Minnesota and battered them.
It was noon!

It is also possible although unlikely Seattle could host the Championship game if Green Bay come through..........

Sorry I meant go to Green Bay!!

Still no mention from the Seahawk lovers of last season's NFC championship game or the game against the Rams two weeks ago.

But now it's OK for Seattle not to turn up in the first half in a game that mattered against the cardinals but not ok for the cardinals not to turn up in a game that meant nothing. Nada. Zilch. Ok I get it now

Who said it was all ok???  People are just giving their opinions which you can't seem to take.  And for the record I am no seattle fan, I'm a packer fan and what happened last year still makes me sick but hey that's sport.  Last season's NFC championship game has absolutely no bearing on this year.

dlarssonf - confident the Pack will turn it around on offense?

Firstly you need to get your facts right. Seattle led going into the 4th quarter on the back of two turnovers against Arizona in November. Before Palmer took them on a 10 play 85 yard drive to take the lead which they subsequently extended.

The championship game does gave a bearing as a) Seattle were a better team last year b) they were at home and c) Green Bay were not as good as the Carolina or Arizona of this year.

Last year Sherman never moved from his corner. They trusted the other corner. The could play man on man without the need to double up. This year has been all change. No trust in the other corner. He's been taken to the cleaners a few times. Safeties having to come over and cover and leaving big gaps in the middle for tight ends to exploit. Seattle have had an awful time covering tight ends over the middle this year. Plus Sherman has moved about more this year, trying to cover the best wideout.

Clay - I don't like the Seahawks either but I respect them and come on man to pick every hole possible is a little bit below the belt. The Patriots got smashed to pieces last season by the Chiefs yet still won the Superbowl - do people focus on that loss or the strong regular season they had?

All over the Cowboys next season given their schedule in the hope the Romo somehow gets through the season.

ClayDavis    06 Jan 16 17:31 
Firstly you need to get your facts right. Seattle led going into the 4th quarter on the back of two turnovers against Arizona in November. Before Palmer took them on a 10 play 85 yard drive to take the lead which they subsequently extended.

I never said otherwise , I hope that helps!!! Right I am done getting into debate's with you Clay because it's like taking to the wall.

dlarssonf - confident the Pack will turn it around on offense?

is Nelson still out?

Swagger    06 Jan 16 17:27 
dlarssonf - confident the Pack will turn it around on offense?

Hey Swagger , been honest I have no faith in them at the moment as much as it hurts to say.  The O-line is non existent , coupled with this and the wide receivers not getting any seperation , Rodgers confidence is shot to pieces.

Lacy is an enigma at the moment , plays well one game and then horrific the next.  I hope the turn it around because at the moment it's a hard watch but sure we will still cheer them on until the bitter end

Seattle are the team for me in the NFC , yes the have a hard road but not impossible.  In the AFC , I think Denver are not getting much respect but that defence is excellent

ClayD seems to think anyone who says anything even slightly in the positive about the Seahawks is a "fan"
He must have had a traumatic experience in Seattle or had his cafe put out of business by a Starbucks or something.

Help2    06 Jan 16 17:37 
dlarssonf - confident the Pack will turn it around on offense?

is Nelson still out?

Just replied there help2!!!  Nelson is gone for the whole season unfortunately , he was a big loss which is looking bigger as each week passes.  You a packer fan???

Swagger    06 Jan 16 17:32 
Clay - I don't like the Seahawks either but I respect them and come on man to pick every hole possible is a little bit below the belt. The Patriots got smashed to pieces last season by the Chiefs yet still won the Superbowl - do people focus on that loss or the strong regular season they had?

All over the Cowboys next season given their schedule in the hope the Romo Love somehow gets through the season.

Dallas definitely have a very good team swagger and if the injuries are kinder next year they have a great chance.  I worry over Hardy though - yes he is a good player but an out and out s cumbag  - think he is more hassle off the pitch than it's worth.  Good luck next year swagger because i know it's not easy been a cowboy at times

Swagger - Johnny football wants to go to Dallas

dlarrsonf...bet in you worst nightmare you never thought an Aaron Rodgers led and Mike McCarthy coached offence would ever become boring

#shocked

grayhawk    06 Jan 16 18:03 
dlarrsonf...bet in you worst nightmare you never thought an Aaron Rodgers led and Mike McCarthy coached offence would ever become boring Sad

#shocked

Never grayhawk , it's sad really from a Rodgers point of view because the fellow should be challenging for superbowl rings with the talent he has - yet the years keep slipping by!!!  But this year has been a disaster , as you say could never imagine us playing the way we are starting to wonder is there more going on behind the scenes but who knows

Two weeks ago Rodgers stood at the podium after a game and said......" we have to get Abbrederis on the field more - he makes plays "

I think he's been on the field for two ( or might be one ) plays from scrimmage since.....hmmmmm.....is McCarthy sending a message

Abbrederis and Janis need more game time , if for nothing else to freshen things up!!! You would like to think McCarthy is not sending a message but who knows , but surely he can even see that it's been a disaster since the tonking in Denver

By all accounts Rodgers is a fan of Abbrederis ( good on the practice field,intelligent route runner who knows how to get open ) and the opposite of Janis ( big and raw who can't run the route tree ) but the latter has something the packers are short of in ALL areas.....SPEED

Can't understand why they don't put Janis in for say half a dozen plays a game and have him run deep and at least open up some underneath stuff for others.....opposing defences have no respect at all for the deep ball....

I'm not saying he would catch it even if you went his way mind - the last time they tried about three or four games ago Rodgers was livid cos he turned the wrong way

Yeah very true grayhawk but the only way to find out is give him a chance , he needs experience.  Absolutely no harm giving him some snaps as what is happening now is beyond depressing.

I know Nelson out was tough for Cobb because he gets most of the attention but for me he has been a huge disappointment

Yep him and Adams both.....as you say what harm can it do.

Jan 6, 2016 -- 5:02PM, ClayDavis wrote:

Still no mention from the Seahawk lovers of last season's NFC championship game or the game against the Rams two weeks ago.But now it's OK for Seattle not to turn up in the first half in a game that mattered against the cardinals but not ok for the cardinals not to turn up in a game that meant nothing. Nada. Zilch. Ok I get it now

Hi Clay, you know I am seahawks fan but I will try to be objective.

I am not sure what last years championship game has to do with anything.   They didn't play great that day but won the game.  Any team can have off days but over the season they were the best team in the NFC.

With regard to the Rams game, I share the view that the game was meaningless and hence Seattle just didn't turn up.   This team has a habit of only winning/performing when they need to.

But I also agree with you that the Arizona game was meaningless (almost for them) and I am disregarding that result and should they meet in the playoffs it will be a completely different game.

The likely playoff schedule looks as tough as it gets and if they win it they will deserve it.   I think there is no value at 6/1 but I am not sure I can name a team that I would want to bet at 6/1 at the moment.   It is that open that they have a better chance than most.

Clay my friend, Were you bullied at school?

Greyhawk / dlarssonf - I have followed American Football very closely since the Superbowl of 2010 which was the first game I watched so I won't know as much as most people on here but I have a good eye for sport generally and we all have opinions. I am interested to know what you guys thought the Packers were like that season leading up to the Playoffs? Even without the deep threat of Nelson to be double teamed etc, is there any way the offense could come alive as the defense is playing really well?

Clay - Well the 'Boys need a backup QB in my view it's more important than a safety/cornerback issues and everything else as the Cowboys can't chance a repeat of this season with the defense playing really well but the state of the offense without the Romo losing 11 out of 12 games! I mean that's just unacceptable. Manziel and RG3 would bother be inately better than the state of what the fans had to put up with from the backups this season but again their characters could unsettle the players. Regards Hardy, I don't think he had too much of a negative influence on the actual team as the defense played well and I would expect him to produce more and have a strong season next term wherever that be.

Even though Swardean is a Seahawk he is a good lad and always objective

Last season I felt it was much easier to cut it down to a max of 3-4 possible winners way before the play offs whereas I find it very hard to call this year.

My own view is that the AFC Championship game will be Denver vs the Chiefs and the NFC will be Arizona / Green Bay vs Seattle.

I will give my reasons. As dlarssonf has said, the Denver defense isn't getting that much respect when it was been excellent pretty much all season. If Denver can establish the run then they must have a strong chance with their excellent defense and home field advantage but you would have to question their QB situation. Peyton Manning isn't getting any younger but given his experience he is surely able to read what defenses are being shown to him on every play so he will know more often than not when to go with a run play or passing play - I think their chances will basically come down to his ability to read the game and establish the run. As obviously if they establish the run then it will create much easier passes for him to make. I think the Patriots are running out of juice, didn't Edelman suffer the same injury as Dez Bryant - the latter came back too soon and hasn't been the same player this season so I would question his productivity in the playoffs. Teams can double team the Gronk and reduce his output and I just don't think they have enough going for them to get it done this season.

Wilson has arguably been the best QB for the past 2 months he has really stepped up his game - I think the Seahawks will beat the Vikings they are just a better team and Bridgewater looks like a bit of an accident waiting to happen against a good defense and I also fancy them to beat the Panthers - I actually think the only team in their way is the Packers at Lambeau. The Pack have badly underperformed lately but I still can't get out of my head last season that they were pretty average heading into the play offs only for Rodgers with one fit leg being able to beat the Cowboys who were in excellent form and then for 55 minutes completely dominate the Seahawks on the road when I haven't seen anyone else do that in recent years only to lose due to that bonehead who dropped the ball from the onside kick! But that performance at Seattle was mesmerising. The Packers will be as haunted by that as the Seahawks are of last seasons Superbowl interception and if the Pack beat the Redskins (which I think they will) and Arizona (hard to see based on their last game but it could happen) then they would have Seattle at home in the Championship game. I have watched the Panthers a lot this season and I think they have more weaknesses than people think, it's just that most teams they have played simply haven't been good enough to exploit them and take their chances when presented their way. E.g. the Giants inexplicably leaving 17 points in the field in the first half alone. Yes they edged past Seattle earlier in the season but the Seahawks are playing much better now and even thought they arguably aren't as strong as they were last season I still think they are a stronger football team than the Panthers.

I know you are all over the Steelers Clay and I am a big fan of the way they play but I just think their secondary give up too many big plays and I just think good teams will gut them apart when it really matters. I do think the Steelers have great Superbowl potential, if not this season then certainly the next few years during which time the secondary will get stronger.

Also Sanders and Thomas are quality receivers, if Rodgers had those guys the Pack would be back! I think Denver have a lot going for them

Very fair write up swagger and I take on board your points about the Steelers secondary. But who in the AFC is capable of picking it apart?
Manning? No one knows. Brady yes if Pats were healthy but that's a big if. Bengals have a back up. Chiefs gave been a bit of a dink and dunk offence.
So they all have their issues. Yet there is no team in the AFC with an explosive offence like the Steelers and when it clicks they will be able to beat anyone.
They already put up the most amount of yards that the Denver D conceeded all season only a few weeks ago.
For instance, on Sunday, I think the Steelers will go for the Bengals throat straight away and try and turn it into a shootout. I think they will say to the Bengals if you can live with our passing attack then you deserve to continue in the play offs. P.s I think over could be a great bet in Pitt v bengals game for that reason

i would be right with you on overs in Cincinnati but going to have to keep a close eye on the weather.
It's looking like it may well be played in the wet on Sat night.
A bit early for accurate forecasting and depends which forecast you look at tho.

Great thread, enjoyed the read. The next couple of weeks are as good as it gets for a nfl fan, some fantastic match ups, no doubt a shock somewhere! Personally, got some 16s Arizona - SB  and 12s Pittsburgh - AFC, the latter ain't a strong fancy, but a certain uk online bookie still had them at 12s for a few mins after they had took the last play off slot, might lay it off if they beat Cincinnati. Enjoy it chaps cos September is a long way off...

Fair points Clay. I suppose the counter-argument is if teams can establish the run against the Steelers then they would have to cover the rush more and give the receivers more chances over the top down the field but I think the Steelers have a pretty strong rush defense? I was just perplexed in a few games when teams just marched down and torched them, e.g. I felt they had the Seahawks game under control but they looked vulnerable through the air which was exposed in the second half. I heard that C J Anderson is feeling fully healthy of niggles etc for the first time all season, Hillman is explosive and Sanders and Thomas are very good receivers - if Manning can roll back the years I think they will be too strong for the Steelers at home. That said I really enjoy watching the Steelers play and it is wide open - as Bankit states, it really is a greay time as an NFL fan and basically enjoy the show!

What price do you think Seattle would be away to the Panthers?

Also, what happened to Ty Montgomerie, is he still injured? I had hoped he would provide the deep threat for the Pack but he must be injured

Have any of you guys/girls been to the Hippodrome in Leicester Square to watch the American Football? I stumbled upon it I think from week 2 last season as myself and a few friends wanted to watch the later games and as busy back then but I have seen it grow more and more popular. They show every single game - it is just a fantastic venue to watch the games, food and drink very reasonably priced as well and it is just a great laugh - highly recommended for anyone who is at a loose end and doesn't know where to catch the games.

Seattle @ panthers.... Seattle would be 13/8 - 7/4.. IMO.

Swagger..that season the Packers were a team nobody wanted to face going into the play offs, they just had to win their last two games for a 10-6 record to punch their ticket.

They got off to one of their regular slow starts...falling to a 3-3 record on the back of two overtime field gold losses....the three losses in the second half of the season were by 3 points on the road to the number one seed Falcons,by four points on the road to Detroit where Rodgers left the game early with a concussion and the following week by 4 points at New England with a back up QB Flynn where McCarthy came out with his now famous quote before the game " we're nobodys underdog ".....in their six losses the biggest margin of defeat was FOUR points

Packers went into them play offs full of confidence feeling they could beat anybody anywhere even when they had to return to Atlanta cos they came out of that game knowing they left a fair few points on the field that day ( Rodgers fumbling on the goal line in one instance )...the offence was playing at a high level and Rodgers took off in the play offs......the defence were playing well and had a knack of always seeming to force a turnover when they were desperate for one.

The market also had confidence in the Packers cos they were one of the favourites heading into the post season even though they were the No 6 seed... ( can't remember the exact prices )

This season i have no confidence the offence will be able to turn it around....when you get to this point in the season you generally are what you've put on tape and we can all see they have been poor ( although it can be done.....the Colts defence did it in their Superbowl year - everybody ran all over them till safety Bob Sanders came back from injury in the play offs and they stoned all opponents )....it just doesn't look like an Aaron Rodgers led offence and he's played his worst football since he became the starter.....even last week on his late endzone interception James Jones had 6 or 7 yards to the outside for Rodgers to give him a TD but inexplicably he threw it inside, you would NEVER see Rodgers do that in seasons past.

It's a pity cos as you say the defence is playing well enough and with a usual Packers offence i would still fancy them to win it all.....this year i personally think they have no chance


Oh and yes Ty Montgomery has been out since around week 6 or 7.....they kept on thinking every week he would return but put him on IR a couple of weeks back.

Bankit...gotta disgaree there mate...i'll be shocked if the Seahawks are that big....be nearer to EVs 11-10 in my opinion....obviously how they look on national tv against the Vikings will be factored in.

grayhawk - immense knowledge and very information many thanks. Yes I remember the inside throw aimed for James Jones which got intercepted versus the Vikings, just couldn't believe it as like you state Aaron Rodgers just doesn't do that! It's not looking good for the Packers then really. Who do you fancy out of interest?

* very informative

Arizona or Seattle for me Swagger

Oh and i don't keep it all in my head....google is always good for prompting me

Yep Swagger , grayhawk has summed up the 2010 season spot on but I will just add that the packers never lost a game by more than 4 points all season and they are still they only team since the merger to achieve this!!!!

It was actually the 2009 season that Aaron Rodgers came of age and it was a superbowl that definitely got away.  The defence was awful that year but the packers managed to get to the wild card round against the Cardinals in the desert, one of the greatest games ever for me. Packers found themselves in a 17 - 0 hole after the first quarter mainly due to two special teams fumbles

But Rodgers dragged Green bay back with some sensational plays , the chap was immense , it was just a pity that Kurt Warner was having the game of his life too.  It went to overtime and it really was a case of who won the toss.  The cardinals did and scored a td to win 51 - 45 but I believe that if the packers had of won that game they would have won the superbowl

Oh and good write up swagger!!!

Yep i forgot to add good write up Swagger....along with plenty of others on here

Threads are so much better when they're like this one....good football discussion.....i tend to stay away from many threads due to infantile comments...just can't be arsed with it.

Just replied there help2!!!  Nelson is gone for the whole season unfortunately , he was a big loss which is looking bigger as each week passes.  You a packer fan???

I prefer the packers over the rest, yes.

But i think the lose of Nelson will hurt Rodgers, but next year, it will be packers years

For me Carolina with their homefield advantage, is the team to beat this year.  But i would not touch them, unless their price rises alot.

Seattle are a big treat, Arizona also...

The big question in my head is what kind of a Brady will we see in the playoff.. i have heard he is injured, something serious or just a big hit from Sueh as always?

New england is the team to beat, if Brady is in topform...

AFC is also hard to pick, this years playoff is a lottery to me, and i like it that way all teams can make it to the final... but for some reason i doubt the Redskins,Bengals,Houston and Chiefs.

I think the Minny v Seahawks game is a bit of a trap.

I watched the NBC and ESPN preview programmes today and not one of the experts predicted the game to be less that a 7 point Seahawks win.
I also looked at some of the national newspapers, still no one tipping a Minny win.
The public are all over Seahawks.
So why is Vegas only -5? Why not -7?
Vegas is not stupid

the weather is bound to be a big factor and not likely to be in favour of Seattle you would think, unless Lynch has some sort of miraculous return. Especially if it is windy as well as freezing.
Throw in the kick off time & the obvious home field advantage then -5 doesn't look stupid at all.
If anyone is really supremely confident about any of these games I would urge them to sit down and have another good think.
A really excellent and intriguing set of fixtures but a lot of punting conundrums.

Wilson played for Wisconsin. So being a badger I don't think the weather will bother him one tiny bit

He has played some cold ones and never seen a problem, indeed the weather could be more of an issue for Teddy.   They are forecasting -14C at KO with wind chill making it worse. 

i was thinking it would be more of a problem for the receivers than the QB. they didn't like that wet ball vs the Rams and very cold weather makes for a slippery ball.
same for both teams of course but the Hawks have been enjoying the aerial route lately.
i can't see Lynch being used much unless things look desperate but having him on the field at all will keep the Vikes wondering.
Wilson rushing for more than 33.5 is quite appealing.

Lynch out

got to wonder if Lynch playing was ever actually a possibility or just a bluff.

I thought I was excited and could not sleep, you boys up before me!!