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bankit
15 Sep 15 23:30
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 14
| Topic/replies: 703 | Blogger: bankit's blog
To my amazement Cleveland are slight dogs at home to Tennessee. The ultimate mug approach to football betting is to have your thinking swayed by one result. I considered Cleveland likely to be a spirited competitor in a tough division as I previewed the season.In contrast I thought Tennessee would rookie QB and all, be set for a struggle. The rout of a poorly coached Tampa Bay team, has not changed my opinion. Tennessee are poorly coached themselves,and whatever the hype machine suggests about their QB, they should not be favourites in Cleveland. Offer the mugs your thanks and have a decent bet.

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By:
Still standing
When: 17 Sep 15 20:16
After one game, I'm at a loss to see how anybody can say a team is poorly coached.  Ken Whisenhut only won a super bowl with Pittsburgh as their O co-ordinator, and he was the head coach of Arizona when they went to the superbowl. Is your standout bet based on teams being poorly coached after one game, and Cleveland being spirited ?  You talk about not having a bet opinion swayed by one result, but you base your pick partly on a team being poorly coached after one result.

Why do you say Mariotta is set to struggle.  A coach with superbowl experience says he's good enough to start for him. Is Ken W a mug ?
By:
bankit
When: 18 Sep 15 00:14
I based my opinion that Tennessee are poorly coached on their record last year and my broader thoughts on Ken Whisenhunt as a head coach.Last week on another thread I spoke of Jeff Fisher as a fantastic coach, an opinion I formed over a number of years. The point I was trying to make is that you cannot and should not let your analysis of any game be influenced by one result, and that is exactly what I feel oddsmakers have done here. If this fixture had been scheduled for week one, I don't think there is any chance that Tennessee would have been favourites. Cleveland suffer a loss in week one , Tennessee win, and we are looking at the road team as favourites. My thoughts that Mariotta will stuggle are based on his rookie status, his inadequate supporting cast,and most importantly my belief that he is not that talented. I see him maturing into a solid starter,but no more,and most relevant for the games coming up, the maturation process will take time.In my opinion Cleveland should be favourites by 3.5, but I am not predicting a blow out win or anything of the kind. What I am saying is that the line on this game is wrong, the reason for this being that oddsmakers know that bettors are inclined to let one result shape their judgement.
By:
Still standing
When: 19 Sep 15 16:02
Fair enough bankit.  The only way to beat the spread  in MO is to find a line you think is wrong for solid reasons and bet against it.  You've laid out your analysis very nicely why you think this line is wrong.  We disagree on Coach W, and how Cleveland being a spirited competitor holds any weight, but that's just my opinions vs yours.  Nice write up.
By:
bankit
When: 19 Sep 15 18:47
Cheers Still Standing ! It would be good if at least this part of the forum could allow some reasoned discussion and debate. Not got a particular down on KW , just think that being a star coach on one side of the ball, doesn't always translate to being a good head coach. Losing a fortune  thanks to Norv Turner  does that to you.
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 17:02
Only bet so far for this weekend is Seattle +3.5.    Can't wait for that game
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 17:03
Calm down Swardean there's still over eight hours to go Grin
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 17:13
Can't calm down it almost a must win for us after last weekLaugh

No seriously perhaps not a game to get involved with but the 1/2 a point over 3 tempted me in.   Plus knew Clay would be on Packers.  Got some beers in and no work tomorrow.   Need to ensure dont start on the beers to early!!
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 17:31
Grin I won't be betting on the outcome.....

Bulaga being out worries me.......Offensive line was a big strength last year and his replacement struggled in the pre season coming off a years injury

Can the Packers keep Lynch in check  ( especially in the 4th after he's worn defences down ) is the key to the game.
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 17:33
Three good match ups in a row we have tonight Happy
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 17:33
* on Sky
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 17:40
That is my theory, that Seattle can dominate the time of possession and grind them down with the run.   We will see.  Whatever happens can usually guarantee a good game between these two and both will be there come playoffs

Outside this game, may just have a SU double on patriots, eagles. GL
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 17:57
I've backed the Cards on moneyline @ 1.86....no bet on first tv game but will be cheering the Bills on

Good luck everyone
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 15 17:59
Am I missing something here? Tom Brady at 2.1 against Tyrod Taylor....
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 18:02
Put like that it doesn't half seem like a gift Sudoku Grin..but hoping that Bills D has a big say in the game
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 15 18:04
Excited I'll be honest i could't believe my eyes. Bills D may wreak havoc but I think the odds are just plain wrong so i've had a dabble. Think edelman has a big game for the pats, as the bills try and blanket gronk.
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 18:54
Brady looking in mid season form already
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 19:19
Nice of Jay to throw a pick six before he leaves to go to locker room Grin....Bears fans not happy
By:
dlarssonf
When: 20 Sep 15 19:45
bears fan are never happy - its great LaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 19:56
Grin
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 20:10
Arizona going well GH, did them last week in the first round of the eliminator
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 20:10
Will Sean Payton be on a hot seat at the end of the year?......Saints seem to be regressing season after season
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 20:11
Few could be in trouble this week:

MOST POPULAR PICKS IN WEEK 2
New Orleans Saints    37.3%
Baltimore Ravens    15.4%
Miami Dolphins    13.5%
St. Louis Rams    8.5%
Indianapolis Colts    7.5%
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 20:11
Yep looking good at mo Swardean Happy
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 15 20:37
Everything about the saints is just strange.
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 20:38
You put that double on Swardean?
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 20:41
Defensive co-ordinator gets jobs that his record doesn't justify....must be cos his surname's Ryan Mischief
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 20:51
I did GH, but got greedy and ended up backing Eagles on hcap (-5).   Sort of wishing I played safe now with the SU
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 20:54
Good luck....i was gonna back the Eagles all day but couldn't decide how and now the lines have moved so haven't bothered yet.....will wait and see what happens early
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 15 20:56
I like the cowboys at the price
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 21:01
Eagles looked so good in 2nd half against falcons... need to start like that or else Boo boys at Philly could be out as early as week 2 this yearShocked
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 21:09
Well done Bankit.
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 21:12
Eagles offence looked like they took the first half to knock the early season rust off against a decent home team.....
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 21:12
Yes, despite your avatar, WD bankit
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 21:24
Nerve jangler now in BuffaloCry
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 21:24
Have often had the mute on in Buffalo game...have the comms given an update on Williams' condition?
By:
Swardean
When: 20 Sep 15 21:26
Not hear anything and nothing on their official twitter feed
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 15 21:28
And the pats still come out and throw....
By:
Buell Mule
When: 20 Sep 15 21:28
For the evening I took Patriots +1, Texans +3, Raiders +6 & Cowboys +5.5 ... Fearing Buffalo taking Patriots to the wire
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 15 21:32
Ta
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