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db1974
08 Jan 14 12:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
... and I haven't a clue what to back!

Lines are
NO @ SEA -8.0
IND @ NE -7.0 (-7.5 available)
SF @ CAR +1.0 (+1.5 & +2.0 available)
SD @ DEN -9.5 (-9.0 & -10.0 available)

As I posted on NFLUK

This is only the 3rd time since 1990 (96 games) that there is a Home Underdog in the Divisional round (I don't have records prior to that so it is probably more)

The previous 2 times, the Home Dogs won the game outright:

05-Jan-1997: Panthers beat the Cowboys 26-17 as 3.5pt Dogs
14-Jan-2012: 49ers beat the Saints 36-32 as 3.5pt Dogs

Ironic that the 2 teams that won are matched up this weekend

As regards the other 3 matches, again going back to 1990, in Divisional games where the Home Fav is giving up more than a TD, then the Fav is 24-17 ATS

However the results are skewed a bit if you take recent results vs historic results

2004-2013: Home Fav is 6-11
1998-2003: Home Fav is 10-0
1990-1998: Home Fav is 8-6

so there is definitely a shift towards the Road Dog covering the spread since 2004 following years of dominance by the Home Fav. I think this makes sense as home advantage means less and less in the NFL while garbage-time TDs and prevent defence mean that teams often score a TD late on to beat the spread

eg - if you take the Seahawks -8.0 against the Saints then you will probably need them to be 16 points up at some stage in the 4th quarter in order to cover that spread

I just can't pull the trigger on anything this weekend just yet.
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Report db1974 January 12, 2014 10:50 PM GMT
Broncos get the ball 1st in the 2nd half as well
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 12, 2014 10:51 PM GMT
maybe they try a Sean Peyton special to try get the ball 1st, field position doesn't seem to matter much to the Broncos
Report Wallflower January 12, 2014 10:52 PM GMT
.... yep db1974, just going to say that...... does look ominous (at bestGrin)
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 10:52 PM GMT
Chargers won here in a game where everything went right for them. It was never going to happen again but I did think they would be better than this. They barely look like getting a 1st down, let alone a TD
Report incaseof January 12, 2014 10:52 PM GMT
rofl this got to be one of the worst first half performance ever, seriously!!
Report Wallflower January 12, 2014 10:53 PM GMT
.... well at least 2 potentially cracking matches next week.
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 12, 2014 10:54 PM GMT
I can switch to +-0 Denver +16000 Chargers.... any chance of a miracle Chargers win?
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 10:55 PM GMT

Jan 12, 2014 -- 4:54PM, TexassportsagentBuzz wrote:


I can switch to +-0 Denver +16000 Chargers.... any chance of a miracle Chargers win?


LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh

Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 12, 2014 10:56 PM GMT
its 8 times more money than I ever won before if I do it and they win
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 10:56 PM GMT

Jan 12, 2014 -- 4:52PM, incaseof wrote:


rofl this got to be one of the worst first half performance ever, seriously!!


this is their normal game

Report Wallflower January 12, 2014 10:56 PM GMT
....you have a nice profit already, could still have a potentially massive win on Chargers for pittance...but still wouldn't recommendShocked.......its like a mis-match
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 10:58 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report vrk January 12, 2014 10:58 PM GMT
wow
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
amazing footwork
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
Feck it - have to stay up now
Report TheVis January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
lol great interception
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
seriously, best play ive seen this weekend
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
should have done it
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
Cry
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
they wont win texas
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
Brilliant footwork by the DB
Report incaseof January 12, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
SD better take that with them in half time and go out wind in 2nd half
Report GoBallistic January 12, 2014 11:00 PM GMT
Feels like it should be 41-0
Report Swardean January 12, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
early line for next wk Seattle -3.  Expect it to move to +3.5
Report Roger De Bris January 12, 2014 11:12 PM GMT
why move so much?
Report Roger De Bris January 12, 2014 11:13 PM GMT
Rivers 1 passing yard first half...LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 11:13 PM GMT
Line almost never moves off 3

Ever
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:14 PM GMT

Jan 12, 2014 -- 5:13PM, Roger De Bris wrote:


Rivers 1 passing yard first half...


Love

Report Wallflower January 12, 2014 11:14 PM GMT
Chargers 1 passing yardShocked....

......still, hanging in there, well kind of
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 11:15 PM GMT
Novak with a tackle there
Report ClayDavis January 12, 2014 11:15 PM GMT
Hate to remind you guys but peyton tends to better in the 2nd half of games Cool
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
OMAHA
Report Swardean January 12, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
Bit of a damp squib so far
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
HUT HUT OMAHA OMAHA
Report Buell Mule January 12, 2014 11:22 PM GMT
Given stats like Chargers only one running yard, seems a miracle to me it's only 14-0!
Report grayhawk January 12, 2014 11:30 PM GMT
Yep Swardean...very disapponting fare.
Report HowieTheRookie. January 12, 2014 11:30 PM GMT
that missed shirley???
Report Roger De Bris January 12, 2014 11:33 PM GMT
Rivers losin it...
Report Buell Mule January 12, 2014 11:36 PM GMT
Chargers in danger of getting over the half way line here... Then again maybe not Cry
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 11:36 PM GMT
Gonna be a shutout here I think
Report incaseof January 12, 2014 11:39 PM GMT
SD doing everything possible to lose
Report Roger De Bris January 12, 2014 11:39 PM GMT
overs backers reaching for the whiskey....
Report Roger De Bris January 12, 2014 11:44 PM GMT
SD D-line meltdown.
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:44 PM GMT
steelers wouldve put up more of a fight
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:44 PM GMT
Laugh
Report GoBallistic January 12, 2014 11:44 PM GMT
Chargers are getting gashed anyway so why not wait for the snap ?
Report Wallflower January 12, 2014 11:47 PM GMT
... they are hanging in thereHappy......  well defense is anyway
Report punkha1 January 12, 2014 11:47 PM GMT
Think Peyton already has one eye on next week.
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:49 PM GMT
charger still running the ball hahahahahahaha
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 12, 2014 11:50 PM GMT
.....try and try again
Report incaseof January 12, 2014 11:51 PM GMT
Cry dreadful take some shots deep and hurry up, unbelievable
Report punkha1 January 12, 2014 11:52 PM GMT
Norv may be gone but typical mug Chargers stuff.
Report GRANTCKING January 12, 2014 11:55 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Leemo January 12, 2014 11:58 PM GMT
we have a game
Report db1974 January 12, 2014 11:58 PM GMT
Game on

ish
Report punkha1 January 12, 2014 11:59 PM GMT
Have to ask why did the Chargers wait till they were almost dead & buried to start to try to play?
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:05 AM GMT
broncos cant make a down
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:05 AM GMT
might get inersting yet
Report milla445 January 13, 2014 12:06 AM GMT
Such a late flag Shocked
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 12:07 AM GMT
That is a BS call if that's PI
Report milla445 January 13, 2014 12:07 AM GMT
Fix
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:07 AM GMT
lol
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 12:08 AM GMT
What about Welker pushing off at the end
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:10 AM GMT
Of course they want Manning in the S/Bowl
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 12:12 AM GMT
LB tried to kill Welker there and smashed his own man
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:14 AM GMT
manning going to throw the ball down the field or what
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 13, 2014 12:16 AM GMT
is it gsm yet I have switched to womens tennis, next week should have 2 closer games
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:17 AM GMT
TD by the Zebras. Well done NFL
Report Roger De Bris January 13, 2014 12:20 AM GMT
SD beatdown like Tyson v Berbick.
Report milla445 January 13, 2014 12:24 AM GMT
2 quick TDs and they're back in it
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:24 AM GMT
Tyson vs Fraser - that was horrific
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:25 AM GMT
onside kick time
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:31 AM GMT
lmao
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:31 AM GMT
ball game
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 12:32 AM GMT
Crazy sh1t
Report milla445 January 13, 2014 12:32 AM GMT
£75k at 1.01 twitching ever so slightly
Report milla445 January 13, 2014 12:38 AM GMT
Surely they can't recover another one Confused
Report incaseof January 13, 2014 12:38 AM GMT
cant onside kick now
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:38 AM GMT
kick it normal
Report Wallflower January 13, 2014 12:39 AM GMT
....Out of it now for a pittance, made nothing really, bad timing.......was there for the takingCry.
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 13, 2014 12:41 AM GMT
I should have tried for the 16k Cry
Report Colldogg January 13, 2014 12:42 AM GMT
Are we going to get even more drama in this crazy NFL season?? Come on Chargers Laugh
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:43 AM GMT
wow
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:43 AM GMT
punt coming
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:43 AM GMT
3rd and a million
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:44 AM GMT
gsm
Report GRANTCKING January 13, 2014 12:44 AM GMT
no idea how hes made that
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:44 AM GMT
thats the skins secondary there
Report amelia1253 January 13, 2014 12:45 AM GMT
how is he that open why some teams dont deserve 2 win u leave a man like that that open on 3 and 17 shocking
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 12:46 AM GMT
Call the TO
Report Leemo January 13, 2014 12:46 AM GMT
gsm
Report milla445 January 13, 2014 12:48 AM GMT
Ah well, it was fun while it lasted.
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 13, 2014 12:48 AM GMT
may as well have triede the 2nd onside kick
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 12:50 AM GMT
Not really - just made a silly mistake on 3rd-&long
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 13, 2014 12:53 AM GMT
gg
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 13, 2014 12:53 AM GMT
glad you +8 backers also won
Report punkha1 January 13, 2014 12:55 AM GMT
how the **** did the chargers+8 win?
Report Roger De Bris January 13, 2014 12:58 AM GMT
shattered after watching 16 hours of it this weekend...
Report db1974 January 13, 2014 1:01 AM GMT
Thank God the Colts leg of my acca lost yesterday, would have been gutted if DEN -9.5 had scuppered it having dominated that game
Report airbag January 13, 2014 1:08 AM GMT
Broncos -8 matched at 1.1
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